Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-15 (section)

===== Options, Limits and Opportunities of Adaptation =====

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'''Some island communities are resilient with strong social safety nets and social capital that support responses and actions already occurring, but there is limited information on the effectiveness of the adaptation practices and the scale of action needed''' ( ''high confidence'' ). This is in part due to a need for a better understanding of the limits to adaptation and of what constitutes current resilience and/or successful adaptation in small island contexts. Greater insights into which drivers weaken local and indigenous resilience, together with recognition of the sociopolitical contexts within which communities operate, and the processes by which decisions are made, can assist in identifying opportunities at all scales to enhance climate adaptation and enable action towards climate resilient development pathways ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ) {15.6.1, 15.6.5, 15.7} .

'''In small islands, despite the existence of adaptation barriers several enablers can be used to improve adaptation outcomes and to build resilience''' ( ''high confidence'' ). These enablers include better governance and legal reforms; improving justice, equity and gender considerations; building human resource capacity; increased finance and risk transfer mechanisms; education and awareness programmes; increased access to climate information; adequately downscaled climate data and embedding Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge (IKLK) as well as integrating cultural resources into decision-making ( ''high confidence'' ) {15.6.1 15.6.3, 15.6.4, 15.6.5} .

'''Small islands present the most urgent need for investment in capacity building and adaptation strategies (''' ''high confidence'' ''') but face barriers and constraints which hinder the implementation of adaptation responses.''' Barriers and constraints arise from governance arrangements, financial resources and human resource capacity. Additionally, institutional and legal systems are often inadequately prepared for managing adaptation strategies such as large-scale settlement relocation and other planned and/or autonomous responses to climate risks ( ''high confidence'' ). Adaptation strategies are already being implemented on some small islands although barriers are encountered including inadequate up-to-date and locally relevant information, limited availability of finance and technology, lack of integration of IKLK in adaptation strategies, and institutional constraints ( ''high confidence'' ) {15.5.3, 15.5.4, 15.6.3, 15.6.4, 15.6.5} .

'''For many small islands, adaptation actions are often incremental and do not match the scale of extreme or compounding events (''' '''''high confidence)''''' '''.''' Much of the currently implemented adaptation measures remain small in scale (e.g., community-based adaptation projects), sectoral in focus and do not address the needed structural and system-level adaptations to combat climate impacts and achieve long-term sustainability of adaptation interventions. To address these shortcomings, enablers are being integrated into National Adaptation Plans and Disaster Risk Reduction Plans ( ''high confidence'' ) {15.6.3} .

'''Although international climate finance has increased in magnitude, small islands face challenges in accessing adaptation finance to cope with slow- and rapid-onset events (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' In the Caribbean, 38% of flows were concessional loans and 62% were grants, whereas in the Atlantic and Indian oceans nearly 75% of the flows were in the form of concessional loans and 25% were grants. Solutions to these barriers are being explored and some small islands have started adopting enablers such as insurance and microfinance at both the national and local levels in responding to adaptation needs and to facilitate resiliency building. COVID-19 has caused, however, economic shock in many small islands, which will limit adaptation, undermine the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals and slow down climate resilient development transitions {15.8.3} .

'''The unavailability of up-to-date baseline data and contrasting scenarios/temperature levels continue to impair the generation of local-to-regional observed and projected impacts for small islands, especially those that are developing nations (''' '''''high agreement''''' ''').''' Climate model data based on the most recent suite of scenarios (RCPs and especially SSPs) are still not widely available to primary modelling communities in most small island developing nations (high agreement). Coastal sites of small islands are not well represented in global gridded population and elevation data sets, thereby making estimation of population exposure to SLR difficult. The lack of data continues to impede the development of robust impacts-based modelling output (e.g., for terrestrial biodiversity). Downscaling is pivotal for small islands due to their high diversity, which makes generalisation invalid.

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