Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-5 (section)

===== 5.4.2.3.1 Wealth generated from fisheries =====

Global gross revenues from marine fisheries were around 150 billion in 2010 USD (Swartz et al., 2013; Tai et al., 2017). Capture fisheries provide full-time and part-time jobs for an estimated 260 ± 6 million people in the 2000s period, of whom 22 ± 0.45 million are small ‐ scale fishers (Teh and Sumaila, 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1511|1511]]</sup> ). Small-scale fisheries are important for the livelihood and viability of coastal communities worldwide (Chuenpagdee, 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r1512|1512]]</sup> ). AR5 concluded with ''low confidence'' that climate change will lead to a global decrease in revenue with regional differences that are driven by spatial variations of climate impacts on and the flexibility and capacities of food production systems (Pörtner et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1513|1513]]</sup> ). AR5 also highlighted the high vulnerability of mollusc aquaculture to ocean acidification. For example, the oyster industry in the Pacific has lost nearly 110 million USD in annual revenue due to ocean acidification (Ekstrom et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1514|1514]]</sup> ). This section examines the rapidly growing literature assessing the risks of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture sectors, and the potential interaction between climatic and non-climatic drivers on the economics of fisheries. However, new evidence on observed economic impacts of climate change on fisheries since AR5 is limited.

Since AR5, projections on climate change impacts on the economics of marine fisheries have incorporated a broader range of social-economic considerations. Driven by shifts in species distributions and maximum catch potential of fish stocks (Section 5.4.1), if the ex-vessel price of catches remains the same, marine fisheries maximum revenue potential are projected to be negatively impacted in 89% of the world’s fishing countries under the RCP8.5 scenario by the 2050s relative to the current status, with projected global decreases of 10.4 ± 4.2% and 7.1 ± 3.5% under RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively, by 2050 relative to 2000 (Lam et al., 2016). While the projected changes in revenues are sensitive to price scenarios (Lam et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1515|1515]]</sup> ), future maximum revenue potential is reduced under high emission scenarios (Sumaila et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1517|1517]]</sup> ). For example, when the elasticity of seafood price in relation to their supply was modelled explicitly, fisheries maximum revenue potential under a 1.5°C atmospheric warming scenario was projected to be higher than for 3.5°C warming by 7.4% (13.1 billion USD) ± 2.3%, across projections from three CMIP5 models (Sumaila et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1518|1518]]</sup> ). Accounting for the subsequent impacts on the dependent communities and relative to the 1.5°C warming scenario, that study also projected a decrease in seafood workers’ incomes of 7.8% (3.7 billion USD) ± 2.3% and an increase in households’ seafood expenditure by the global population of 3.2% (6.3 billion USD) ± 3.9% annually under a 3.5°C warming scenario (Sumaila et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1519|1519]]</sup> ).

Fisheries management strategies and fishing effort affect the realised catch and economic benefits of fishing (Barange, 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1520|1520]]</sup> ). Modelling analysis of fish stocks with available data worldwide showed that for RCP6.0, adaptation of fisheries by accommodating shifts in species distribution and abundance, as well as rebuilding existing overexploited or depleted fish stocks, is projected to lead to substantially higher global profits (154%), harvest (34%), and biomass (60%) in the future, relative to a no adaptation scenario. However, the total profit, harvest and biomass are negatively affected even with the full adaptation scenario under RCP8.5 (Gaines et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1521|1521]]</sup> ). Overall, climate change impacts on the abundance, distribution and potential catches of fish stocks (see Section 5.3.1) are expected to reduce the maximum potential revenues of global fisheries ( ''high agreement, medium evidence, medium confidence'' ). These impacts on fisheries will increase the risk of impacts on the income and livelihoods of people working in these economic sectors by 2050 under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios relative to low emission scenario ( ''high confidence'' ). Rebuilding overexploited or depleted fisheries can help improve economic efficiency and reduce climate risk, provided that emissions are greatly reduced ( ''medium confidence'' ).

The economic implications of climate change on fisheries vary between regions and countries because of the differences in exposure to revenue changes and the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the fishing communities to these changes (Hilmi et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1522|1522]]</sup> ). Regions where the maximum potential revenue is projected to decrease coincide with areas where indicators such as human development index suggest high economic vulnerability to climate change (Barbier, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1523|1523]]</sup> ; Lam et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1524|1524]]</sup> ). Many coastal communities in these regions rely heavily on fish and fisheries as a major source of animal proteins, nutritional needs, income and job opportunities (FAO, 2019). Negative impacts on the catch and total fisheries revenues for these countries are expected to have greater implications for jobs, economies, food and nutritional security than the impacts on regions with high Human Development Index (Allison et al., 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r1525|1525]]</sup> ; Srinivasan et al., 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r1526|1526]]</sup> ; Golden et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1527|1527]]</sup> ; Blasiak et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1528|1528]]</sup> ). Climate change impacts to coral reefs and other fish habitats, as well as to targeted fish and invertebrate species themselves are expected to reduce harvests from small-scale, coastal fisheries by up to 20% by 2050, and by up to 50% by 2100, under RCP8.5 (Bell et al., 2018a <sup>[[#fn:r1529|1529]]</sup> ). Therefore, climate risk to communities that are strongly dependent on fisheries associated with ecosystems that are particularly sensitive to climate change such as coral reefs will have be particularly high (Cinner et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1530|1530]]</sup> ) ( ''high confidence'' ).

Climate change may also worsen non-climate related socioeconomic shocks and stresses, and hence is an obstacle to economic developments (Hallegatte et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1531|1531]]</sup> ). Climate risk on the economics of fishing is projected to be higher for tropical developing countries where existing adaptive capacity to the risk is lower, thereby challenging their sustainable economic development ( ''high confidence'' ). However, observed impacts are not yet well documented (Lacoue-Labarthe et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1532|1532]]</sup> ) , and there are many uncertainties relating to how climate change would affect the dynamics of fishing costs, with consequent adjustment of fishing effort that might intensify or lessen the overcapacity issue. Studies have attempted to project how fishers may respond to changes in fish distribution and abundance by incorporating different management systems (Haynie and Pfeiffer, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1533|1533]]</sup> ; Galbraith et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1534|1534]]</sup> ). However, the impacts of climate change on management effectiveness and trade practices is still inadequately understood (Galbraith et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1535|1535]]</sup> ).

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