Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

===== 13.6.1.5.3 Risks from thaw of permafrost and mudflows =====

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Increasing temperatures in NEU and the Alps has led to accelerated degradation of permafrost, negatively affecting the stability of infrastructures ( [[#Stoffel--2014|Stoffel et al., 2014]] ; [[#Beniston--2018|Beniston et al., 2018]] ; [[#Duvillard--2019|Duvillard et al., 2019]] ). In the Caucasus, glacial mudflows due to permafrost degradation and modern tectonic processes pose a significant danger to the infrastructure ( [[#Vaskov--2016|Vaskov, 2016]] ). In the past 30 years, the permafrost temperature in the European part of the Russian Arctic has increased by 0.5–2°C, resulting in damage to buildings, roads and pipelines, and to significant expenditure for stabilising soils ( [[#Porfiriev--2017|Porfiriev et al., 2017]] ; [[#Konnova--2019|Konnova and Lvova, 2019]] ). Beyond 3° C GWL, the bearing capacity for infrastructure in the permafrost region of the European Russia could decrease by 32–75% by mid-century and by 95% by 2100, potentially affecting settlements in northern EEU ( [[#Shiklomanov--2017|Shiklomanov et al., 2017]] ; [[#Streletskiy--2019|Streletskiy et al., 2019]] ). The increasing number of cycles of freezing and thawing, observed in EEU, has led to accelerated ageing of building envelopes ( [[#13.8.1.4|Section 13.8.1.4]] ; [[#Frolov--2014|Frolov et al., 2014]] ). Permafrost degradation due to higher temperatures could increase the potential of debris flow detachment in Alpine locations ( [[#13.6.1.4|Section 13.6.1.4]] ; [[#Damm--2013|Damm and Felderer, 2013]] ).

Increased precipitation falling on local topography can increase landslide and mudflow risks, as seen in settlements at the Caucasus mountainous region ( [[#Marchenko--2017|Marchenko et al., 2017]] ; [[#Efremov--2018|Efremov and Shulyakov, 2018]] ; [[#Kerimov--2020|Kerimov et al., 2020]] ). At the Umbria region in Italy, landslide events could increase by 16–53% under 2°C GWL and by 24–107% beyond 3°C GWL, mostly during winter ( [[#Ciabatta--2016|Ciabatta et al., 2016]] ). Risks from shallow landslides are expected to increase in the Alps and Carpathians if no adequate risk mitigation measures are put in place ( [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/13#CCP5.3.2 CCP5.3.2] ; [[#Gariano--2016|Gariano and Guzzetti, 2016]] ).

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