Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-16 (section)

=== 16.4.3 Regional and Sectoral Synthesis of Limits to Adaptation ===

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==== 16.4.3.1 Evidence on Limits to Adaptation ====

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There is ''high agreement'' and ''medium evidence'' that there are limits to adaptation across regions and sectors. However, much of the available evidence focuses on constraints that may lead to limits at some point with little detailed information on how limits may be related to different levels of socioeconomic or environmental change ( ''high confidence'' ). Figure 16.7 assesses evidence on constraints and limits for broad categories of region and sector. Small islands and Central and South America show most evidence of constraints being linked to adaptation limits across sectors, while ocean and coastal ecosystems and health, well-being and communities show most evidence of constraints being linked to limits across regions ( ''medium confidence'' ) ''.''

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'''Figure 16.7 |''' '''Evidence on constraints and limits to adaptation by region and sector.''' Data from [[#Thomas--2021|Thomas et al. (2021)]] , based on 1682 scientific publications reporting on adaptation-related responses in human systems. See SM16.1 for methods. '''Low evidence:''' &lt;20% of assessed literature has information on limits; literature mostly focuses on constraints to adaptation. '''Medium evidence:''' between 20% and 40% of assessed literature has information on limits; literature provides some evidence of constraints being linked to limits. '''High evidence:''' &gt;40% of assessed literature has information on limits; literature provides broad evidence of constraints being linked to limits.

There are clusters of evidence with additional details on limits to adaptation, as detailed in Table 16.3. Evidence on limits to adaptation is largely focused on terrestrial and aquatic species and ecosystems, coastal communities, water security, agricultural production, and human health and heat ( ''high confidence'' ).

Beginning at 1.5°C, autonomous and evolutionary adaptation responses by terrestrial and aquatic species and ecosystems face hard limits, resulting in biodiversity decline, species extinction and loss of related livelihoods ( ''high confidence'' ). Interventionist adaptation strategies to reduce risks for species and ecosystems face soft limits due to governance, financial and knowledge constraints ( ''medium confidence'' ) ''.''

As sea levels rise and extreme events intensify, coastal communities face soft limits due to financial, institutional and socioeconomic constraints reducing the efficacy of coastal protection and accommodation approaches and resulting in loss of life and economic damages ( ''medium confidence'' ) ''.'' Hard limits for coastal communities reliant on nature-based coastal protection will be experienced beginning at 1.5°C ( ''medium confidence'' ).

Beginning at 3°C, hard limits are projected for water management measures, leading to decreased water quality and availability, negative impacts on health and well-being, economic losses in water and energy dependent sectors and potential migration of communities ( ''medium confidence'' ).

Soft and hard limits for agricultural production are related to water availability and the uptake and effectiveness of climate-resilient crops, which is constrained by socioeconomic and political challenges ( ''medium confidence'' ) ''.''

Adaptation measures to address risks of heat stress, heat mortality and reduced capacities for outdoor work for humans face soft and hard limits across regions beginning at 1.5°C and are particularly relevant for regions with warm climates ( ''high confidence'' ).

'''Table 16.3 |''' Adaptation limits and residual risks for select actors and systems. Asterisks indicate confidence level

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Actor/system at risk

! Adaptation limits

! Residual risks

|-
| Terrestrial species in islands at risk to loss of habitat

| Hard: autonomous adaptation unable to overcome loss of habitat and lack of physical space ( c ) (Box [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/16#CCP1.1 CCP1.1] )

| Biodiversity decline, local extinctions, half of all species currently considered to be at risk of extinction occur on islands (Box CCP 1.1)

|-
| Terrestrial species across Africa at risk to habitat changes

| Hard: beyond 2°C, many species will lack suitable climate conditions by 2100 despite migration and dispersal ( c ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.6.4.1|Section 9.6.4.1]] )

| 9% of species face complete range loss ( a ), mountaintop endemics and species at poleward boundaries of African continent at risk of range loss due to disappearing cold climates ( c ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.6.4.1|Section 9.6.4.1]] )

|-
| African aquatic organisms at risk to habitat changes

| Hard: thermal changes above optimal physiological limits will reduce available habitats ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.6.2.4|Section 9.6.2.4]] )

| Greater risks of loss of endemic fish species than generalist fish species ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.6.2.4|Section 9.6.2.4]] )

|-
| African coastal and marine ecosystems at risk to habitat changes

| Hard: at 2°C, bleaching of east African coral reefs ( c ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.6.2.3|Section 9.6.2.3]] )

