Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-14 (section)

=== 14.5.7 Tourism and Recreation ===

<div id="h2-14-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

Tourism is one of the largest and fastest-growing industries in North America, contributing 2.5 trillion USD to North America’s GDP in 2019 ( [[#WTTC--2018|WTTC, 2018]] ; [[#Duro--2019|Duro and Turrión-Prats, 2019]] ). The USA is the world’s largest tourism economy (with a 1.839 trillion USD contribution to the global GDP in 2019), Mexico is ranked ninth (196 billion USD) and Canada thirteenth (108 billion USD) ( [[#WTTC--2018|WTTC, 2018]] ). The tourism industry is both impacted by climate change and significantly contributes to it through the emission of GHGs from travel and activities ( [[#Becken--2007|Becken and Hay, 2007]] ). By 2060, under RCP8.5, Canada and the USA are projected to benefit from climate-induced changes in tourism expenditures of up to 92 and 21%, respectively, whereas Mexico could experience a 25% decrease ( [[#OECD--2015|OECD, 2015]] ; [[#Scott--2019a|Scott et al., 2019a]] ).

<div id="14.5.7.1" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="observed-impacts-and-projected-risks-of-climate-change-1"></span>
==== 14.5.7.1 Observed Impacts and Projected Risks of Climate Change ====

<div id="h3-25-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

<div id="14.5.7.1.1" class="h4-container"></div>

<span id="alpine-and-nordic-skiing-snowmobiling-and-other-winter-sports"></span>
===== 14.5.7.1.1 Alpine and Nordic skiing, snowmobiling and other winter sports =====

<div id="h4-10-siblings" class="h4-siblings"></div>

Winter tourism activities with hard limits to adaptation, particularly those that occur at sea level where less precipitation is expected to fall as snow (i.e., Nordic skiing, snowmobiling, snowshoeing), are at the highest risk from climate change and may experience irreversible impacts well before 2°C of warming above pre-industrial levels ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 14.9). During record warm winters, alpine ski resorts in eastern Canada experienced reductions in ski season lengths of between 11 and 17 d ( [[#Rutty--2017|Rutty et al., 2017]] ) and resorts in the northeast USA (US-NE) experienced decreased skier visits by 11.6% and reductions in operational profits of 33% amounting to 40–52 million USD ( [[#Dawson--2009|Dawson et al., 2009]] ). Even with advanced snowmaking as an adaptation to warmer temperatures, average ski season lengths are projected to decrease 8% (RCP2.6, 2050s) to 73% (RCP8.5, 2080s) in Ontario, Canada ( ''CA-ON'' ) ( [[#Scott--2019b|Scott et al., 2019b]] ), 12% (RCP4.5, 2050s) to 22% (RCP8.5, 2080s) in Quebec, Canada ( ''CA-QC'' ), and 13% (RCP4.5, 2050s) to 45% (RCP8.5, 2080s) in the northeast USA ( ''US-NE'' ) ( [[#Wobus--2017|Wobus et al., 2017]] ; [[#Scott--2020|Scott et al., 2020]] ). Season length for snowmobiling and cross-country skiing is projected to decrease more dramatically ( ''high confidence'' ), that is, by 80% (RCP4.5) to 100% (RCP8.5) by mid-century (CCP5; [[#Wobus--2017|Wobus et al., 2017]] ). The number of outdoor skating days may decrease by 34% in Toronto and Montreal, and 19% in Calgary, by 2090 under RCP8.5 ( [[#Robertson--2015|Robertson et al., 2015]] ). The skating season length for the Rideau Canal in Ottawa, Canada, a UNESCO World Heritage Site attracting 1.3 million visitors annually, may decrease by 3.8±2.0 d per decade with later opening dates of 2.6±1.5 d per decade (Jahanandish and Alireza, 2019).

<div id="_idContainer061" class="Figure"></div>

[[File:e215a18d6154a8c05b5f6adc6609f74a IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_14_009.png]]

'''Figure 14.9 |''' '''Burning ember of the relative risks to select tourism activities in North America with and without adaptation as a function of global mean surface temperature increase since pre-industrial times.''' Risks to tourism activities include: '''(a)''' season length reductions from warming temperatures for Nordic skiing and snowmobiling, '''(b)''' season length reductions from warming temperatures and precipitation changes for alpine skiing, '''(c)''' visitor-experience changes as a result of warming surface and ocean temperatures for beach tourism and degrading coral reef systems for snorkelling and '''(d)''' visitor-experience changes related to warming temperatures and changing landscape aesthetic for Parks and Protected Areas. Risks assessed cover all of North America (c,d), or are specific to certain regions (a,b) . The supporting literature and methods are provided in Supplementary Material (SM14.4).

