Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-9 (section)

=== 9.7.1 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Buildings ===

<div id="h2-22-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

A large body of literature on climate impacts on buildings focuses on the impacts of climate change on heating and cooling needs ( [[#de%20Wilde--2012|de Wilde and Coley 2012]] ; [[#Wan--2012|Wan et al. 2012]] ; [[#Andrić--2019|Andrić et al. 2019]] ). The associated impacts on energy consumption are expected to be higher in hot summer and warm winter climates, where cooling needs are more relevant ( [[#Li--2012|Li et al. 2012]] ; [[#Wan--2012|Wan et al. 2012]] ; [[#Andrić--2019|Andrić et al. 2019]] ). If not met, this higher demand for thermal comfort can impact health, sleep quality and work productivity, having disproportionate effects on vulnerable populations and exacerbating energy poverty ( [[#Biardeau--2020|Biardeau et al. 2020]] ; [[#Sun--2020|Sun et al. 2020]] ; [[#Falchetta--2021|Falchetta and Mistry 2021]] ) ( [[#9.8|Section 9.8]] ).

Increasing temperatures can lead to higher cooling needs and, therefore, energy consumption ( [[#Li--2012|Li et al. 2012]] ; [[#Schaeffer--2012|Schaeffer et al. 2012]] ; [[#Wan--2012|Wan et al. 2012]] ; [[#Clarke--2018|Clarke et al. 2018]] ; International Energy Agency 2018; [[#Andrić--2019|Andrić et al. 2019]] ). Higher temperatures increase the number of days/hours in which cooling is required and as outdoor temperatures increase, the cooling load to maintain the same indoor temperature will be higher ( [[#Andrić--2019|Andrić et al. 2019]] ). These two effects are often measured by cooling degree-days [[#footnote-001|1]] (CDD) and there is a vast literature on studies at the global ( [[#Isaac--2009|Isaac and van Vuuren 2009]] ; [[#Atalla--2018|Atalla et al. 2018]] ; [[#Clarke--2018|Clarke et al. 2018]] ; [[#Mistry--2019|Mistry 2019]] ; [[#Biardeau--2020|Biardeau et al. 2020]] ) and regional level ( [[#Zhou--2014|Zhou et al. 2014]] ; [[#Bezerra--2021|Bezerra et al. 2021]] ; [[#Falchetta--2021|Falchetta and Mistry 2021]] ). Other studies use statistical econometric analyses to capture the empirical relationship between climate variables and energy consumption ( [[#Auffhammer--2014|Auffhammer and Mansur 2014]] ; [[#van%20Ruijven--2019|van Ruijven et al. 2019]] ). A third effect is that higher summer temperatures can incentivise the purchase of space cooling equipment ( [[#Auffhammer--2014|Auffhammer 2014]] ; [[#De%20Cian--2019|De Cian et al. 2019]] ; [[#Biardeau--2020|Biardeau et al. 2020]] ), especially in developing countries ( [[#Pavanello--2021|Pavanello et al. 2021]] ).

The impacts of increased energy demand for cooling can have systemic repercussions ( [[#Ciscar--2014|Ciscar and Dowling 2014]] ; [[#Ralston%20Fonseca--2019|Ralston Fonseca et al. 2019]] ), which in turn can affect the provision of other energy services. Space cooling can be an important determinant of peak demand, especially in periods of extreme heat (International Energy Agency 2018). Warmer climates and higher frequency and intensity of heat waves can lead to higher loads ( [[#Dirks--2015|Dirks et al. 2015]] ; [[#Auffhammer--2017|Auffhammer et al. 2017]] ), increasing the risk of grid failure and supply interruptions.

Although heating demand in cold climate regions can be expected to decrease with climate change and, to a certain extent, outweigh the increase in cooling demand, the effects on total primary energy requirements are uncertain ( [[#Li--2012|Li et al. 2012]] ; [[#Wan--2012|Wan et al. 2012]] ). Studies have found that increases in buildings energy expenditures for cooling more than compensate the savings from lower heating demands in most regions ( [[#Clarke--2018|Clarke et al. 2018]] ). In addition, climate change may affect the economic feasibility of district heating systems ( [[#Andrić--2019|Andrić et al. 2019]] ).