| Over 90% of east African coral reefs destroyed at 2°C ( c ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.6.2.3|Section 9.6.2.3]] )

|-
| Coral reefs at risk to oceanic changes

| Hard: coral restoration and management no longer effective after 2°C ( c ), enhanced coal and reef shading no longer effective after 3°C ( b ) (Figure 3.23)

| Loss of more than 80% of healthy coral cover, loss of livelihoods dependent on coral reefs ( c ) (Figure 3.23, Table 8.7)

|-
| Cold-adapted species whose habitats are restricted to polar and high mountaintop areas at risk to loss of climate space

| Hard: evolutionary responses unable to keep pace with the rate of climate change and degraded state of ecosystems (Sections 2.6.1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/16#CCP1.2.4.2 CCP1.2.4.2] )

| Species extinctions in the case of species losing their climate space entirely on a regional or global scale (Sections 2.6.1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/16#CCP1.2.4.2 CCP1.2.4.2] )

|-
| Ecosystems in North America at risk to multiple climate hazards

| Soft: governance constraints hinder implementation of adaptation strategies

Hard: some species unable to adapt (Table 14.8)

|
|-
| Ecosystems and species at risk to multiple climate hazards

| Soft: financial and knowledge constraints lead to limits for interventionist approaches such as translocation of species or ecosystem restoration Hard: some habitats unable to be effectively restored ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-2#2.6.6|Section 2.6.6]] )

| Species extinctions and changes, irreversible major biome shifts ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-2#2.6.6|Section 2.6.6]] )

|-
| Coastal settlements in Australia and New Zealand at risk to sea level rise

| Soft and hard: limits in the efficacy of coastal protection and accommodation approaches as sea levels rise and extreme events intensify (Box 11.5)

| With 1–1.1 m of sea level rise, value of coastal urban infrastructure at risk in Australia is AUD 164 to &gt;226 billion, while in NZ it is NZD 43 billion. Sea level rise will also result in significant cultural and archaeological sites disturbed and increasing flood risk and water insecurity with health and well-being impacts on Australia’s small northern islands (Box 11.5)

|-
| Human settlements in

coastal areas in the 1-in-100-year floodplain at risk to coastal flooding

| Soft: socioeconomic, institutional and financial constraints may lead to soft limits well in advance of technical limits of hard engineering measures (Sections [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/16#CCP2.3.4 CCP2.3.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/16#CCP2.3.4 CCP2.3.4] ) Hard: Nature-based measures (e.g., restoration of coral reefs, mangroves, marshes) reach hard limits beginning at 1.5°C of global warming. Retreat strategies reach hard limits as availability and affordability of land decreases (CCPs 2.3.2.3, 2.3.5)

| At 3°C, globally up to 510 million people and up to USD 12,739 billion in assets at risk by 2100 (Section CCP 2.2.1)

|-
| Communities in small islands at risk to freshwater shortages

| Hard: domestic freshwater resources unable to recover from increased drought, sea level rise and decreased precipitation by 2030 (RCP8.5+ ice sheet collapse), 2040 (RCP8.5) or 2060 (RCP4.5) (Box 4.2, [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-4#4.7.2|Section 4.7.2]] )

| Migration of communities due to water shortages with impacts on well-being, community cohesion, livelihoods and people–land relationships (Box 4.2)

|-
| Communities in North America at risk to poor water quality

| Soft: financial and technological constraints lead to limits in ability to treat water for harmful algal blooms (Table 14.8)

|
|-
| Communities in Western and Central Europe at risk to water shortages

| Hard: at 3°C, geophysical and technological limits reached in Southern Europe ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-13#13.10.3|Section 13.10.3.3]] )

| At 3°C, two-thirds of the population of Southern Europe at risk to water security with significant economic losses in water- and energy-dependent sectors ( b ) (Sections 13.2.2, 13.6, 13.10.2.3)

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| Communities in Central and South America at risk to water shortages

| Soft: improved water management as an adaptation strategy unable to overcome lack of trust and stakeholder flexibility, unequal power relations and reduced social learning ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-12#12.5.3.4|Section 12.5.3.4]] )

| Increasing competition and

conflict associated with high economic losses ( b ); glacier shrinkage leading to loss of related livelihoods and cultural values ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-12#12.5.3.1|Section 12.5.3.1]] , Table 8.7)

|-
| Agricultural production in Europe at risk to heat and drought

| Soft: above 3°C, unavailability of water will limit irrigation as an adaptation response ( c ) (Sections 13.5.1, 13.10.2.2)

