Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

==== 9.5.4.1 Temperature ====

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===== 9.5.4.1.1 Observations =====

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Mean annual temperature across central Africa has increased by 0.75°C–1.2°C since 1960 ( [[#Aloysius--2016|Aloysius et al., 2016]] ; [[#Gutiérrez--2021|Gutiérrez et al., 2021]] ). The number of hot days, heatwaves and heatwave days increased between 1979–2016 ( [[#Hu--2019|Hu et al., 2019]] ) and cold extremes have decreased (Figure 9.14; [[#Aguilar--2009|Aguilar et al., 2009]] ; [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ). Uncertainties associated with the poor ground-based observation networks in the region and associated observational uncertainties ( [[#9.5.1.1|Section 9.5.1.1]] ) result in an assessment of ''medium confidence'' in an increase in the number of heat extremes over the region.

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===== 9.5.4.2 Projections =====

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At 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, mean annual temperatures in central Africa are projected to be on average, 0.6°C, 1.1°C and 2.1°C warmer than the 1994–2005 average, respectively (Figure 9.16a). By the end of the century (2070–2099), warming of 2°C (RCP4.5 ) to 4°C (RCP8.5) is projected over the region ( [[#Aloysius--2016|Aloysius et al., 2016]] ; [[#Fotso-Nguemo--2017|Fotso-Nguemo et al., 2017]] ; [[#Diedhiou--2018|Diedhiou et al., 2018]] ; [[#Mba--2018|Mba et al., 2018]] ; [[#Tamoffo--2019|Tamoffo et al., 2019]] ) and the number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35°C is projected to increase by 150 days or more at GWL 4.4°C ( [[#Gutiérrez--2021|Gutiérrez et al., 2021]] ; [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ). According to CMIP6 and CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) models, the annual average number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35°C will increase between 14–27 days at GWL 2°C and 33–59 days at GWL 3°C above the 61–63 days for 1995–2014 ( [[#Gutiérrez--2021|Gutiérrez et al., 2021]] ; [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ). The number of heatwave days is projected to increase and extreme heatwave events may last longer than 180 days at GWL 4.1°C ( [[#Dosio--2017|Dosio, 2017]] ; [[#Weber--2018|Weber et al., 2018]] ; [[#Spinoni--2019|Spinoni et al., 2019]] ). Children born in 2020, under a 1.5°C-compatible scenario will be exposed to 6–8 times more heatwaves in their lifetimes compared to people born in 1960; this exposure increases to 7–9 times more heatwaves at GWL 2.4°C ( [[#Thiery--2021|Thiery et al., 2021]] ). The number of potentially lethal heat days per year is projected to increase from &lt;50 during 1995–2005 to 50–75 at GWL 1.6°C, 100–150 at GWL 2.5°C and 200–350 at GWL 4.4°C ( [[#Mora--2017|Mora et al., 2017]] ).

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