Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-Atlas (section)

==== [[#Atlas.5.2.4|Atlas.5.2.4]] Assessment and Synthesis of Projections ====

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CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections are consistent in the direction and ranges of surface temperature change which are higher than the global average and with ensemble-mean warming of around 6°C for the 4°C GWL. Projected precipitation changes are also consistent with significant increases in winter, of up to 40% in the ensemble mean for the highest warming levels, and lower increases in summer except for WSB where changes are small and suggest drying at the 4°C GWL (Figure Atlas.1 7 and the Interactive Atlas).

The CMIP5 ensemble projects a warming of the annual mean SAT over northern Eurasia in the 21st century, ''likely'' in the range of 0.8°C–1.0°C (RCP2.6), 2.3°C–3.1°C (RCP4.5) and up to 7.2°C (RCP8.5) ( [[#Miao--2014|Miao et al., 2014]] ; [[#Peng--2019|Peng et al., 2019]] ). Mid-latitude permafrost sub-regions in Eurasia are projected to warm more than the global mean and non-permafrost territories, with ensemble area-averaged changes of 1.7°C (RCP2.6), 3.2°C (RCP4.5) or 6.4°C (RCP8.5) in 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005 ( [[#Peng--2019|Peng et al., 2019]] ).

Over the Central Asia CORDEX domain, RegCM4.3.5 simulations driven by two different CMIP5 GCMs (HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR) project SAT warming for 2071–2100 relative to 1971–2000 of about 3°C–4°C during the summer for RCP4.5 to over 7°C for all seasons for RCP8.5. Projected warming is most evident on the large continental Siberian Plateau with boreal and sub-boreal climates and biomes (i.e., taiga forests and tundra) during the winter season ( [[#Ozturk--2017|Ozturk et al., 2017]] ). The Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO) RCM, driven by five CMIP5 GCMs for the RCP8.5 scenario, projects a faster increase in annual minimum temperature as compared with maximum temperature over the whole territory of Russia ( [[#Kattsov--2017|Kattsov et al., 2017]] ), and the smallest change in growing season lengths (i.e., periods with daily temperatures over 5°C, 10°C and 15°C) in the area of northern taiga in WSB and ESB comparable with other territories of Russia during the 21st century ( [[#Torzhkov--2019|Torzhkov et al., 2019]] ).

For precipitation, MGO RCM projects for the Arctic-CORDEX domain under the RCP8.5 scenario increases in annual totals for northern North Asia, a decrease in summer over ESB for 2006–2100 relative to 1951–2005 and significant increases in the upper limit of intense precipitation over most of the region in winter ( [[#Kattsov--2017|Kattsov et al., 2017]] ; [[#Khlebnikova--2018|Khlebnikova et al., 2018]] ). Other RCM projections show that in most seasons and for all future periods, precipitation in Siberia is not projected to change with respect to the 1971–2000 period, except under the RCP8.5 scenario for the winter and autumn ( [[#Ozturk--2017|Ozturk et al., 2017]] ). This very limited and controversial evidence leads to ''low confidence'' in RCM precipitation projections for North Asia and since the projections of GCMs and ESMs are more physically consistent, assessment of future precipitation changes is based on CMIP5/CMIP6 presented in Figure Atlas.1 7 and the Interactive Atlas.

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