Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/TS (section)

== TS.B Observed Impacts ==

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This section reports on how worldwide climate change is increasingly affecting marine, freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems and ecosystem services, water and food security, settlements and infrastructure, health and well-being, and economies and culture, especially through compound stresses and events. It refers to the increasing confidence since AR5 that detected impacts are attributable to climate change, including the impacts of extreme events. It illustrates how compound hazards have become more frequent in all world regions, with widespread consequences. Regional increases in temperature, aridity and drought have increased the frequency and intensity of fire. The interaction between fire, land use change, particularly deforestation, and climate change, is directly impacting human health, ecosystem functioning, forest structure, food security and the livelihoods of resource-dependent communities.

Climate change impacts are concurrent and interact with other significant societal changes that have become more salient since AR5, including a growing and urbanising global population; significant inequality and demands for social justice; rapid technological change; continuing poverty, land and water degradation, biodiversity loss; food insecurity; and a global pandemic.

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=== Ecosystems and biodiversity ===

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'''TS.B.1 Climate change has altered marine, terrestrial and freshw''' '''ater ecosystems all around the world (''' '''''very high confiden''''' '''''ce''''' '''). Ef''' '''fects were experienced earlier and are more widespread wi''' '''th m''' '''ore far-reaching consequences than anticipated (''' '''''mediu''''' '''''m co''''' '''''nfidence''''' '''). Biological responses, including changes in''' '''physio''' '''logy, growth, abundance, geographic placement and shifti''' '''ng se''' '''asonal timing, are often not sufficient to cope with rece''' '''nt''' '''climate''' '''change (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''). Climate change has caused local species losses, increases in disease (''' '''''high''''' '''''confidence''''' ''') and mass mortality events of plants and animals (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''), resulting in the first climate-driven''' '''extinctions''' '''(''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''), ecosystem restructuring, increases in areas burned by wildfire (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''') and declines in key ecosystem services (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Climate-driven''' '''impacts''' '''on ecosystems have caused measurable economic and livelihood losses and altered cultural practices and recreational activities around the world (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' (Figure TS.3, Figure TS.5 ECOSYSTEMS) { 2.3.1, 2.3.3, 2.4.2, 2.4.3, 2.4.4, 2.4.5, 3.2, 3.3.2, 3.3.3, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, Box 3.2, 3.5.3, 3.5.5, 3.5.6, 4.3.5, 9.6.1, 9.6.3, 10.4.2., 11.3.1, 11.3.2, 11.3.11, 11.3.2, 11.3.11, 12.3, 13.3.1, 13.4.1, 13.10.1, 14.2.1, 14.5.1, 14.5.2; 15.3.3., 15.3.4, 16.2.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.2.1 CCP1.2.1] ; [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.2.2 CCP1.2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.2.4 CCP1.2.4] , Box [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.1 CCP1.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP3.2.1 CCP3.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP4.1.3 CCP4.1.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.1 CCP5.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.7 CCP5.2.7] , CP6.1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.1 CCP6.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.2.1 CCP7.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.3.2 CCP7.3.2] , Table 2.2, Table 2.3, Table 2.S. 1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.1 CCP5.2.1] , CCB EXTREMES, CCB ILLNESS, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR }

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'''Figure TS.3 |''' '''Observed global and regional impacts on ecosystems and human systems attributed to climate change.''' Confidence levels reflect uncertainty in attribution of the observed impact to climate change. Global assessments focus on large studies, multi-species, meta-analyses and large reviews. For that reason they can be assessed with higher confidence than regional studies, which may often rely on smaller studies that have more limited data. Regional assessments consider evidence on impacts across an entire region and do not focus on any country in particular.

'''(a)''' Climate change has already altered terrestrial, freshwater and ocean ecosystems at global scale, with multiple impacts evident at regional and local scales where there is sufficient literature to make an assessment. Impacts are evident on ecosystem structure, species geographic ranges and timing of seasonal life cycles (phenology) (for methodology and detailed references to chapters and cross-chapter papers see SMTS.1 and SMTS.1.1).