| At 3–4°C, yield losses for maize may reach up to 50% ( b ) (Sections 13.5.1, 13.10.2.2)

|-
| Crops at risk to temperature increase

| Soft: socioeconomic and political constraints limit uptake of climate-resilient crops ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.4.4.3|Section 5.4.4.3]] ) Hard: after 2°C, cultivar changes unable to offset global production losses ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.4.4.1|Section 5.4.4.1]] )

| Costs of adaptation and residual damages are USD 63 billion at 1.5°C. USD 80 billion at 2°C and USD 128 billion at 3°C, with greater risks and damages in tropical and arid regions ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.4.4.1|Section 5.4.4.1]] )

|-
| Human health in Europe at risk to heat

| Soft: many adaptation measures will not be able to fully mitigate overheating in buildings with high levels of global warming ( c ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-13#13.6.2.3|Section 13.6.2.3]] ) Hard: above 3°C, people and health systems unable to adapt ( c ) (Sections 13.6.2.3, 13.7.2, 13.7.4, 13.10.2.1, 13.8)

| At 1.5°C, 30,000 annual deaths due to extreme heat with up to 90,000 annual deaths at 3°C in 2100 ( c ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-13#13.7.1|Section 13.7.1]] ); at 3°C, thermal comfort hours during summer will decrease by as much as 74% in locations in southern Europe ( c ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-13#13.6.1.5|Section 13.6.1.5]] )

|-
| Human health at risk to heat

| Soft: socioeconomic constraints limit adaptation responses to extreme heat ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-7#7.4.2.6|Section 7.4.2.6]] , Table 8.7)

| Globally, the impact of projected climate change on temperature-related mortality is expected to be a net increase under RCP4.5 to RCP8.5, even with adaptation, particularly for regions with warm climates ( d ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-7#7.3.1|Section 7.3.1]] , Table 8.7)

|-
| South Asian settlements at risk to coastal flooding, drought, sea level rise and heatwaves

| Soft and hard: at 4.5°C, maximum temperature is expected to exceed survivability threshGold across most of South Asia, particularly relevant for outdoor work ( a ) (Table 10.6)

| At RCP4.5, 25–50% of population affected; at RCP8.5, more than 50% of population affected; at 4.5°C of warming, increase in heat-related deaths of 12.7% in South Asia ( a ) (Table 10.6)

|-
| Tourism in Europe reliant on snow at risk to higher levels of warming

| Soft: at 3°C, snowmaking as an adaptation measure limited by biophysical and financial constraints ( c ) (Sections 13.6.1.4, 13.6.2.3)

| Damages in European tourism with larger losses in Southern Europe ( c ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-13#13.6.1.4|Section 13.6.1.4]] )

|-
| Rapidly growing towns/cities and smaller cities at risk to range of climate hazards

| Soft: governance and financial constraints lead to limits in ability to adapt (Sections 6.3, 6.4)

|
|}

Notes:

(a) ''low confidence''

(b) ''medium confidence''

(c) ''high confidence''

(d) ''very high confidence.''

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==== 16.4.3.2 Constraints Leading to Limits to Adaptation ====

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Across regions and sectors, a range of constraints (Figure 16.8) are identified as leading to limits to adaptation, particularly financial constraints and constraints related to governance, institutions and policy ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' While individual constraints may appear straightforward to address, the combination of constraints interacting with each other leads to soft limits that are difficult to overcome ( ''high confidence'' ). The interplay of many different constraints that lead to limits makes it difficult to categorise limits beyond being either soft or hard.

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'''Figure 16.8 |''' '''Constraints associated with limits by region and sector.''' Data from [[#Thomas--2021|Thomas et al. (2021)]] , based on 1682 scientific publications reporting on adaptation-related responses in human systems. See SM16.1 for methods. Constraints are categorised as: (1) economic: existing livelihoods, economic structures, and economic mobility; (2) social/cultural: social norms, identity, place attachment, beliefs, worldviews, values, awareness, education, social justice, and social support; (3) human capacity: individual, organisational, and societal capabilities to set and achieve adaptation objectives over time including training, education, and skill development; (4) governance, institutions and policy: existing laws, regulations, procedural requirements, governance scope, effectiveness, institutional arrangements, adaptive capacity, and absorption capacity; (5) financial: lack of financial resources; (6) information/awareness/technology: lack of awareness or access to information or technology; (7) physical: presence of physical barriers; and (8) biologic/climatic: temperature, precipitation, salinity, acidity, and intensity and frequency of extreme events including storms, drought, and wind. '''Insufficient data:''' there is not enough literature to support an assessment (fewer than five studies available); '''Minor constraint:''' &lt;20% of assessed literature identifies this constraint; '''Secondary constraint:''' 20–50% of assessed literature identifies this constraint; '''Primary constraint:''' &gt;50% of assessed literature identifies this constraint.