In cold climates, a warming climate can potentially increase the risk of overheating in high-performance buildings with increased insulation and airtightness to reduce heat losses ( [[#Gupta--2012|Gupta and Gregg 2012]] ). In such situations, the need for active cooling technologies may arise, along with higher energy consumption and GHG emissions ( [[#Gupta--2015|Gupta et al. 2015]] ).

Changes in cloud formation can affect global solar irradiation and, therefore, the output of solar photovoltaic panels, possibly affecting on-site renewable energy production ( [[#Burnett--2014|Burnett et al. 2014]] ). The efficiency of solar photovoltaic panels and their electrical components decreases with higher temperatures ( [[#Bahaidarah--2013|Bahaidarah et al. 2013]] ; [[#Simioni--2019|Simioni and Schaeffer 2019]] ). However, studies have found that such effects can be relatively small ( [[#Totschnig--2017|Totschnig et al. 2017]] ), making solar PV a robust option to adapt to climate change ( [[#Shen--2016|Shen and Lior 2016]] ; [[#Santos--2021|Santos and Lucena 2021]] ) (see [[#9.4|Section 9.4]] ).

Climate change can also affect the performance, durability and safety of buildings and their elements (facades, structure, etc.) through changes in temperature, humidity, wind, and chloride and CO 2 concentrations ( [[#Bastidas-Arteaga--2010|Bastidas-Arteaga et al. 2010]] ; [[#Bauer--2018|Bauer et al. 2018]] ; [[#Rodríguez-Rosales--2021|Rodríguez-Rosales et al. 2021]] ; [[#Chen--2021|Chen et al. 2021]] ). Historical buildings and coastal areas tend to be more vulnerable to these changes ( [[#Huijbregts--2012|Huijbregts et al. 2012]] ; [[#Mosoarca--2019|Mosoarca et al. 2019]] ; [[#Cavalagli--2019|Cavalagli et al. 2019]] ; [[#Rodríguez-Rosales--2021|Rodríguez-Rosales et al. 2021]] ).

Temperature variations affect the building envelope, for example, with cracks and detachment of coatings ( [[#Bauer--2016|Bauer et al. 2016]] , 2018). Higher humidity (caused by wind-driven rain, snow or floods) hastens deterioration of bio-based materials such as wood and bamboo ( [[#Brambilla--2020|Brambilla and Gasparri 2020]] ), also deteriorating indoor air quality and users health ( [[#Huijbregts--2012|Huijbregts et al. 2012]] ; [[#Grynning--2017|Grynning et al. 2017]] ; [[#Lee--2020|Lee et al. 2020]] ).

Climate change can accelerate the degradation of reinforced concrete structures due to the increase of chloride ingress ( [[#Bastidas-Arteaga--2010|Bastidas-Arteaga et al. 2010]] ) and the concentration of CO 2 , which increase the corrosion of the embedded steel ( [[#Stewart--2012|Stewart et al. 2012]] ; [[#Peng--2016|Peng and Stewart 2016]] ; [[#Chen--2021|Chen et al. 2021]] ). Corrosion rates are higher in places with higher humidity and humidity fluctuations ( [[#Guo--2019|Guo et al. 2019]] ), and degradation could be faster with combined effects of higher temperatures and more frequent and intense precipitations ( [[#Bastidas-Arteaga--2010|Bastidas-Arteaga et al. 2010]] ; [[#Chen--2021|Chen et al. 2021]] ).

Higher frequency and intensity of hurricanes, storm surges and coastal and non-coastal flooding can escalate economic losses to civil infrastructure, especially when associated with population growth and urbanisation in hazardous areas ( [[#Bjarnadottir--2011|Bjarnadottir et al. 2011]] ; [[#Li--2016|Li et al. 2016]] ; [[#Lee--2017|Lee and Ellingwood 2017]] ). Climate change should increase the risk and exposure to damage from flood ( [[#de%20Ruig--2019|de Ruig et al. 2019]] ), sea level rise ( [[#Bosello--2014|Bosello and De Cian 2014]] ; [[#Zanetti--2016|Zanetti et al. 2016]] ; [[#Bove--2020|Bove et al. 2020]] ) and more frequent wildfires ( [[#Barkhordarian--2018|Barkhordarian et al. 2018]] ; [[#Craig--2020|Craig et al. 2020]] ).

<div id="9.7.2" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="links-between-mitigation-and-adaptation-in-buildings"></span>