Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-4 (section)

=== Cryosphere and Ocean ===

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'''Under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, it is''' ''likely'' '''that the Arctic Ocean in September, the month of annual minimum sea ice area, will become practically ice-free (sea ice area less than 1 million km''' <sup>2</sup> ''') averaged over 2081–2100 and all available simulations.''' Arctic sea ice area in March, the month of annual maximum sea ice area, also decreases in the future under each of the considered scenarios, but to a much lesser degree (in percentage terms) than in September ( ''high confidence'' ). {4.3.2}

'''Under the five scenarios assessed, it is''' ''virtually certain'' '''that global mean sea level (GMSL) will continue to rise through the 21st century.''' For the period 2081–2100 relative to 1995–2014, GMSL is ''likely'' to rise by 0.46–0.74 m under SSP3-7.0 and by 0.30–0.54 m under SSP1-2.6 ( ''medium confidence'' ). For the assessment of change in GMSL, the contribution from land-ice melt has been added offline to the CMIP6-simulated contributions from thermal expansion. {4.3.2. 9.6}

'''It is''' ''very likely'' '''that the cumulative uptake of carbon by the ocean and by land will increase through to the end of the 21st century.''' Carbon uptake by land shows greater increases but with greater uncertainties than for ocean carbon uptake. The fraction of emissions absorbed by land and ocean sinks will be smaller under high emissions scenarios than under low emissions scenarios ( ''high confidence'' ). Ocean surface pH will decrease steadily through the 21st century, except for SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 where values decrease until around 2070 and then increase slightly to 2100 ( ''high confidence'' ). {4.3.2, 5.4}

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