Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-14 (section)

===== 14.5.7.1.1 Alpine and Nordic skiing, snowmobiling and other winter sports =====

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Winter tourism activities with hard limits to adaptation, particularly those that occur at sea level where less precipitation is expected to fall as snow (i.e., Nordic skiing, snowmobiling, snowshoeing), are at the highest risk from climate change and may experience irreversible impacts well before 2°C of warming above pre-industrial levels ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 14.9). During record warm winters, alpine ski resorts in eastern Canada experienced reductions in ski season lengths of between 11 and 17 d ( [[#Rutty--2017|Rutty et al., 2017]] ) and resorts in the northeast USA (US-NE) experienced decreased skier visits by 11.6% and reductions in operational profits of 33% amounting to 40–52 million USD ( [[#Dawson--2009|Dawson et al., 2009]] ). Even with advanced snowmaking as an adaptation to warmer temperatures, average ski season lengths are projected to decrease 8% (RCP2.6, 2050s) to 73% (RCP8.5, 2080s) in Ontario, Canada ( ''CA-ON'' ) ( [[#Scott--2019b|Scott et al., 2019b]] ), 12% (RCP4.5, 2050s) to 22% (RCP8.5, 2080s) in Quebec, Canada ( ''CA-QC'' ), and 13% (RCP4.5, 2050s) to 45% (RCP8.5, 2080s) in the northeast USA ( ''US-NE'' ) ( [[#Wobus--2017|Wobus et al., 2017]] ; [[#Scott--2020|Scott et al., 2020]] ). Season length for snowmobiling and cross-country skiing is projected to decrease more dramatically ( ''high confidence'' ), that is, by 80% (RCP4.5) to 100% (RCP8.5) by mid-century (CCP5; [[#Wobus--2017|Wobus et al., 2017]] ). The number of outdoor skating days may decrease by 34% in Toronto and Montreal, and 19% in Calgary, by 2090 under RCP8.5 ( [[#Robertson--2015|Robertson et al., 2015]] ). The skating season length for the Rideau Canal in Ottawa, Canada, a UNESCO World Heritage Site attracting 1.3 million visitors annually, may decrease by 3.8±2.0 d per decade with later opening dates of 2.6±1.5 d per decade (Jahanandish and Alireza, 2019).

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'''Figure 14.9 |''' '''Burning ember of the relative risks to select tourism activities in North America with and without adaptation as a function of global mean surface temperature increase since pre-industrial times.''' Risks to tourism activities include: '''(a)''' season length reductions from warming temperatures for Nordic skiing and snowmobiling, '''(b)''' season length reductions from warming temperatures and precipitation changes for alpine skiing, '''(c)''' visitor-experience changes as a result of warming surface and ocean temperatures for beach tourism and degrading coral reef systems for snorkelling and '''(d)''' visitor-experience changes related to warming temperatures and changing landscape aesthetic for Parks and Protected Areas. Risks assessed cover all of North America (c,d), or are specific to certain regions (a,b) . The supporting literature and methods are provided in Supplementary Material (SM14.4).

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