<div id="14.5.7.1.2" class="h4-container"></div>

<span id="beach-coral-reef-and-protected-areas-tourism"></span>
===== 14.5.7.1.2 Beach, coral reef and protected areas tourism =====

<div id="h4-11-siblings" class="h4-siblings"></div>

Sea level rise, increased storm surge, wave action, algae blooms, extreme air temperatures, and changes in wind and precipitation patterns threaten coastal tourism infrastructure, submerge beaches, erode walking paths on coasts, and impact destination attractiveness, tourism demand and recreation economies ( ''very high confidence'' ). Warm weather tourism activities, including beach tourism, snorkelling and national park visitation, will have more time to implement adaptation strategies to reduce climate risks as significant and widespread impacts are not expected until 3°C–4°C of warming (Figure 14.9; [[#Rutty--2015|Rutty and Scott, 2015]] ; [[#Atzori--2018|Atzori et al., 2018]] ; [[#Santos-Lacueva--2018|Santos-Lacueva et al., 2018]] ; [[#Duro--2019|Duro and Turrión-Prats, 2019]] ). Thirty percent of hotels along the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea are exposed to flooding and 66% are located on eroding beaches ( [[#Lithgow--2019|Lithgow et al., 2019]] ). Coral reef cover in Akumal Bay, Mexico, decreased by 79% between 2011 and 2014 ( [[#Gil--2015|Gil et al., 2015]] ; [[#Manuel-Navarrete--2015|Manuel-Navarrete and Pelling, 2015]] ). The recreation value of coral reef tourism in Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii is expected to decrease by 90% by mid-century under RCP8.5 ( [[#14.4|Section 14.4.2]] ; [[#EPA--2017|EPA, 2017]] ). Wildfires and insect outbreaks have contributed to reduced desirability for tourism across forest and mountain regions ( [[#Bawa--2017|Bawa, 2017]] ; [[#Hestetune--2018|Hestetune et al., 2018]] ; [[#White--2020|White et al., 2020]] ). Visitors to Utah’s National Parks declined 0.5–1.5% during wildfire years between 1993 and 2015, resulting in 2.7–4.5 million USD in lost revenue (see Box 14.2; [[#Kim--2019|Kim and Jakus, 2019]] ). Trees damaged by insects have caused campground and hiking trail closures in the western USA and Alaska ( [[#Arnberger--2018|Arnberger et al., 2018]] ). Seal level rise, flooding, coastal erosion, changing air and sea temperatures, changing humidity and extreme weather events are putting cultural heritage sites at risk ( [[#Fatorić--2017|Fatorić and Seekamp, 2017]] ; [[#Hollesen--2018|Hollesen et al., 2018]] ; Tetu et al., 2019).

