Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-15 (section)

=== FAQ 15.3 | How will climate-related changes affect the contributions of agriculture and fisheries to food security in small islands? ===

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''Agriculture and fisheries are heavily influenced by climate, which means a change in occurrence of TCs, air temperature, ocean temperature and/or rainfall can have considerable impacts on the production and availability of crops and seafood and therefore the health and welfare of island inhabitants. Projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries in some cases will enhance productivity, but in many cases could undermine food production, greatly exacerbating food insecurity challenges for human populations in small islands.''

Small islands mostly depend on rain-fed agriculture, which is likely to be affected in various ways by climate change, including loss of agricultural land through floods and droughts, and contamination of freshwater and soil through salt-water intrusion, warming temperatures leading to stresses of crops, and extreme events such as cyclones. In some islands, crops that have been traditionally part of people’s diet can no longer be cultivated due to such changes. For example, severe rainfall during planting seasons can damage seedlings, reduce growth and provide conditions that promote plant pests and diseases.

Changes in the frequency and severity of TCs or droughts will pose challenges for many islands. For example, more pronounced dry seasons, warmer temperatures and greater evaporation could cause plant stress reducing productivity and harvests. The impacts of drought may hinder insects and animals from pollinating crops, trees and other vegetative food sources on tropical islands. For instance, many agroforestry crops are completely dependent on insect pollination, and it is, therefore, important to monitor and recognise how climate change is affecting the number and productivity of these insects. Coastal agroforest systems in small islands are important to national food security but rely on biodiversity (e.g., insects for pollination services). Biodiversity loss from traditional agroecosystems has been identified as one of the most serious threats to food and livelihood security in islands. Ecosystem-based adaptation practices and diversification of crop varieties are possible solutions.

The continuous reduction of soil fertility as well as increasing incidences of pests, diseases and invasive species contribute to the growing vulnerability of the agricultural systems on small islands. Higher temperatures could increase the presence of food- or water-borne diseases and the challenge of managing food safety. Changes in weather patterns can also disrupt food transportation and distribution systems on islands where indigenous communities are often located in remote areas.

Impacts of climate change on fisheries in small islands result from ocean temperature change, SLR, extreme weather patterns such as cyclones, reducing ocean oxygen concentrations and ocean acidification. These combined pressures are leading to the widespread loss or damage to marine habitats such as coral reefs but also mangroves and seagrass beds and consequently of important fish species that depend on these habitats and are crucial both to the food security (a high proportion of dietary protein is derived from seafood) and incomes of island communities. Shifting ocean currents and warming waters are also changing the distribution of pelagic fish stocks, especially of open-water tuna, with further consequences for both local food security and national economies, where they are often highly dependent on income from fishing licenses (e.g., 98% of GDP in Tokelau, 66% of national income in Kiribati).

Climate change is projected to have profound effects on the future status and distribution of coastal and oceanic habitats, and consequently of the fish and invertebrates they support. High water temperature causes changes in the growth rate of fish species as well as the timing of spawning and migration patterns, with consequences for fisheries catch potential. Some small island countries and territories are projected to experience more than 50% declines in fishery catches by 2100. Other small islands such as Easter Island (Chile), Pitcairn Islands (UK), Bermuda, and Cabo Verde may actually witness increases in catch potential under certain climate scenarios. Food shortages are often apparent in small islands, following the passage of catastrophic TCs. Access to pelagic fisheries can help to alleviate immediate food insecurity pressures in some circumstances, whereas aquaculture (fish farming) is being viewed as a longer-term means of diversifying incomes and enhancing resilience in many Caribbean and Pacific islands.

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