Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

== 5.1 Introduction ==

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=== 5.1.1 Scope of the Chapter ===

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This chapter assesses the scientific literature produced after the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) dealing with past, current and future climate change effects on managed ecosystems that provide provisioning and cultural services. It spans low- and high-intensity production systems for food, feed, fibre and other ecosystem products.

Climate change has already had global impacts, including in high-income countries. Special emphasis is placed on the assessment of vulnerabilities of particular groups that are context- and location-specific, such as Indigenous Peoples and other minorities, women and small-scale food producers. The report builds on the IPCC AR5 and recent Special Reports. This chapter combines food systems, fibre, wood and other products from ecosystems previously detailed in separate chapters of AR5, with an increased focus on ecosystem services, including the long-term sustainability of the global food system (Figure 5.1). The chapter focuses on key climate risks, implementation and outcomes of adaptation solutions for different groups as well as limits to adaptation.

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[[File:38c9b1f6606c1b3b495c2ab2ab57b041 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_5_001.png]]

'''Figure 5.1 |''' '''Conceptual framework of Chapter 5.'''

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=== 5.1.2 Starting Point: AR5 and Recent IPCC Special Reports ===

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AR5 [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-7|Chapter 7]] ( [[#Porter--2014|Porter et al., 2014]] ) reported with ''high confidence'' that food production systems were being negatively impacted by climate change, including both terrestrial and aquatic food species ( [[#Porter--2014|Porter et al., 2014]] ). Increased temperatures will have large negative impacts on the food production system under 2°C warming by late 20th century, with temperatures exceeding 4°C posing even greater risk to global food security ( [[#Porter--2014|Porter et al., 2014]] ). Adaptation options are needed to reduce the risk from climate change, but there was limited information of their effectiveness.

The 1.5°C Special Report concluded that climate-related risks to food security will rise under 1.5°C and will increase further under 2°C or higher. Above 1.5°C, currently available adaptation options will be much less effective and site-specific limits to adaptation will be reached for vulnerable regions and sectors. There was ''high confidence'' that limiting warming to 1.5°C will result in smaller net reductions in yields of major crops affecting food availability and nutrition, and that rising temperatures will adversely affect livestock via changes in feed quality, fertility, production, spread of diseases and water availability.

The IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) expanded beyond the 1.5°C report to provide more in-depth information on climate change interactions with food security, desertification and degradation. There was ''high confidence'' that climate risks, both for slow changes and extreme events, are interlinked with ecosystem services, health and food security, often cascading and potentially reinforcing effects. Climate change already affects all dimensions of food security, namely availability, access, utilisation and stability, by disrupting food production, quality, storage, transport and retail. These effects exacerbate competition for land and water resources, leading to increased deforestation, biodiversity reduction and loss of wetlands. With ''high certainty'' , limiting global warming would lower future risks related to land, such as water scarcity, fire, vegetation shifts, degradation, desertification and food insecurity and malnutrition, particularly for those most vulnerable today: small-scale food producers in low-income countries, Indigenous communities, women, and the urban poor. SRCCL assessed a range of adaptation pathways to increase food resilience.

The IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) identified climate change impacts of warming, deoxygenation and acidification of the ocean and reductions in snow, sea ice and glaciers as having major negative impacts on fisheries and crops watered from mountain runoff and agriculture. These impacts affect food provisioning of food and directly threaten livelihoods and food security of vulnerable coastal communities and glacier-fed river basins. Climate change impacts on fisheries will be particularly high in tropical regions, where reductions in catch are expected to be among the largest globally, leading to negative economic and social effects for fishing communities and with implications for the supply of fish and shellfish ( ''high confidence'' ). While specific impacts will depend on the level of global warming and mitigative action to improve fisheries and aquaculture management, some current management practices and extraction levels may not be viable in the future.

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=== 5.1.3 Chapter Framework ===

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This chapter is taking a food systems approach similar to the food security chapter in SRCCL ( [[#Mbow--2019|Mbow et al., 2019]] ), with close attention to food system linkages, interactions and impacts on ecosystem services and biodiversity ( [[#Steffen--2015|Steffen et al., 2015]] ; [[#Raworth--2017|Raworth, 2017]] ; [[#Gerten--2020|Gerten et al., 2020]] ). ''Food security'' is defined as “a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO, 2020). Food insecurity is often experienced as chronic hunger reported in the annual UN Food Security and Nutrition in the World (FAO, 2020), when a person is unable to consume enough food over an extended period. The chapter gives special attention to climate change impacts on acute food insecurity, which can occur at any time with a severity that threatens lives, livelihoods or both, regardless of the causes, context or duration, as a result of shocks risking determinants of food security and nutrition, and used to assess the need for humanitarian action ( [[#IPC%20Global%20Partners--2019|IPC Global Partners, 2019]] ).

