Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-6 (section)

=== Future Projections of the Effect of SLCFs on GSAT in the Core SSPs ===

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'''In the next two decades, it is''' ''very likely'' '''that the SLCF emissions changes in the WGI core set of SSPs will cause a warming relative to 2019, whatever the SSPs, in addition to the warming from long-lived greenhouse gases. The net effect of SLCF and hydrofluorocarbon''' ( '''HFC) changes on GSAT across the SSPs''' '''is a''' ''likely'' '''warming of 0.06°C–0.35°C in 2040 relative to 2019. Warming over the next two decades is quite similar across the SSPs due to competing effects of warming (methane, ozone) and cooling (aerosols) SLCFs''' . For the scenarios with the most stringent climate and air pollution mitigations ( SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 ), the ''likely'' near-term warming from the SLCFs is predominantly due to sulphate aerosol reduction, but this effect levels off after 2040. In the absence of climate change policies and with weak air pollution control ( SSP3-7.0 ), the ''likely'' near-term warming due to changes in SLCFs is predominantly due to increases in methane, ozone and HFCs, with smaller contributions from changes in aerosols. SSP5-8.5 has the highest SLCF-induced warming rates due to warming from methane and ozone increases and reduced aerosols due to stronger air pollution control compared to the SSP3-7.0 scenario. {6.7.2}

'''At the end of the century, the large diversity of GSAT response to SLCF changes among the scenarios robustly covers the possible futures, as the scenarios are internally consistent and span a range from very high to very low emissions.''' In the scenarios without climate change mitigation ( SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 ) the ''likely'' range of the estimated warming due to SLCFs in 2100 relative to 2019 is 0.4°C–0.9°C {6.7.3, 6.7.4} . In SSP3-7.0 there is a near-linear warming due to SLCFs of 0.08°C per decade, while for SSP5-8.5 there is a more rapid warming in the first half of the century. For the scenarios considering the most stringent climate and air pollution mitigations ( SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 ), the reduced warming from reductions in methane, ozone and HFCs partly balances the warming from reduced aerosols, and the overall SLCF effect is a ''likely'' increase in GSAT of 0.0°C–0.3°C in 2100, relative to 2019. The SSP2-4.5 scenario (with moderate climate change and air pollution mitigations) results in a ''likely'' warming of 0.2°C–0.5°C in 2100 due to SLCFs, with the largest warming from reductions in aerosols. {6.7.3}

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