Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-5 (section)

==== 5.4.2.2 Cultural and Other Social Dimensions ====

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===== 5.4.2.2.1 Cultural and aesthetic values =====

Climate change threatens key cultural dimensions of lives and livelihoods (Adger et al., 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1459|1459]]</sup> ), because people develop strong cultural ties and associate distinctive meanings with many natural places and biota in the form of traditions, customs and ways of life (Marshall et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1460|1460]]</sup> ). These impacts have been felt both by indigenous and non-indigenous peoples. Recent estimates suggest that there are more than 1900 indigenous groups along the coastline with around 27 million people across 87 countries (Cisneros-Montemayor et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1461|1461]]</sup> ). AR5 concluded that climate change will affect the harvests of marine species with spiritual and aesthetic importance to indigenous cultures (Pörtner et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1462|1462]]</sup> ). This section further assesses the effects of climate change on Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge and their transmission and the implication for well-being of people, complementing the assessment for Arctic indigenous people in Chapter 3.

Indigenous knowledge is passed and appreciated over timeframes ranging from several generations to a few centuries (Cross Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 1). The adjustment of the transmission and the network of Indigenous knowledge on the ocean and coasts, and related perceptions and practice, implies a reworking of these knowledge systems where the individuals and the groups are actors in a narrative and historical construction (Roué, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1463|1463]]</sup> ; Alderson-Day et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1464|1464]]</sup> ). SLR is already transforming the seascape, such as the shape of shores in many low-lying islands in the Pacific, leading to modification or disappearance of geomorphological features that represent gods and mythological ancestors (Camus, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1465|1465]]</sup> ; Kench et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1466|1466]]</sup> ). These changing seascape also affects the mobility of people and residence patterns, and consequently, the structure and transmission of Indigenous knowledge (Camus, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1467|1467]]</sup> ). The fear of SLR and climate change encourage security measures and the grouping of local people to the safest places, contributing to the erosion of indigenous culture and their knowledge about the ocean (Bambridge and Le Meur, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1468|1468]]</sup> ), and impairment of opportunity for social elevation for some Pacific indigenous communities (Borthwick, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1469|1469]]</sup> ).

Climate change is also projected to shift the biogeography and potential catches of fishes and invertebrates (5.2.3.1, 5.3, 5.4.1.1) that form an integral part of the culture, economy and diet of many indigenous communities, such as those situated along the Pacific Coast of North America (Lynn et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1470|1470]]</sup> ). Indigenous fishing communities that depend on traditional marine resources for food and economic security are particularly vulnerable to climate change through reduced capacity to conduct traditional harvests because of reduced access to, or availability of, resources (Larsen et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1471|1471]]</sup> ; Weatherdon et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1472|1472]]</sup> ). Overall, the transmission of indigenous culture and knowledge is at risk because of SLR affecting sea- and land-scapes, the availability and access to culturally important marine species, and communities’ reliance on the ocean for their livelihood and their cultural beliefs ( ''medium confidence'' ). Strong attachment to traditional marine-based livelihoods has also been reported for non-indigenous communities in Canada (Davis, 2015), the USA (Paolisso et al., 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1474|1474]]</sup> ), Spain (Ruiz et al., 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1475|1475]]</sup> ) and Australia (Metcalf et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1476|1476]]</sup> ). Reduction in populations of fish species that have supported livelihoods for generations, and deteriorations of iconic elements of seascapes are putting the well-being of these communities at risk ( ''high confidence'' ).

Other cultural values supported by the ocean are diverse. They include education, based on knowledge of marine environments. Such education can increase knowledge and awareness of climate change impacts and the efficacy of their mitigation (Meadows, 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r1477|1477]]</sup> ); it can also influence the extent to which stewardship activities are adopted (von Heland et al., 2014; Wynveen and Sutton, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1478|1478]]</sup> ; Bennett et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1479|1479]]</sup> ), and can help develop new networks between coastal people and environmental managers for the purposes of planning and implementing new adaptation strategies (Wynveen and Sutton, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1480|1480]]</sup> ). A critical element in reducing vulnerability to climate change is to educate people that they are an integral part of the Earth system and have a huge influence on the balance of the system. An important marine ecosystem service is to support such education (Malone, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1481|1481]]</sup> ). Thus, education can play a pivotal role in how climate change is perceived and experienced, and marine biodiversity and ecosystems play an important role in this. At the same time, climate change impacts on marine ecosystems (Sections 5.2.3, 5.2.4) can affect the role of the ocean in supporting such public education ( ''medium evidence, high agreement, medium confidence'' ).

The aesthetic appreciation of natural places is one of the fundamental ways in which people relate to their environment. AR5 noted that climate change may impact marine species with aesthetic importance that affect local and indigenous cultures, local economies and challenge cultural preservation (Pörtner et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1482|1482]]</sup> ). Evidence since AR5 confirms that aesthetically appreciated aspects of marine ecosystems are important for supporting local and international economies (especially through tourism), human well-being, and stewardship. For example, Marshall et al. (2018) found that aesthetic values are a critically important cultural value for all cultural groups, and are important for maintaining sense of place, pride, identity and opportunities for inspiration, spirituality, recreation and well-being. However, climate change induced degradation and loss of biodiversity and habitats (Section 5.2.3, 5.2.4, 5.3) can also negatively impact the ecosystem features that are currently appreciated by human communities, such as coral reefs, mangroves, charismatic species (such as some marine mammals and seabirds) and geomorphological features (e.g., sandy beaches). There are also aesthetic and inspirational values of marine biodiversity and ecosystems that are important to the psychological and spiritual well-being of people, including film, literature, art and recreation (Pescaroli and Magni, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1483|1483]]</sup> ). Other cultural dimensions that are becoming more widely acknowledged as potentially disturbed by climate change include the appreciation of scientific, artistic, spiritual, and health opportunities, as well as appreciation of biodiversity, lifestyle and aesthetics (Marshall et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1484|1484]]</sup> ). Thus, climate change may also affect the way in which marine ecosystems support human well-being through cultural dimensions. However, the difficulties in evaluating the importance of aesthetic aspects of marine ecosystems, and in detecting and attributing of climate change impacts, result in such assessment having ''low confidence'' .

