Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-11 (section)

==== 11.3.7.2 Projected Impacts ====

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Widespread impacts from projected climate change are ''very likely'' across the tourism sector. The World Heritage listed Kakadu National Park in Australia is projected to experience increasing severity of cyclones ( [[#Turton--2014|Turton, 2014]] ), and sea level rise (SLR) is projected to affect freshwater wetlands (11.3.1.2; Table 11.5) ( [[#McInnes--2015|McInnes et al., 2015]] ) and Indigenous rock art ( [[#Higham--2016|Higham et al., 2016]] ; [[#Hughes--2018a|Hughes et al., 2018a]] ). The projected increase in the number of hot days in northern and inland Australia may impact the attractiveness of the region for tourists ( [[#Amelung--2014|Amelung and Nicholls, 2014]] ; [[#Webb--2015|Webb and Hennessy, 2015]] ). Coastal erosion and flooding of Australasian beaches due to sea level rise (SLR) and intensifying storm activity are estimated to increase by 60% on the Sunshine Coast by 2030, causing significant damage to tourist-related infrastructure ( [[#Hughes--2018a|Hughes et al., 2018a]] ). Urgent ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ adaptation strategies are projected to help reduce sea level rise (SLR) impacts ( [[#Becken--2016|Becken and Wilson, 2016]] ).

Glacier tourism, a multi-million-dollar industry in New Zealand, is potentially under threat because glacier volumes are projected to decrease ( ''very high confidence'' ) ( [[#Purdie--2013|Purdie, 2013]] ) ''.'' Glacier volume reductions of 50–92% by 2099 relative to the present reflect the large range of temperature projections between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Under RCP2.6 at 2099, the glaciers retain a similar configuration to present, although clean-ice glaciers will retreat significantly. For RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, the clean-ice glaciers will retreat to become small remnants in the high mountains (Anderson et al. 2021).

Snow skiing faces significant challenges from climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). In Australia, the annual maximum snow depth is estimated to decrease from current levels by 15% (2030) and 60% by 2070 (SRES A2) ( [[#Di%20Luca--2018|Di Luca et al., 2018]] ). By 2070–2099, relative to 2000–2010, the length of the Victorian ski season is projected to contract by 65–90% under RCP8.5 ( [[#Harris--2016|Harris et al., 2016]] ). The New Zealand tourism destination of Queenstown is expected to experience declining snowfall, increased wind and more severe weather events ( [[#Becken--2016|Becken and Wilson, 2016]] ). Ski tourism stakeholders have been responding to longer-term climate risks with an increase in snow-making machines in New Zealand since 2013 ( [[#Hopkins--2015|Hopkins, 2015]] ) and in Australia ( [[#Harris--2016|Harris et al., 2016]] ).

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