Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

===== Adaptation =====

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'''With global warming increasing above present-day levels, the ability of adaptation responses to offset risk is substantially reduced (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Crop yield losses, even after adaptation, are projected to rise rapidly above 2°C global warming. Limits to adaptation are already being reached in coral reef ecosystems. Immigration of species from elsewhere may partly compensate for local extinctions and/or lead to local biodiversity gains in some regions. However, more African regions face net losses than net gains. At 1.5°C global warming, over 46% of localities face net losses in terrestrial vertebrate species richness with net increases projected for under 15% of localities. {9.6.1.4, 9.6.2.2, 9.8.2.1, 9.8.2.2, 9.8.4}

'''Technological, institutional and financing factors are major barriers to climate adaptation feasibility in Africa (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' {9.3, 9.4.1}

'''There is limited evidence for economic growth alone reducing climate damages, but under scenarios of inclusive and sustainable development, millions fewer people in Africa will be pushed into extreme poverty by climate change and negative impacts to health and livelihoods can be reduced by 2030 (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' {9.10.3, 9.11.4}

'''Gender-sensitive and equity-based adaptation approaches reduce vulnerability for marginalised groups across multiple sectors in Africa, including water, health, food systems and livelihoods (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' {9.7.3, 9.8.3, 9.9.5, 9.10.3, 9.11.4, Boxes 9.1, 9.2}

'''Integrating climate adaptation into social protection programmes, such as cash transfers, public works programmes and healthcare access, can increase resilience to climate change (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Nevertheless, social protection programmes may increase resilience to climate-related shocks, even if they do not specifically address climate risks. {9.4.2, 9.10.3, 9.11.4}

'''The diversity of African Indigenous Knowledge and local knowledge systems provide a rich foundation for adaptation actions at local scales (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' African Indigenous Knowledge systems are exceptionally rich in ecosystem-specific knowledge used for management of climate variability. Integration of Indigenous Knowledge systems within legal frameworks, and promotion of Indigenous land tenure rights can reduce vulnerability. {9.4.4, Boxes 9.1, 9.2}

'''Early warning systems based on targeted climate services can be effective for disaster risk reduction, social protection programmes, and managing risks to health and food systems (e.g., vector-borne disease and crops) (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' {9.4.5, 9.5.1, Box 9.2, 9.8.4, 9.8.5, 9.10.3, 9.11.4}

'''Risk-sensitive infrastructure delivery and equitable provision of basic services can reduce climate risks and provide net financial savings (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' However, there is limited evidence of proactive climate adaptation in African cities. Proactive adaptation policy could reduce road repair and maintenance costs by 74% compared to a reactive policy. Adapting roads for increased temperatures and investment in public transport are assessed as ‘no regret’ options. In contrast, hydropower development carries risk of regrets due to damages when a different climate than was expected materialises. Energy costs for cooling demands are projected to accumulate to USD 51.3 billion by 2035 at 2°C global warming and to USD 486.5 billion by 2076 at 4°C. {9.8.5}

'''Reduced drought and flood risk, and improved water and sanitation access, can be delivered by water sensitive and climate scenario planning, monitored groundwater use, waterless on-site sanitation, rainwater harvesting and water re-use, reducing risk to human settlements, food systems, economies and human health (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' {9.8, 9.9, 9.10, 9.11}

'''Water sector adaptation measures show medium social and economic feasibility but low feasibility for most African cities due to technical and institutional restrictions, particularly for large supply dams and centralised distribution systems (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' {9.3.1, 9.7.3} Use of integrated water management, water supply augmentation and establishment of decentralised water management systems can reduce risk. Integrated water management measures including sub-national financing, demand management through subsidies, rates and taxes, and sustainable water technologies can reduce water insecurity caused by either drought or floods ( ''medium confidence'' ). {9.7.3, Box 9.4}

'''Agricultural and livelihood diversification, agroecological and conservation agriculture practices, aquaculture, on-farm engineering and agroforestry can increase resilience and sustainability of food systems in Africa under climate change (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' However, smallholder farmers tend to address short-term shocks or stresses by deploying coping responses rather than transformative adaptations. Climate information services, institutional capacity building, secure land tenure, and strategic financial investment can help overcome these barriers to adaptation ( ''medium confidence'' ). {9.3.1, 9.4.5, 9.8.3, 9.8.5}

'''African countries and communities are inadequately insured against climate risk, but innovative index-based insurance schemes can help transfer risk and aid recovery, including in food systems (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Despite their potential, uptake of climate insurance products remains constrained by lack of affordability, awareness and product diversity. {9.4.5, 9.8.4, 9.11.4.1}

'''Human migration is a potentially effective adaptation strategy across food systems, water, livelihoods and in climate-induced conflict areas, but can also be maladaptive if vulnerability is increased, particularly for health and human settlements (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' . Migration of men from rural areas can aggravate the work burden faced by women. The more agency migrants have (i.e., degree of voluntarity and freedom of movement) the greater the potential benefits for sending and receiving areas ''(high agreement, medium evidence).'' {9.3, 9.8.3, 9.9.1–3, 9.10.2.2.2, Boxes 9.8, 9.9, Cross-Chapter Box MIGRATE in Chapter 7}

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