Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-11 (section)

====== Key risks that have potential to be severe but can be reduced substantially by rapid, large-scale and effective mitigation and adaptation ======

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# Transition or collapse of alpine ash, snowgum woodland, pencil pine and northern jarrah forests in southern Australia due to hotter and drier conditions with more fires. For example declining rainfall in southern Australia over the past 30 years, has led to drought-induced canopy dieback across a range of forest and woodland types and death of fire-sensitive tree species due to unprecedented wildfires ''(high confidence)'' . {11.3.1.1, 11.3.1.2}
# Loss of kelp forests in southern Australia and southeast New Zealand due to ocean warming, marine heatwaves and overgrazing by climate-driven range extensions of herbivore fish and urchins. For example less than 10% of giant kelp in Tasmania was remaining by 2011 due to ocean warming ''(high confidence)'' . {11.3.2.1, 11.3.2.2}
# Loss of natural and human systems in low-lying coastal areas due to sea level rise (SLR). For example for 0.5 m sea level rise (SLR), the value of buildings in New Zealand exposed to 1-in-100-year coastal inundation could increase by NZ$12.75 billion and the current 1-in-100-year flood in Australia could occur several times a year ''(high confidence)'' . {11.3.5; Box 11.6}
# Disruption and decline in agricultural production and increased stress in rural communities in southwestern, southern and eastern mainland Australia due to hotter and drier conditions. For example by 2050, a decline in median wheat yields of up to 30% in southwestern Australia and up to 15% in South Australia and increased heat stress in livestock by 31–42 days per year ''(high confidence)'' . {11.3.4; 11.3.5; Box 11.3}
# Increase in heat-related mortality and morbidity for people and wildlife in Australia due to heatwaves. For example heat-related excess deaths in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane are projected to increase by about 300/year (low emission pathway) to 600/year (high emission pathway) during the 2031–2080 period relative to 142/year in the period 1971–2020 ''(high confidence)'' . {11.3.1, 11.3.5.1, 11.3.5.2, 11.3.6.1, 11.3.6.2}

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