Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-10 (section)

===== 10.4.6.3.5 Tropical cyclones =====

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Globally, there is ''high confidence'' that the proportion of intense tropical cyclones is expected to increase despite the total number of tropical cyclones being expected to decrease or remain unchanged ( [[#Arias--2021|Arias et al., 2021]] ), especially in Southeast and East Asia ( [[#Knutson--2015|Knutson et al., 2015]] ; [[#Yamamoto--2021|Yamamoto et al., 2021]] ). Historical trends from South Asia indicate that more lives are lost due to storm surge levels than the intensity of the cyclone (Niggol and Bakkensen, 2017). The number of people exposed to 1-in-100-years storm surge events is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam have the highest numbers of coastal populations exposed ( [[#Neumann--2015|Neumann et al., 2015]] ) with Guangzhou, Mumbai, Shenzen, Tianjin, Ho Chi Minh City, Kolkata and Jakarta incurring losses of 1520 million USD due to coastal flooding in 2005 alone ( [[#Dulal--2019|Dulal, 2019]] ), although Jakarta is exposed to monsoonal storm surge. It is projected that by 2050, without adaptation, the annual losses incurred in these cities will increase to approximately 32 billion USD ( [[#Dulal--2019|Dulal, 2019]] ).

Globally, six of the top ten countries/places with the highest AAL associated with tropical cyclones are in Asia (Japan, Republic of Korea, the Philippines, China, Taiwan, Province of China, and India) ( [[#Mori--2021a|Mori et al., 2021a]] ). The AAL associated with storm surge is primarily concentrated in Japan, China, Hong Kong SAR of China, and India. The AAL associated with wind and storm surge relative to the existing capital stock in the country is highest in New Caledonia, Tonga, Vanuatu, Palau, the Philippines, Fiji and the Solomon Islands, indicating less resilience. For example, in Ise Bay, Japan, the current storm surges are estimated to lead to property and business damage of approximately 100.04 billion JPY with current adaptation (protective sea wall), but this can more than double to 236.49 billion JPY under climate-change-induced increases in storm surge intensity ( [[#Jiang--2016|Jiang et al., 2016]] ).

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