Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-5 (section)

===== 5.4.2.1.3 Food security =====

Seafood provides protein, fatty acids, vitamins and other micronutrients essential for human health such as iodine and selenium (Golden et al., 2016). Over 4.5 billion people in the world obtain more than 15% of their protein intake from seafood, including algae and marine mammals as well as fish and shellfish (Béné et al., 2015; FAO, 2017)). Around 1.39 billion people obtain at least 20% of their supply of essential micronutrients from fish (Golden et al., 2016). SR15 concluded that global warming poses large risks to food security globally and regionally, especially in low-latitude areas, including fisheries ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018). This section builds on the assessment on observed and projected climate impacts on fish catches (Section 5.4.1.1) and further assess how such impacts interact with other climatic and non-climatic drivers in affecting food security through fisheries.

Many populations that are already facing challenges in food insecurity reside in low-latitude regions such as in the Pacific Islands and West Africa where maximum fisheries catch potential is projected to decrease under climate change security (Golden et al., 2016; Hilmi et al., 2017) (Section 5.4.1; Figure 5.21) and where land-based food production is also at risk (Blanchard et al., 2017) ( ''medium confidence'' ). Populations in these regions are also estimated to have the highest proportion of their micronutrient intake relative to the total animal sourced food (Golden et al., 2016) (ASF; Figure 5.21). This highlights their strong dependence on seafood as a source of nutrition that further elevates their vulnerability to food security from climate change impacts on seafood supply ( ''high confidence'' ). Modeling of seafood trade networks suggests that Central and West African nations are particularly vulnerable to shocks from decrease in seafood supply from international imports; thus their climate risks of seafood insecurity could be exacerbated by climate impacts on catches and seafood supply elsewhere (Gephart et al., 2016). In addition, experimental studies suggest that warming and ocean acidification reduce the nutritional quality of some seafood by reducing levels of protein, lipid and omega-3 fatty acids (Tate et al., 2017; Ab Lah et al., 2018; Lemasson et al., 2019).

Non-climatic factors may exacerbate climate effects on seafood security. Over-exploitation of fish stocks reduces fish catches (Section 5.4.1.1) (Golden et al., 2016), whilst strong cultural dependence on seafood in many coastal communities may pose constraints in their adaptive capacity to changing fish availability (Marushka et al., 2019). The shift from traditional nutritious wild caught seafood-based diets of coastal indigenous communities, towards increased consumption of processed energy dense foods high in fat, refined sugar and sodium, due to social and economic changes (Kuhnlein and Receveur, 1996; Shannon, 2002; Charlton et al., 2016; Batal et al., 2017), has important consequences on diet quality and nutritional status (Thaman, 1982; Quinn et al., 2012; Luick et al., 2014). This has led to an increased prevalence of obesity, diabetes, and other diet-related chronic diseases (Gracey, 2007; Sheikh et al., 2011) as well as the related decrease in access to culturally or religiously significant food items. The risk of climate change on coastal communities through the ocean could therefore be increased by non-climatic factors such as economic development, trade, effectiveness of resource governance and cultural changes ( ''high confidence'' ).

In summary, the food security of many coastal communities, particularly in low-latitude developing regions, is vulnerable to decreases in seafood supply ( ''medium confidence'' ) because of their strong dependence on seafood to meet their basic nutritional requirements ( ''medium confidence'' ), limited alternative sources of some of the essential nutrients obtained from seafood ( ''medium confidence'' ), and exposure to multiple hazards on their food security ( ''high confidence'' ). Although direct evidence from attribution analysis is not available, climate change may have already contributed to malnutrition by decreasing seafood supply in these vulnerable communities ( ''low confidence'' ) and reduce coastal Indigenous communities’ reliance on seafood-based diets ( ''low confidence'' ). Projected decreases in potential fish catches in tropical areas ( ''high confidence'' ) and a possible decrease in the nutritional content of seafood ( ''low confidence'' ) will further increase the risk of impacts on food security in low-latitude developing regions, with that risk being greater under high emission scenarios ( ''medium confidence'' ).

<span id="figure-5.21"></span>
<!-- START IMG -->
<!-- IMG TITLE -->
'''Figure 5.21'''

<span id="figure-5.21-over-the-ocean-the-projected-changes-in-catch-potential-section-5.4.1.1-and-on-land-each-countries-current-proportion-of-fish-micronutrient-intake-relative-to-the-total-animal-sourced-food-asf-golden-et-al.-2016.-the-colour-scale-on-land-is-the-proportion-of-fish-micronutrient-intake-relative-to-the-total-asf-the"></span>
<!-- IMG CAPTION -->
'''Figure 5.21 | Over the ocean the projected changes in catch potential (Section 5.4.1.1), and on land, each countries current proportion of fish micronutrient intake relative to the total animal sourced food (ASF) (Golden et al. 2016). The colour scale on land is the proportion of fish micronutrient intake relative to the total ASF; the […]'''
<!-- IMG FILE -->
[[File:53e7771cb08d06311a22bb6ab94cd184 IPCC-SROCC-CH_5_21-2.jpg]]

Figure 5.21 | Over the ocean the projected changes in catch potential (Section 5.4.1.1), and on land, each countries current proportion of fish micronutrient intake relative to the total animal sourced food (ASF) (Golden et al. 2016). The colour scale on land is the proportion of fish micronutrient intake relative to the total ASF; the scale on the ocean is projected change in maximum catch potential under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5 by 2100 relative to the 2000s.

<!-- END IMG -->
<div id="section-5-4-2-2cultural-and-other-social-dimensions"></div>

<span id="cultural-and-other-social-dimensions"></span>