Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-3 (section)

==== 3.6.4.1 Economic Structural Change and Employment in Long-term Mitigation Pathways ====

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Mitigation pathways entail transformation of the energy sector, with structural change away from fossil energy and towards low-carbon energy ( [[#3.3|Section 3.3]] ), as well as broader economic structural change, including industrial restructuring and reductions in carbon-intensive activities in parallel to extensions in low-carbon activities.

Mitigation affects work through multiple channels, which impacts geographies, sectors and skill categories differently ( [[#Fankhaeser--2008|Fankhaeser et al. 2008]] ; [[#Bowen--2018|Bowen et al. 2018]] ; [[#Malerba--2021|Malerba and Wiebe 2021]] ). Aggregate employment impacts of mitigation pathways mainly depend on the aggregate macroeconomic effect of mitigation (Sections 3.6.1 and 3.6.2) and of mitigation policy design and implementation ( [[#Freire-González--2018|Freire-González 2018]] ) ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-4#4.2.6.3|Section 4.2.6.3]] ). Most studies that quantify overall employment implications of mitigation policies are conducted at the national or regional scales ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-4#4.2.6.3|Section 4.2.6.3]] ), or sectoral scales (e.g., see [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-6|Chapter 6]] for energy sector jobs). The evidence is limited at the multinational or global scale, but studies generally find small differences in aggregate employment in mitigation pathways compared to baselines: the sign of the difference depends on the assumptions and modelling frameworks used and the policy design tested, with some studies or policy design cases leading to small increases in employment ( [[#Chateau--2013|Chateau and Saint-Martin 2013]] ; [[#Pollitt--2015|Pollitt et al. 2015]] ; [[#Barker--2016|Barker et al. 2016]] ; [[#Garcia-Casals--2019|Garcia-Casals et al. 2019]] ; [[#Fujimori--2020a|Fujimori et al. 2020a]] ; [[#Vrontisi--2020|Vrontisi et al. 2020]] ; [[#Malerba--2021|Malerba and Wiebe 2021]] ) and other studies or policy design cases leading to small decreases ( [[#Chateau--2013|Chateau and Saint-Martin 2013]] ; [[#Vandyck--2016|Vandyck et al. 2016]] ). The small variations in aggregate employment hide substantial reallocation of jobs across sectors, with jobs creation in some sectors and jobs destruction in others. Mitigation action through thermal renovation of buildings, installation and maintenance of low-carbon generation, and the expansion of public transit lead to job creation, while jobs are lost in fossil fuel extraction, energy supply and energy-intensive sectors in mitigation pathways ( [[#von%20Stechow--2015|von Stechow et al. 2015]] , 2016; [[#Barker--2016|Barker et al. 2016]] ; [[#Fuso%20Nerini--2018|Fuso Nerini et al. 2018]] ; [[#Perrier--2018|Perrier and Quirion 2018]] ; [[#Pollitt--2018|Pollitt and Mercure 2018]] ; [[#Dominish--2019|Dominish et al. 2019]] ; [[#Garcia-Casals--2019|Garcia-Casals et al. 2019]] ). In the energy sector, job losses in the fossil fuel sector are found to be compensated by gains in wind and solar jobs, leading to a net increase in energy sector jobs in 2050 in a mitigation pathway compatible with stabilisation of the temperature increase below 2°C ( [[#Pai--2021|Pai et al. 2021]] ). Employment effects also differ by geographies, with energy-importing regions benefiting from net job creations but energy-exporting regions experiencing very small gains or suffering from net job destruction ( [[#Barker--2016|Barker et al. 2016]] ; [[#Pollitt--2018|Pollitt and Mercure 2018]] ; [[#Garcia-Casals--2019|Garcia-Casals et al. 2019]] ; [[#Malerba--2021|Malerba and Wiebe 2021]] ). Coal phase-out raises acute issues of just transition for the coal-dependent countries ( [[#Spencer--2018|Spencer et al. 2018]] ; [[#Jakob--2020|Jakob et al. 2020]] ) ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-4#4.5|Section 4.5]] and Box 6.2).

Mitigation action also affects employment through avoided climate change impacts. Mitigation reduces the risks to human health and associated impacts on labour and helps protect workers from the occupational health and safety hazards imposed by climate change ( [[#Kjellstrom--2016|Kjellstrom et al. 2016]] , 2018, 2019; [[#Levi--2018|Levi et al. 2018]] ; [[#Day--2019|Day et al. 2019]] ) (AR6 WGII Chapter 16).

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