Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-5 (section)

===== 5.4.2.2.2 Potential conflicts in resource utilisation =====

Redistribution of marine species in response to direct and indirect effects of climate change may also disrupt existing marine resource sharing and associated governance (Miller and Russ, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1494|1494]]</sup> ; Pinsky et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1495|1495]]</sup> ). These effects have contributed to disputes in international fisheries management for North Atlantic mackerel (Spijkers and Boonstra, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1496|1496]]</sup> ) and Pacific salmon (Miller and Russ, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1497|1497]]</sup> ). These disagreements have stressed diplomatic relations in some cases (Pinsky et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1498|1498]]</sup> ). Decreases and fluctuations in fish stock abundance and fish catches have also contributed to past disputes (Belhabib et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1499|1499]]</sup> ; Pomeroy et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1500|1500]]</sup> ; Blasiak et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1501|1501]]</sup> ). Under climate change, shifts in abundance and distribution of fish stocks are projected to intensify in the 21st century (Sections 5.2.3, 5.3, 5.4.1.1). Stocks may locally increase and decrease elsewhere. New or increased fishing opportunities may be created when exploited fish stocks shift their distribution into a country’s waters where their abundance was previously too low to support viable fisheries (Pinsky et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1502|1502]]</sup> ). The number of new transboundary stocks occurring in exclusive economic zones worldwide was projected to be around 46 and 60 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, by 2060 relative to 1950‒2014 (Pinsky et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1503|1503]]</sup> ). However, such alteration of the sharing of resources between countries would challenge existing international fisheries governance regimes and, without sufficient adaptation responses, increase the potential for disputes in resource allocation and management (Belhabib et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1504|1504]]</sup> ; Pinsky et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1505|1505]]</sup> ). Overall, projected climate change impacts on fisheries in the 21st century increase the risk of potential conflicts among fishery area users and authorities or between two different communities within the same country (Ndhlovu et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1506|1506]]</sup> ; Shaffril et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1507|1507]]</sup> ; Spijkers and Boonstra, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1508|1508]]</sup> ) ( ''medium confidence'' ), exacerbated through competing resource exploitation from international actors and mal-adapted policies ( ''low confidence'' ). Such risks can be reduced by appropriate fisheries governance responses that are discussed in Sections 5.5.2 and 5.5.3.

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