Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-4 (section)

==== 4.9.3.2 China case study on reforestation success ====

<div id="section-4-9-3-2-china-case-study-on-reforestation-success-block-1"></div>

The dramatic decline in the quantity and quality of natural forests in China resulted in land degradation, such as soil erosion, floods, droughts, carbon emission, and damage to wildlife habitat (Liu and Diamond 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r1330|1330]]</sup> ). In response to failures of previous forestry and land policies, the severe droughts in 1997, and the massive floods in 1998, the central government decided to implement a series of land degradation control policies, including the National Forest Protection Program (NFPP), Grain for Green or the Conversion of Cropland to Forests and Grassland Program (GFGP) (Liu et al. 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r1331|1331]]</sup> ; Yin 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r1332|1332]]</sup> ; Tengberg et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1333|1333]]</sup> ; Zhang et al. 2000 <sup>[[#fn:r1334|1334]]</sup> ). The NFPP aimed to completely ban logging of natural forests in the upper reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers as well as in Hainan Province by 2000 and to substantially reduce logging in other places (Xu et al. 2006 <sup>[[#fn:r1335|1335]]</sup> ). In 2011, NFPP was renewed for the 10-year second phase, which also added another 11 counties around Danjiangkou Reservoir in Hubei and Henan Provinces, the water source for the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (Liu et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1336|1336]]</sup> ). Furthermore, the NFPP afforested 31 Mha by 2010 through aerial seeding, artificial planting, and mountain closure (i.e., prohibition of human activities such as fuelwood collection and lifestock grazing) (Xu et al. 2006 <sup>[[#fn:r1337|1337]]</sup> ). China banned commercial logging in all natural forests by the end of 2016, which imposed logging bans and harvesting reductions in 68.2 Mha of forest land – including 56.4 Mha of natural forest (approximately 53% of China’s total natural forests).

GFGP became the most ambitious of China’s ecological restoration efforts, with more than 45 billion USD devoted to its implementation since 1990 (Kolinjivadi and Sunderland 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1338|1338]]</sup> ) The programme involves the conversion of farmland on slopes of 15–25° or greater to forest or grassland (Bennett 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r1339|1339]]</sup> ). The pilot programme started in three provinces – Sichuan, Shaanxi and Gansu – in 1999 (Liu and Diamond 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r1340|1340]]</sup> ). After its initial success, it was extended to 17 provinces by 2000 and finally to all provinces by 2002, including the headwaters of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers (Liu et al. 2008).

NFPP and GFGP have dramatically improved China’s land conditions and ecosystem services, and thus have mitigated the unprecedented land degradation in China (Liu et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1341|1341]]</sup> ; Liu et al. 2002 <sup>[[#fn:r1342|1342]]</sup> ; Long et al. 2006 <sup>[[#fn:r1343|1343]]</sup> ; Xu et al. 2006 <sup>[[#fn:r1344|1344]]</sup> ). NFPP protected 107 Mha forest area and increased forest area by 10 Mha between 2000 and 2010. For the second phase (2011–2020), the NFPP plans to increase forest cover by a further 5.2 Mha, capture 416 million tons of carbon, provide 648,500 forestry jobs, further reduce land degradation, and enhance biodiversity (Liu et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1345|1345]]</sup> ). During 2000–2007, sediment concentration in the Yellow River had declined by 38%. In the Yellow River basin, it was estimated that surface runoff would be reduced by 450 million m3 from 2000 to 2020, which is equivalent to 0.76% of the total surface water resources (Jia et al. 2006). GFGP had cumulatively increased vegetative cover by 25 Mha, with 8.8 Mha of cropland being converted to forest and grassland, 14.3 Mha barren land being afforested, and 2.0 Mha of forest regeneration from mountain closure. Forest cover within the GFGP region has increased 2% during the first eight years (Liu et al. 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r1346|1346]]</sup> ). In Guizhou Province, GFGP plots had 35–53% less loss of phosphorus than non-GFGP plots (Liu et al. 2002 <sup>[[#fn:r1347|1347]]</sup> ). In Wuqi County of Shaanxi Province, the Chaigou Watershed had 48% and 55% higher soil moisture and moisture-holding capacity in GFGP plots than in non-GFGP plots, respectively (Liu et al. 2002 <sup>[[#fn:r1348|1348]]</sup> ). According to reports on China’s first national ecosystem assessment (2000–2010), for carbon sequestration and soil retention, coefficients for the GFGP targeting forest restoration and NFPP are positive and statistically significant. For sand fixation, GFGP targeting grassland restoration is positive and statistically significant. Remote sensing observations confirm that vegetation cover increased and bare soil declined in China over the period 2001 to 2015 (Qiu et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1349|1349]]</sup> ). But, where afforestation is sustained by drip irrigation from groundwater, questions about plantation sustainability arise (Chen et al. 2018a <sup>[[#fn:r1350|1350]]</sup> ). Moreover, greater gains in biodiversity could be achieved by promoting mixed forests over monocultures (Hua et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1351|1351]]</sup> ).

NFPP-related activities received a total commitment of 93.7 billion yuan (about 14 billion USD at 2018 exchange rate) between 1998 and 2009. Most of the money was used to offset economic losses of forest enterprises caused by the transformation from logging to tree plantations and forest management (Liu et al. 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r1352|1352]]</sup> ). By 2009, the cumulative total investment through the NFPP and GFGP exceeded 50 billion USD2009 and directly involved more than 120 million farmers in 32 million households in the GFGP alone (Liu et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1353|1353]]</sup> ). All programmes reduce or reverse land degradation and improve human well-being. Thus, a coupled human and natural systems perspective (Liu et al. 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r1354|1354]]</sup> ) would be helpful to understand the complexity of policies and their impacts, and to establish long-term management mechanisms to improve the livelihood of participants in these programmes and other land management policies in China and many other parts of the world.

<span id="degradation-and-management-of-peat-soils"></span>