Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-8 (section)

==== 8.2.1.1 Interactions Between Climate Hazards and Non-climatic Stressors Affecting Livelihoods ====

<div id="h3-1-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

New evidence highlights the potential for multi-hazard risks to push the poor into persistent traps of extreme poverty ( [[#Räsänen--2016|Räsänen et al., 2016]] ). Risk of extreme impoverishment increases for low-income people experiencing repeated and successive climatic events, whereby before they have recovered from one disaster, they face another impact ( [[#Forzieri--2016|Forzieri et al., 2016]] ). Cascading and compounding risks arise from multiple climate hazards coinciding to produce impacts, for example, in mountainous regions, where the combination of glacier recession and extreme rainfall result in landslides ( [[#Martha--2015|Martha et al., 2015]] ). There is ''robust evidence'' that this effect has been observed around slow- and rapid-onset climate events related to drought (i.e., rising temperatures, heatwaves and rainfall scarcity), with devastating consequences for agriculture ( [[#Vogt--2018|Vogt et al., 2018]] ; [[#Bouwer--2019|Bouwer, 2019]] ). In particular, the urban and rural landless poor face difficulties rebuilding assets following one-off disasters or a series of shocks ( [[#Garcia-Aristizabal--2015|Garcia-Aristizabal et al., 2015]] ).

Climate change is one driver among many that challenges livelihoods of the rural poor, including economic transitions associated with industrialisation and urbanisation, and also governance failures such as unclear property rights and civil conflict (e.g., [[#Nyantakyi-Frimpong--2015|Nyantakyi-Frimpong and Bezner-Kerr, 2015]] ). Recent research adds evidence about the ways that climate hazards impact non-climatic stressors with implications for poverty reduction ( [[#Nelson--2016|Nelson et al., 2016]] ). The risk that climate hazards may push the poor into persistent extreme poverty intensifies with stagnant wages, rising costs of living, mobility traps, and ethnic or religious discrimination ( [[#Cramer--2014|Cramer et al., 2014]] ; [[#Carter--2016|Carter et al., 2016]] ). Likewise in both urban and rural environments, non-climatic factors related to governance exacerbate the impacts of climate events among the poorest, including poor service provisioning (e.g., waste collection), poor urban planning (e.g., waste water drainage) and water management failures ( [[#Di%20Baldassarre--2010|Di Baldassarre et al., 2010]] ; [[#Leal%20Filho--2018|Leal Filho et al., 2018]] ), as well as poor rangeland management, intensification of farming land uses (i.e., overgrazing, deforestation), degradation of wetlands, shortage of water and soil erosion in rural areas ( [[#Olsson--2019|Olsson et al., 2019]] ).

A key risk for the poor is shocks to specific livelihood assets that may force low-income groups into persistent poverty traps (Figure 8.4; [[#Chambers--1992|Chambers and Conway, 1992]] ; [[#Cinner--2018|Cinner et al., 2018]] ) but research also suggests that climate change impacts are also driving transient forms of poverty, a modality of poverty which is recurring ( [[#Angelsen--2014|Angelsen et al., 2014]] ). Recurrent poverty is, for instance, seen in relation to crop losses and decreasing agricultural production when income losses worsen living conditions ( [[#Ward--2016|Ward, 2016]] ; [[#Kihara--2020|Kihara et al., 2020]] ). Recent research shows that climate change impacts may exacerbate poverty indirectly through increasing cost of food, housing and healthcare, among other rising costs borne by the poor ( [[#Islam--2014|Islam et al., 2014]] ; [[#Ebi--2017|Ebi et al., 2017]] ; [[#Hallegatte--2018|Hallegatte et al., 2018]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ). Severe adverse impacts of climate change at present and future risks may result from permanent, sudden, destabilising changes accompanying climate events such as decreases in food security, large-scale migration, changes in labour capacity or conflict ( [[#Bentley--2014|Bentley et al., 2014]] ). Overall, there is more evidence that even under medium warming pathways, climate change risks to poverty would become severe if vulnerability is high and adaptation is low ( ''limited evidence, high agreement'' ) (see [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-16#16.5.2.3|Section 16.5.2.3.4]] )

Reliable and precise estimates of the impacts of climate change on persistent poverty are difficult to generate, for example, due to data scarcity and data gaps ( [[#Hallegatte--2015|Hallegatte et al., 2015]] ; [[#Hallegatte--2018|Hallegatte et al., 2018]] ; [[#Kugler--2019|Kugler et al., 2019]] ). However, progress has been made towards detection and attribution of climate change impacts on the poorest by linking standard climate observations in low-income countries with new non-traditional forms of data (including Indigenous knowledge, historical archival data, satellite imagery, and data from digital devices) ( [[#Kuffer--2016|Kuffer et al., 2016]] ; [[#Lu--2016|Lu et al., 2016]] ; [[#Bennett--2017|Bennett and Smith, 2017]] ; [[#Steele--2017|Steele et al., 2017]] ).

<div id="8.2.1.2" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="links-between-climate-related-hazards-observed-losses-poverty-and-inequality-globally"></span>