<div id="14.5.7.1.3" class="h4-container"></div>

<span id="arctic-tourism"></span>
===== 14.5.7.1.3 Arctic tourism =====

<div id="h4-12-siblings" class="h4-siblings"></div>

Cruise and yacht tourism in the North American Arctic have increased rapidly over the past decade as changes in sea ice has expanded open-water areas and season length ( [[#Johnston--2016|Johnston et al., 2016]] ; [[#Pizzolato--2016|Pizzolato et al., 2016]] ; [[#Dawson--2018|Dawson et al., 2018]] ). The risk of a major accident or incident among Arctic-going yachts and some expedition passenger vessels is very high relative to other ships ( ''high confidence'' ) due to the combined increases in mobile ice, especially along the Northwest Passage ( [[#Barber--2018a|Barber et al., 2018a]] ; [[#Howell--2019|Howell and Brady, 2019]] ; [[#Copland--2021|Copland et al., 2021]] ; [[#Lemmen--2021|Lemmen et al., 2021]] ), limited regulation for private yachts ( [[#Dawson--2014|Dawson et al., 2014]] ; [[#Dawson--2017|Dawson et al., 2017]] ), the propensity for cruise ships to travel into newly ice-free and poorly charted areas, and the increasing number of non-ice-strengthened vessels operating in the region ( [[#Dawson--2018|Dawson et al., 2018]] ; [[#Copland--2019|Copland et al., 2019]] ; [[#Copland--2021|Copland et al., 2021]] ). Compounding risks include a lack of hydrographic charting and the lack of emergency response infrastructure (e.g., spill response, search and rescue, salvage) ( [[#Amap--2017|Amap, 2017]] ). Tourism demand for polar bear viewing in Churchill, Manitoba, Canada, may change due to climate-related declines in polar bear health ( [[#Gil--2015|Gil et al., 2015]] ; [[#Manuel-Navarrete--2015|Manuel-Navarrete and Pelling, 2015]] ), but may be offset by ‘Last Chance Tourism’ (LCT), a niche tourism market of individuals who explicitly seek to visit vanishing landscapes and/or disappearing flora and fauna ( [[#Lemelin--2010|Lemelin et al., 2010]] ). The ethics of promoting LCT has been questioned considering that more visitation to sensitive sites increases local impacts as well as travel-related emissions ( [[#Groulx--2016|Groulx et al., 2016]] ; [[#Groulx--2019|Groulx et al., 2019]] ).

<div id="14.5.7.2" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="emerging-responses-and-adaptation"></span>
==== 14.5.7.2 Emerging Responses and Adaptation ====

<div id="h3-26-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

Compared with other economic sectors ( [[#14.5.8|Section 14.5.8]] ), the tourism industry has high adaptive capacity ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 14.9). Investments in climate-resilient infrastructure within Canadian National Parks have increased visitation rates during the shoulder seasons ( [[#Fisichelli--2015|Fisichelli et al., 2015]] ; [[#Lemieux--2017|Lemieux et al., 2017]] ; [[#Wilkins--2018|Wilkins et al., 2018]] ), regional collaboration among US and Canadian park agencies has enhanced adaptive capacity through integrated planning and management ( [[#Lemieux--2015|Lemieux et al., 2015]] ), and technological advancements have reduced the vulnerability of alpine winter sports from warming temperatures (e.g., snowmaking, refrigerated surfaces, chemical additives) ( [[#Rutty--2015|Rutty and Scott, 2015]] ; [[#Scott--2019b|Scott et al., 2019b]] ; [[#Scott--2020|Scott et al., 2020]] ). Snowmaking as an adaptation strategy affects mitigation efforts by increasing the need for energy and fuel ( [[#Scott--2019b|Scott et al., 2019b]] ).

Tourists are also highly adaptable and, depending on their levels of place attachment, location loyalty and socio-demographics, are ''very likely'' to substitute the timing or location of their travel activity based on climate and climatic-driven environmental changes ( [[#Rutty--2015|Rutty and Scott, 2015]] ; [[#Atzori--2018|Atzori et al., 2018]] ). Lemieux (2017) found that if the state of the Athabasca Glacier (CA-PR) (Figure 14.1) were to change negatively as a result of climate change, 83% would travel elsewhere, and if large infrastructure were built as an adaptive measure for viewing receding glaciers at Jasper National Park, 40% of tourists would no longer visit.

Hard and soft limits to adaptation exist in the tourism sector ( [[#Manuel-Navarrete--2015|Manuel-Navarrete and Pelling, 2015]] ). For example, machine-made snow, without the use of environmentally harmful chemical additives that are banned in most jurisdictions, can only be made efficiently in temperatures below −2°C, but projections indicate warming temperatures above this threshold ( [[#Wobus--2017|Wobus et al., 2017]] ; [[#Scott--2019a|Scott et al., 2019a]] ). Multi-jurisdictional adaptation planning for parks and protected areas in the USA has been hindered by a lack of funding and communication, and funding trade-offs that could be remedied through coordination ( [[#Lemieux--2015|Lemieux et al., 2015]] ). Social inequalities generated by the tourism development process must also be considered by climate-related interventions to prevent the perpetuation of inequalities that may exist, particularly in less developed regions and rapidly developing regions. For example, new developments in Hawaii, Florida, Quebec and popular resort areas in Mexico have led to social inequalities through increased property taxes leading to the marginalisation of local residents away from these areas in favour of wealthy tourists ( [[#14.5.9|Section 14.5.9]] ; [[#Manuel-Navarrete--2015|Manuel-Navarrete and Pelling, 2015]] ).

<div id="14.5.8" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="economic-activities-and-sectors-in-north-america"></span>