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==== 16.4.3.3 Climate Change Impacts, Financial Constraints and Limits to Adaptation ====

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Across regions and sectors, financial constraints are identified as significant and contributing to limits to adaptation, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries ( ''high confidence'' ) (Sections 3.6.3, 4.7.2, 5.14.3, 6.4.5, 7.4.2, 8.4.5, 12.5.1, 12.5.2, 15.6.1, 15.6.3, Figure 16.8, Table 16.4, Section [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/16#CCP2.4.2 CCP2.4.2] ). Impacts of climate change may increase financial constraints ( ''high confidence'' ) and contribute to soft limits to adaptation being reached ( ''medium confidence'' ). Table 16.5 details climate impact observations that point to potentially substantial negative impacts on the availability of financial resources for different regions.

At the national level, negative macroeconomic responses to climate change may limit the availability of financial resources, impede access to financial markets and stunt economic growth ( ''high confidence'' ). Economic growth has been shown to decline under higher temperatures ( [[#Burke--2015|Burke et al., 2015]] ; [[#Kahn--2019|Kahn et al., 2019]] , [[#16.5.2.3|Section 16.5.2.3.4]] ) and following extreme events ( [[#Hsiang--2014|Hsiang and Jina, 2014]] ; [[#IMF--2017|IMF, 2017]] ), particularly for medium- and low-income developing countries ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-18#18.1|Section 18.1]] ). The most severe impacts of climate-related disasters on economic growth per capita have been observed in developing countries, although authors note a publication bias in the reporting of negative effects ( [[#Klomp--2014|Klomp and Valckx, 2014]] ). Substantial immediate output losses and reduced economic growth due to extreme events have been observed in both the short and long term ( [[#16.2.3|Section 16.2.3]] ). Estimates of the duration of negative effects of climate-related disasters differ, with some analyses suggesting that, on average, economies recover after 2 years ( [[#Klomp--2016|Klomp, 2016]] ) and others finding negative effects of cyclones to persist 15–20 years following an event ( [[#Hsiang--2014|Hsiang and Jina, 2014]] ; [[#IMF--2017|IMF, 2017]] ). Rising climate vulnerability has also been shown to increase the cost of debt ( [[#Kling--2018|Kling et al., 2018]] ). Rising climatic risks negatively affect developing countries’ ability to access financial markets ( [[#Cevik--2020|Cevik and Jalles, 2020]] ), and their disclosure may result in capital flight (Cross-Chapter Box FINANCE in Chapter 17). Overall, the direct and indirect economic effects of climate change represent a major risk to financial system stability ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-11#11.5.2|Section 11.5.2]] ). These risks and effects may further limit the availability of financial resources needed to overcome constraints, in particular for developing countries.

Sectoral studies indicate that climate impacts will result in higher levels of losses and damages and decreases in income, thereby increasing financial constraints ( ''medium confidence'' ). Yield losses for major agricultural crops are expected in nearly all world regions (Figure 5.7). Decreases in estimated marine fish catch potential and large economic impacts from ocean acidification are expected globally, leading to the risk of revenue loss ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.8.3|Section 5.8.3]] ). Losses of primary productivity and farmed species of shellfish are expected in tropical and subtropical regions ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.9.3.2.2|Section 5.9.3.2.2]] ). Economic losses have been observed in the power generation sector and transport infrastructure ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.4.6.3.8|Section 10.4.6.3.8]] ), including economic losses from floods in urban areas ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-4#4.2.4|Section 4.2.4.5]] ). However, some positive sectoral climate change impacts have been identified for the timber and forestry sector ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.6.2|Section 5.6.2]] ), for primary productivity and farmed species of shellfish in high-latitude regions ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.9.3.2.2|Section 5.9.3.2.2]] ) and for agriculture in high-latitude regions ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.4.1.1|Section 5.4.1.1]] ).