Climate change directly affects food systems, and the impacts on terrestrial or aquatic food production will become increasingly negative, although regionally some changes may be beneficial in the near future ( [[#Porter--2014|Porter et al., 2014]] ). Current food system trajectories are leading to biodiversity loss and land and aquatic ecosystem degradation without delivering food security, nutrition, and sustainable and healthy livelihoods to many ( [[#Steffen--2015|Steffen et al., 2015]] ). Addressing climate change in isolation ignores these interconnections, which is why the chapter considers integrated adaptation solutions to allow humanity to thrive in the long term. At the same time, social foundations of equality, justice and political participation are crucial in order to move towards a safe operating space for humanity ( [[#Raworth--2017|Raworth, 2017]] ). The SDGs provide the most comprehensive set of metrics of humanity’s progress in achieving equitable and thriving socio-ecological systems. Therefore, while the focus of this chapter is climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation of food systems, feed, fibre and other ecosystem products, other environmental and social challenges are considered concomitantly.

Food system and natural systems interact via political, economic, social, cultural and demographic factors in complex ways, leading to food security and sustainability outcomes. The food system has a supply (production) and demand (consumption) side, connected via processing, trade and retail, with loss and waste streams all along the food chain. Natural ecosystems provide multiple services (regulating, supporting, provisioning, cultural) to the food system. Food security and nutrition strongly depend on the driving forces connecting food and natural systems while at the same time positively or negatively influencing them. Climate change frequently exacerbates the effects of other drivers of change, further limiting the environment within which humanity can safely operate and thrive. The chapter assesses how climate change affects the four pillars of food security and nutrition and how these effects can be mediated by various factors, including our adaptation responses, social equity, underlying ecosystem services and governance (Figure 5.1). Adaptation solutions are a major emphasis of this chapter, including many ecosystem-based adaptation options (Table 5.1), which fall under the broader umbrella of nature-based solutions ( [[#Seddon--2020|Seddon et al., 2020]] ).

Ecosystem-based adaptation, defined as the ‘use of ecosystem management activities to increase the resilience and reduce the vulnerability of people and ecosystems to climate change’ (Campbell et al., 2009), has at its core the recognition that there are unexploited synergies in agricultural systems that can increase productivity and resilience. These can result from increasing biodiversity, adding organic matter to soils, integrating livestock and aquatic species, including aquaculture, into farming practices, broadening landscape practices to exploit crop–forestry synergies, supporting beneficial insect populations and altering pest management practices that have unintended negative consequences. In addition, the chapter considers socioeconomic strategies to build resilience in the food system, strengthening local and regional economies, building on Indigenous and local knowledge, and addressing social inequity, through inclusive, participatory and democratic governance of food systems ( [[#HLPE--2019|HLPE, 2019]] ; Wezel et al., 2020).

'''Table 5.1 |''' Adaptation strategies assessment in food, fibre and other ecosystem provisioning services.

{| class="wikitable"
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! '''Adaptation strategies/options'''

! '''Systems'''

! '''Benefits'''

! '''Constraints or enablers'''

! '''Confidence'''

! '''Relevant sections'''

|-
| * '''Ecosystem-based integrated approaches such as agroecology that increase soil organic matter, enhance soil and water conservation, and diversify food production systems'''
* '''Certain types of urban agriculture'''

| Crops

| * Improve resilience of food systems
* Provide mitigation measures and co-benefits in health, ecosystem services and other SDGs
* Improve productivity and yield stability

| Secure tenure arrangements are often critical for delivering successful ecosystem-based adaptation

| ''High''

| (5.4.4.5, 5.6.3, 5.12.3, Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2, 5.14.3.6, 5.14.3.11; Cross-Chapter Box HEALTH in Chapter 7)

|-
| * '''Increasing agroecosystem diversification through-expanding crop, animal, fish and other species genetic diversity-varying spatial and temporal arrangements including mixed planting, crop rotations, integrated crop, livestock and agroforestry systems'''

| Crops, livestock, aquaculture, mixed, agroforestry systems

| * Increase resilience, productivity, and sustainability of farming systems under climate change

| Policies and technologies that support diversification at landscape and farm levels: programmes that reward farmers for diversification practices, reduced incentives for intensified monocultures, extension support and market infrastructure for diverse crops, and productivity research on a greater variety of crops with support for post-harvest processing and regional markets

| ''High''

| (5.4.4.4, 5.14.3.1, 5.14.3.6)

|-
| * '''Changing the relative emphasis on crops and livestock'''
* '''Changing crop varieties and livestock breeds and species'''

| Crops–livestock mixed system particularly in the tropics and subtropics

| * Increase resilience

| Gender inequalities can act as a risk multiplier

| ''Medium''

