Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

===== 9.5.4.2.2 Projections =====

<div id="h4-16-siblings" class="h4-siblings"></div>

Under low emission scenarios and at GWL 1.5°C and GWL 2°C there is ''low confidence'' in projected mean rainfall change over the region (Figure 9.16c). At GWL 3°C and GWL 4.4°C, an increased mean annual rainfall of 10–25% is projected by regional climate models ( [[#Coppola--2014|Coppola et al., 2014]] ; [[#Pinto--2015|Pinto et al., 2015]] ) and the intensity of extreme precipitation will increase ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 9.16c, d; [[#Sylla--2015a|Sylla et al., 2015a]] ; [[#Diallo--2016|Diallo et al., 2016]] ; [[#Dosio--2019|Dosio et al., 2019]] ; [[#Gutiérrez--2021|Gutiérrez et al., 2021]] ; [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ; [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ). This is projected to increase the likelihood of widespread flood occurrences before, during and after the mature monsoon season (Figure 9.14).

Convection-permitting simulations (4.5 km spatial resolution) simulate increased dry spell length not apparent at coarser resolutions, suggesting drying in addition to more intense extreme rainfall ( [[#Stratton--2018|Stratton et al., 2018]] ). Although reduced drought frequency is indicated in Figure 9.16e, the SPI metric does not account for the effect of increased temperature on drought (increased moisture deficit), and metrics that account for this indicate slightly increased drought frequency or no change ( [[#Spinoni--2020|Spinoni et al., 2020]] ). Therefore, there is ''low confidence'' in projected changes of drought frequency over the region (Figure 9.14).

<div id="9.5.5" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="east-africa"></span>