At the household or community level, climate impacts may increase financial constraints ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Impacts on agriculture and food prices could force between 3 and 16 million people into extreme poverty ( [[#Hallegatte--2017|Hallegatte and Rozenberg, 2017]] ). Within-country inequality is expected to increase following extreme weather events ( [[#16.2.3.6|Section 16.2.3.6]] and Chapter 8). Households affected by climate-related extreme events may be faced with continuous reconstruction efforts following extreme events ( [[#Adelekan--2015|Adelekan and Fregene, 2015]] ) or declines in critical livelihood resources in the agriculture, fisheries and tourism sectors ( [[#Forster--2014|Forster et al., 2014]] , [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.5.1|Section 3.5.1]] ). Further erosion of livelihood security of vulnerable households creates the risk of poverty traps, particularly for rural and urban landless (Sections 8.2.1, 8.3.3.1), for example in Malawi and Ethiopia ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.9.3|Section 9.9.3]] ). Levels of labour productivity and economic outputs are projected to decrease as temperatures rise particularly in urban areas ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-6#6.2.3.1|Section 6.2.3.1]] ). At the same time, higher utilities demand under higher urban temperatures exerts additional economic stresses on urban residents and households. Substantial, negative impacts on the livelihoods of over 180 million people are expected from changes to African grassland productivity ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.5.3.1|Section 5.5.3.1]] ). In Western Uzbekistan, farmers’ incomes are at risk of declining ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.4.5.3|Section 10.4.5.3]] ). For SIDS, loss of livelihoods is expected due to negative climatic impacts on coastal environments and resources ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.5.1|Section 3.5.1]] ). Negative effects on households from extreme events can also persist in the long term and in multiple dimensions. Exposure to disasters during the first year of life significantly reduces the number of years of schooling and increases the chances of being unemployed as an adult and living in a multidimensionally poor household ( [[#González--2021|González et al., 2021]] ).

'''Table 16.5 |''' Evidence of climate change impacts affecting availability of financial resources.

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! Region

! Evidence of climate change impacts affecting availability of financial resources

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| Africa

| Negative consequences for economic growth and GDP growth rate from higher average temperatures and lower rainfall ( c ) (Sections 9.9.1.1, 9.9.2, 9.9.3)

Economic losses from damage to infrastructure in the energy, transport, water supply, communication services, housing, health and education sectors (observed) (Sections 9.7.2.2, 9.8.2)

|-
| Asia

| High coastal damages due to sea level rise (China, India, Korea, Japan, Russia) ( c ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.4.6.3.4|Section 10.4.6.3.4]] )

Decline in aquaculture production ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.4.5.2.1|Section 10.4.5.2.1]] )

Loss of coastal ecosystem services (Bangladesh) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.9.3.2.4|Section 5.9.3.2.4]] )

|-
| Australasia

| Loss of wealth and negative impacts on GDP (Sections 11.5.1.2, 11.5.2.2)

High disaster costs (observed in Australia, New Zealand) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-11#11.5.2.1|Section 11.5.2.1]] )

|-
| Central and South America

| High costs of extreme events relative to GDP (observed in Guatemala, Belize) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-12#12.3.1.4|Section 12.3.1.4]] )

Decrease in growth of total GDP per capita and total income and labour income from one standard deviation in the intensity of a hurricane windstorm ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-12#12.3.1.4|Section 12.3.1.4]] )

|-
| Europe

| Negative combined effect of multiple risks on economy for Europe in total ( b ) (Sections 13.9.1, 13.10.2)

Negative combined effect of multiple risks on economy for Southern Europe ( c ) (Sections 13.9.1, 13.10.2)

High economic costs in agriculture and construction following heatwaves and flooding (Sections 6.2.3.2, 7.4.2.2.1)

|-
| North America

| Small but persistent negative economy wide effect on GDP (observed in the USA and Mexico) ( b ) (Box 14.5)

Economic risks associated with high-temperature scenarios ( c ) (Box 14.5)

Small but persistent positive economy wide effect on GDP (observed in Canada) ( b ) (Box 14.5)

Significant economic costs for urban, natural and ecosystem infrastructure (USA) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-6#6.2.5|Section 6.2.5.9]] )

High economic damages for a subset of sectors from high warming (southern and southeastern USA) (Box 14.5)

Adverse effects on municipal budgets due to costly liabilities, and disruption of financial markets (Box 14.5)

|-
| Small islands

| High economic costs relative to GDP from extreme events, particularly tropical cyclones (observed) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-15#15.3.4.1|Section 15.3.4.1]] )

Negative long-term implications of extreme events for state budgets ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-8#8.2.1.4|Section 8.2.1.4]] )

Inundation of almost all port and harbour facilities (Caribbean) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-15#15.3.4.1|Section 15.3.4.1]] )

|}

Notes:

(a) ''low confidence''

(b) ''medium confidence''

(c) ''high confidence''

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