Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/SPM (section)

=== Risks in the near term (2021–2040) ===

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'''B.3 Global warming, reaching 1.5°C in the near-term, would cause unavoidable increases in multiple climate hazards and present multiple risks to ecosystems and humans ( '''''very high confidence''''' ). The level of risk will depend on concurrent near-term trends in vulnerability, exposure, level of socioeconomic development and adaptation ( '''''high confidence''''' ). Near-term actions that limit global warming to close to 1.5°C would substantially reduce projected losses and damages related to climate change in human systems and ecosystems, compared to higher warming levels, but cannot eliminate them all ( '''''very high confidence''''' )   Expand [[#figure-spm-3|Figure SPM.3]] [[#box-spm-1|Box SPM.1]] Links to chapters 16.4, 16.5, 16.6, CCP1.2, CCP5.3, CCB SLR, WGI AR6 SPM B1.3, WGI AR6 Table SPM.1'''
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'''B.3.1''' Near-term warming and increased frequency, severity and duration of extreme events will place many terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine ecosystems at high or very high risks of biodiversity loss ( ''medium to very high confidence'' , depending on ecosystem). Near-term risks for biodiversity loss are moderate to high in forest ecosystems ( ''medium confidence'' ), kelp and seagrass ecosystems ( ''high'' to ''very high confidence'' ), and high to very high in Arctic sea-ice and terrestrial ecosystems ( ''high confidence'' ) and warm-water coral reefs ( ''very high confidence'' ). Continued and accelerating sea level rise will encroach on coastal settlements and infrastructure ( ''high confidence'' ) and commit low-lying coastal ecosystems to submergence and loss ( ''medium confidence'' ). If trends in urbanisation in exposed areas continue, this will exacerbate the impacts, with more challenges where energy, water and other services are constrained ( ''medium confidence'' ). The number of people at risk from climate change and associated loss of biodiversity will progressively increase ( ''medium confidence'' ). Violent conflict and, separately, migration patterns, in the near-term will be driven by socioeconomic conditions and governance more than by climate change ( ''medium confidence'' ). (Figure SPM.3) { 2.5, 3.4, 4.6, 6.2, 7.3, 8.7, 9.2, 9.9, 11.6, 12.5, 13.6, 13.10, 14.6, 15.3, 16.5, 16.6, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP1.2 CCP1.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.1 CCP2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.3 CCP5.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.3 CCP6.3] , CCB MIGRATE, CCB SLR }

'''B.3.2''' In the near term, climate-associated risks to natural and human systems depend more strongly on changes in their vulnerability and exposure than on differences in climate hazards between emissions scenarios ( ''high confidence'' ). Regional differences exist, and risks are highest where species and people exist close to their upper thermal limits, along coastlines, in close association with ice or seasonal rivers ( ''high confidence'' ). Risks are also high where multiple non-climate drivers persist or where vulnerability is otherwise elevated ( ''high confidence'' ). Many of these risks are unavoidable in the near-term, irrespective of emissions scenario ( ''high confidence'' ). Several risks can be moderated with adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure SPM.3, Section C) { 2.5, 3.3, 3.4, 4.5, 6.2, 7.1, 7.3, 8.2, 11.6, 12.4, 13.6, 13.7, 13.10, 14.5, 16.4, 16.5, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP4.3 CCP4.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.3 CCP5.3] , CCB SLR, WGI AR6 Table SPM.1 }

'''B.3.3''' Levels of risk for all Reasons for Concern (RFC) are assessed to become high to very high at lower global warming levels than in AR5 ( ''high confidence'' ). Between 1.2°C and 4.5°C global warming level very high risks emerge in all five RFCs compared to just two RFCs in AR5 ( ''high confidence'' ). Two of these transitions from high to very high risk are associated with near-term warming: risks to unique and threatened systems at a median value of 1.5 [1.2 to 2.0] °C ( ''high confidence'' ) and risks associated with extreme weather events at a median value of 2.0 [1.8 to 2.5] °C ( ''medium confidence'' ). Some key risks contributing to the RFCs are projected to lead to widespread, pervasive, and potentially irreversible impacts at global warming levels of 1.5–2°C if exposure and vulnerability are high and adaptation is low ( ''medium confidence'' ). Near-term actions that limit global warming to close to 1.5°C would substantially reduce projected losses and damages related to climate change in human systems and ecosystems, compared to higher warming levels, but cannot eliminate them all ( ''very high confidence'' ). (Figure SPM.3b) { 16.5, 16.6, CCB SLR }

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