| (5.5.4; 5.10.4)

|-
| * '''Indigenous and local knowledge including participatory plant breeding or community-based adaptation'''

| Crops, forestry, fisheries

| * Increase resilience and sustainability of food, fibre, forest and small-scale fisheries production

| Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge can facilitate adaptation when combined with scientific knowledge and utilised in management regimes

| ''High''

| (5.4.4.5, 5.6.3, 5.14.3)

|-
| * '''Land restoration'''
* '''Agroforestry'''
* '''Silvo-pasture'''

| Forestry

| * Improve resilience and productivity

| Partnerships between key stakeholders such as researchers, forest managers, and Indigenous and local forest dependent communities will facilitate sustainable forest management

| ''Medium''

| (5.6.3)

|-
| * '''Improved management practices that consider fish stocks and the ecosystem (ecosystem-based management, adaptive management, co-management, adaptive eco-management, and active adaptive management)'''
* '''Adopting complementary productive activities to reduce economic dependence on fisheries'''
* '''Developing capacity'''
* '''Improving information flows in adaptive co-management transboundary resource management'''
* '''Gear or vessel modifications'''

| Fisheries

| * Promote sustainable harvesting and fair distribution of wild fish products and revenues
* Proactive dynamic fisheries management and diversification based on scientific, Indigenous and local knowledge will facilitate adaptive fisheries planning and reduce conflict (national and international) over resources

|
| ''Medium''

| (5.14.3.4; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter)

|-
| * '''Adaptation options that incorporate ecological knowledge and risk into management decisions in the near and long term'''

| Aquaculture

| * Enhance sustainable aquaculture production

| Governance that recognises unexploited biological and socioeconomic food system synergies and equity would lead to positive adaptation strategy development and implementation, but options may be limited for those most at risk due to technological cost and low financial access

| ''High''

| (5.14.3.5)

|-
| * '''Effective linkage of freshwater aquatic food provisioning management to the adaptation plans of other water-using sectors, considering trade-offs of production with community nutritional needs'''

| Freshwater fisheries and aquaculture systems

| * Reduce the risk of food insecurity and livelihood loss for those reliant on freshwater for inland fisheries and aquaculture

| Changing precipitation patterns will increase competition for limited freshwater supplies

| ''Medium''

| (5.8.4, 5.9.4.)

|-
| * '''Agricultural production systems that integrate crops, livestock, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture'''

| Mixed system

| * Increase food production per unit of land
* Reduce climate risks
* Reduce GHG emission
* Confer buffering capacity
* Increasing household resilience, though the benefits and challenges depend on local context

| Uncertainties exist concerning the scalability of integrated systems; their uptake faces particular barriers around risk, land tenure, social inclusion, information and management skill, and the nature and timing of benefit flows

| ''High''

| (5.10.4)

|-
| * '''Investments in improved humidity and temperature control in storage facilities for perishable items, and changes in public policy that control international trade and domestic market transactions'''

| Post-harvest

| * Improve food utilisation and access and thereby resilience to climate change

| The extent to which adaptation activities beyond harvest are cost-effective, and the limits to such adaptation, are location-specific and largely unknown

| ''Medium''

| (5.11.4)

|-
| * '''Integrated multi-sectoral food system adaptation approaches that address food production, consumption and equity issues'''
* '''Nutrition and gender-sensitive agriculture programmes, adaptive social protection and disaster risk management are examples'''

| Production and post-harvest

| * Protect vulnerable groups against livelihood risks
* Enhance responsiveness to extreme events

| Differentiated responses based on food security level and climate risk can be effective

| ''Medium''

| (5.12.4)

|-
| * '''Rights-based approaches, including legislation, gender transformative approaches to agriculture, recognition of rights to land, seeds, fishing areas and other natural resources, and community-based adaptation'''

| Production and post-harvest

| * Improved food security and nutrition for marginalised groups
* Increased resilience through capacity-building of marginalised groups
* Address questions of access to resources for marginalised groups

| Focus on meaningful participation in governance, design and implementation of adaptation strategies of those groups who are vulnerable, including gender. Can be conflicts and trade-offs, such as between addressing land rights or traditional fishing grounds

| ''Medium''

| (5.12.4)

|-
| * '''Climate services'''

| Production

| * Can support decision makers in agriculture by providing tailored information that can inform the implementation of specific adaptation options

| For some high- and medium-income countries, evidence suggests that climate services have been underutilised. In low-income countries, use of climate services can increase yields and incomes and promote changes in farmers’ practices, but ''low confidence'' that climate services are delivering on their potential, whether they are being accessed by the vulnerable, and how these services are contributing to food security and nutrition

| ''Medium''

| (5.14.1)

|}

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