Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-11 (section)

=== 11.3.7 Tourism ===

<div id="h2-11-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

<div id="11.3.7.1" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="observed-impacts-9"></span>
==== 11.3.7.1 Observed Impacts ====

<div id="h3-20-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

Tourism is a major economic driver in the region, accounting for 3% (Australia) and 6% (New Zealand) of GDP pre-COVID-19 ( [[#WTTC--2018|WTTC, 2018]] ). Climate change is having significant impacts on tourism due to the heavy reliance of the sector on natural heritage and outdoor attractions (11.3.1; Box 11.2). Furthermore, because Australia and New Zealand are both long-haul destinations, a global increase in ‘flygskam’ (flight shame) will likely impact travel patterns ( [[#Becken--2021|Becken et al., 2021]] ).

Impacts of climate change are being observed across the tourism system ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Scott--2019a|Scott et al., 2019a]] ), most notably the GBR (Box 11.2) ( [[#Ma--2019|Ma and Kirilenko, 2019]] ). Australia’s ski industry is very sensitive to climatic change, due to reductions in snow depth and snow season length (Table 11.2) ( [[#Steiger--2019|Steiger et al., 2019]] ; [[#Knowles--2020|Knowles and Scott, 2020]] ). The 2019–2020 summer wildfires (Box 11.1) impacted tourism and travel infrastructure, affecting air quality, vineyards and wineries ( [[#CoA--2020e|CoA, 2020e]] ; [[#Filkov--2020|Filkov et al., 2020]] ). Global media coverage of the wildfires, alongside Australia’s climate change policy response, profoundly and negatively, affected Australia’s destination image ( [[#Schweinsberg--2020|Schweinsberg et al., 2020]] ; [[#Wen--2020|Wen et al., 2020]] ). In New Zealand’s South Island, Fox and Franz Josef Glaciers have retreated approximately 700 m since 2008, with ice melt and retreat resulting in increased rock fall risks and negatively affecting the tourist experience ( [[#Purdie--2013|Purdie, 2013]] ; [[#Stewart--2016|Stewart et al., 2016]] ; [[#Wang--2019|Wang and Zhou, 2019]] ). The west coast of New Zealand is extremely prone to flooding events, impacting amenity values and access ( [[#Paulik--2019a|Paulik et al., 2019a]] ). Damage to tracks, huts and bridges have closed popular destinations, including the Hooker Glacier and the popular Routeburn and Heaphy Tracks during heavy rainfall events ( [[#Christie--2020|Christie et al., 2020]] ). Climate-driven damage is motivating ‘last chance’ tourism to see key natural heritage and outdoor attractions, for example, GBR ( [[#Piggott-McKellar--2016|Piggott-McKellar and McNamara, 2016]] ) and Franz Josef and Fox Glaciers ( [[#Stewart--2016|Stewart et al., 2016]] ).

<div id="11.3.7.2" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="projected-impacts-9"></span>
==== 11.3.7.2 Projected Impacts ====

<div id="h3-21-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

Widespread impacts from projected climate change are ''very likely'' across the tourism sector. The World Heritage listed Kakadu National Park in Australia is projected to experience increasing severity of cyclones ( [[#Turton--2014|Turton, 2014]] ), and sea level rise (SLR) is projected to affect freshwater wetlands (11.3.1.2; Table 11.5) ( [[#McInnes--2015|McInnes et al., 2015]] ) and Indigenous rock art ( [[#Higham--2016|Higham et al., 2016]] ; [[#Hughes--2018a|Hughes et al., 2018a]] ). The projected increase in the number of hot days in northern and inland Australia may impact the attractiveness of the region for tourists ( [[#Amelung--2014|Amelung and Nicholls, 2014]] ; [[#Webb--2015|Webb and Hennessy, 2015]] ). Coastal erosion and flooding of Australasian beaches due to sea level rise (SLR) and intensifying storm activity are estimated to increase by 60% on the Sunshine Coast by 2030, causing significant damage to tourist-related infrastructure ( [[#Hughes--2018a|Hughes et al., 2018a]] ). Urgent ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ adaptation strategies are projected to help reduce sea level rise (SLR) impacts ( [[#Becken--2016|Becken and Wilson, 2016]] ).