Climate change affects human cultures and well-being differently. For example, Marshall et al. (2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1485|1485]]</sup> assessed the importance of identity, pride, place, aesthetics, biodiversity, lifestyle, scientific value and well-being within the Great Barrier Reef region by 8,300 people across multiple cultural groups. These groups included indigenous and non-indigenous local residents, Australians (non-local), international and domestic tourists, tourism operators, and commercial fishers. They found that all groups highly rated all (listed) cultural values, suggesting that these values are critically associated with iconic ecosystems. Climate change impacts upon the Great Barrier Reef, through increased temperatures, cyclones and SLR that cumulatively degrade the quality of the Reef, are therefore liable to result in cultural impacts for all groups. However, survey that assess the emotional responses to degradation of the Great Barrier Reef by similar stakeholder groups reported different levels of impacts among these groups (Marshall et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1486|1486]]</sup> ). Therefore, many ocean and coastal dependent communities value marine ecosystems highly and climate impacts can affect their well-being, although the sensitivity to such impacts can vary among stakeholder groups (Marshall et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1487|1487]]</sup> ) ( ''low confidence'' ).

Climate change may alter the environment too rapidly for cultural adaptation to keep pace. This is because the culture that forms around a natural environment can be so integral to people’s lives that disassociation from that environment can induce a sense of disorientation and disempowerment (Fisher and Brown, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1488|1488]]</sup> ). The adaptive capacity of people to moderate or influence cultural impacts, and thereby reduce vulnerability to such impacts, is also culturally determined (Cinner et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1489|1489]]</sup> ). For example, when a resource user such as a fisher, farmer, or forester is suddenly faced with the prospect that their resource-based occupation is no longer viable, they lose not only a means of earning an income but also an important part of their identity (Marshall et al., 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1490|1490]]</sup> ; Tidball, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1491|1491]]</sup> ). Loss of identity can, in turn, have severe economic, psychological and cultural impacts (Turner et al., 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r1492|1492]]</sup> ). Climate change can quickly alter the quality of, or access to, a natural resource through degradation or coastal inundation, so that livelihoods and lifestyles are no longer able to be supported by that resource. When people are displaced from places that they value, there is strong evidence that their cultures are diminished, and in many cases endangered. There are no effective substitutions for, or adequate compensation for, lost sites of significance (Adger et al., 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1493|1493]]</sup> ). As sensitive marine ecosystems such as coral reefs and kelp forest are impacted by climate change at rapid rate (Section 5.3), these can lead to the loss of part of people’s cultural identity and values beyond the rate at which identify and values can be adjusted or substituted ( ''medium confidence'' ).

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===== 5.4.2.2.2 Potential conflicts in resource utilisation =====

Redistribution of marine species in response to direct and indirect effects of climate change may also disrupt existing marine resource sharing and associated governance (Miller and Russ, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1494|1494]]</sup> ; Pinsky et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1495|1495]]</sup> ). These effects have contributed to disputes in international fisheries management for North Atlantic mackerel (Spijkers and Boonstra, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1496|1496]]</sup> ) and Pacific salmon (Miller and Russ, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1497|1497]]</sup> ). These disagreements have stressed diplomatic relations in some cases (Pinsky et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1498|1498]]</sup> ). Decreases and fluctuations in fish stock abundance and fish catches have also contributed to past disputes (Belhabib et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1499|1499]]</sup> ; Pomeroy et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1500|1500]]</sup> ; Blasiak et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1501|1501]]</sup> ). Under climate change, shifts in abundance and distribution of fish stocks are projected to intensify in the 21st century (Sections 5.2.3, 5.3, 5.4.1.1). Stocks may locally increase and decrease elsewhere. New or increased fishing opportunities may be created when exploited fish stocks shift their distribution into a country’s waters where their abundance was previously too low to support viable fisheries (Pinsky et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1502|1502]]</sup> ). The number of new transboundary stocks occurring in exclusive economic zones worldwide was projected to be around 46 and 60 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, by 2060 relative to 1950‒2014 (Pinsky et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1503|1503]]</sup> ). However, such alteration of the sharing of resources between countries would challenge existing international fisheries governance regimes and, without sufficient adaptation responses, increase the potential for disputes in resource allocation and management (Belhabib et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1504|1504]]</sup> ; Pinsky et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1505|1505]]</sup> ). Overall, projected climate change impacts on fisheries in the 21st century increase the risk of potential conflicts among fishery area users and authorities or between two different communities within the same country (Ndhlovu et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1506|1506]]</sup> ; Shaffril et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1507|1507]]</sup> ; Spijkers and Boonstra, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1508|1508]]</sup> ) ( ''medium confidence'' ), exacerbated through competing resource exploitation from international actors and mal-adapted policies ( ''low confidence'' ). Such risks can be reduced by appropriate fisheries governance responses that are discussed in Sections 5.5.2 and 5.5.3.

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