Glacier tourism, a multi-million-dollar industry in New Zealand, is potentially under threat because glacier volumes are projected to decrease ( ''very high confidence'' ) ( [[#Purdie--2013|Purdie, 2013]] ) ''.'' Glacier volume reductions of 50–92% by 2099 relative to the present reflect the large range of temperature projections between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Under RCP2.6 at 2099, the glaciers retain a similar configuration to present, although clean-ice glaciers will retreat significantly. For RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, the clean-ice glaciers will retreat to become small remnants in the high mountains (Anderson et al. 2021).

Snow skiing faces significant challenges from climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). In Australia, the annual maximum snow depth is estimated to decrease from current levels by 15% (2030) and 60% by 2070 (SRES A2) ( [[#Di%20Luca--2018|Di Luca et al., 2018]] ). By 2070–2099, relative to 2000–2010, the length of the Victorian ski season is projected to contract by 65–90% under RCP8.5 ( [[#Harris--2016|Harris et al., 2016]] ). The New Zealand tourism destination of Queenstown is expected to experience declining snowfall, increased wind and more severe weather events ( [[#Becken--2016|Becken and Wilson, 2016]] ). Ski tourism stakeholders have been responding to longer-term climate risks with an increase in snow-making machines in New Zealand since 2013 ( [[#Hopkins--2015|Hopkins, 2015]] ) and in Australia ( [[#Harris--2016|Harris et al., 2016]] ).

<div id="11.3.7.3" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="adaptation-9"></span>
==== 11.3.7.3 Adaptation ====

<div id="h3-22-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

Current snow-making technologies are expected to sustain the ski industry until mid-century. However, with warmer winter temperatures and declining water availability, snow-making is projected to decrease to half at most resorts by 2030 ( [[#Harris--2016|Harris et al., 2016]] ). New Zealand’s ski industry may benefit from Australian skiers visiting New Zealand due to lower relative vulnerability ( [[#Hopkins--2015|Hopkins, 2015]] ). However, tourists may substitute destinations or ski less in the absence of snow ( ''medium agreement, limited evidence'' ) ( [[#Cocolas--2015|Cocolas et al., 2015]] ; [[#Walters--2015|Walters and Ruhanen, 2015]] ).

With the exception of the ski industry ( [[#Becken--2013|Becken, 2013]] ; [[#Hopkins--2015|Hopkins, 2015]] ), tourism stakeholders generally focus on coping with short-term weather events, rather than longer-term climate risks, but they do exhibit high adaptive capacity by diversifying their activities ( [[#Stewart--2016|Stewart et al., 2016]] ). Post-COVID-19 pandemic economics and recovery policies challenge this sector’s prospects, and the combination of COVID-19 and climate change (e.g., fires, floods) has also highlighted the need for the tourism sector to be able to respond to multiple, overlapping crises.

There is limited evidence that research into the impact of climate change on tourism in Australia and New Zealand is translating into policy or action ( [[#Moyle--2017|Moyle et al., 2017]] ). New Zealand government tourism sector strategies acknowledge this and the need for greater understanding of climate change for the sector ( [[#TIA--2019|TIA, 2019]] ) but do not offer solutions ( [[#MBIE--2019b|MBIE, 2019b]] ; [[#MfE--2020a|MfE, 2020a]] ). The COVID-19 pandemic and the global pause of international travel offer an opportunity to potentially ‘reset’ tourism to account for the impacts of climate change ( [[#Prideaux--2020|Prideaux et al., 2020]] ).

<div id="11.3.8" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="finance"></span>