'''(b)''' Climate change has already had diverse adverse impacts on human systems, including on water security and food production, health and well-being, and cities, settlements and infrastructure. The + and – symbols indicate the direction of observed impacts, with a – denoting an increasing adverse impact and a ± denoting that, within a region or globally, both adverse and positive impacts have been observed (e.g., adverse impacts in one area or food item may occur with positive impacts in another area or food item). Globally, ‘–’ denotes an overall adverse impact; ‘Water scarcity’ considers, e.g., water availability in general, groundwater, water quality, demand for water, drought in cities. Impacts on food production were assessed by excluding non-climatic drivers of production increases; Global assessment for agricultural production is based on the impacts on global aggregated production; ‘Reduced animal and livestock health and productivity’ considers, e.g., heat stress, diseases, productivity, mortality; ‘Reduced fisheries yields and aquaculture production’ includes marine and freshwater fisheries/production; ‘Infectious diseases’ include, e.g., water-borne and vector-borne diseases; ‘Heat, malnutrition and other’ considers, e.g., human heat-related morbidity and mortality, labour productivity, harm from wildfire, nutritional deficiencies; ‘Mental health’ includes impacts from extreme weather events, cumulative events, and vicarious or anticipatory events; ‘Displacement’ assessments refer to evidence of displacement attributable to climate and weather extremes; ‘Inland flooding and associated damages’ considers, e.g., river overflows, heavy rain, glacier outbursts, urban flooding; ‘Flood/storm induced damages in coastal areas’ include damages due to, e.g., cyclones, sea level rise, storm surges. Damages by key economic sectors are observed impacts related to an attributable mean or extreme climate hazard or directly attributed. Key economic sectors include standard classifications and sectors of importance to regions (for methodology and detailed references to chapters and cross-chapter papers see SMTS.1 and SMTS.1.2).

'''TS.B.1.1 Anthropogenic climate change has exposed ecosystems to conditions that are unprecedented over millennia (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), which has greatly impacted species on land and in the ocean (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Consistent with expectations, species in all ecosystems have shifted their geographic ranges and altered the timing of seasonal events ( ''very high confidence'' ). Among thousands of species spread across terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems, half to two-thirds have shifted their ranges to higher latitudes ( ''very high confidence'' ), and approximately two-thirds have shifted towards earlier spring life events ( ''very high confidence'' ) in response to warming. The move of diseases and their vectors has brought new diseases into the high Arctic and at higher elevations in mountain regions to which local wildlife and humans are not resistant ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' These processes have led to emerging hybridisation, competition, temporal or spatial mismatches in predator–prey, insect–plant and host–parasite relationships and invasion of alien plant pests or pathogens ( ''medium confidence'' ). (Figure TS.5 ECOSYSTEMS) { 2.4.2, 2.4.3, 2.5.2, 2.5.4, 2.6.1, 3.2.4, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 3.5.2, 4.3.5, 9.6.1, 10.4.2, 11.3.1, 11.3.2; 11.3.11, 12.3.1, 12.3.2, 12.3.7, 13.3.1, 13.4.1, 13.10.2, 14.5.1, 14.5.2; 15.3.3. 16.2.3, 16.2.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.2.1 CCP1.2.1] , CCP 1.2.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.2.4 CCP1.2.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP3.2.1 CCP3.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP4.1.3 CCP4.1.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.1 CCP5.2.1] , CCP.5.2.7, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.1 CCP6.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.3.2 CCP7.3.2] , CCB EXTREMES, CCB ILLNESS, CCB MOVING PLATE }

'''TS.B.1.2 Observed responses of species to climate change have altered biodiversity and impacted ecosystem structure and resilience in most regions (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Range shifts reduce biodiversity in the warmest regions and locations as adaptation limits are exceeded ( ''high confidence'' ). Simultaneously, these shifts homogenise biodiversity ( ''medium confidence'' ) in regions receiving climate-migrant species, alter food webs and eliminate the distinctiveness of communities ( ''medium confidence'' ). Increasing losses of habitat-forming species such as trees, corals, kelp and seagrass have caused irreversible shifts in some ecosystems and threaten associated biodiversity in marine systems ( ''high confidence'' ). Human-introduced invasive (non-native) species can reduce or replace native species and alter ecosystem characteristics if they fare better than endemic species in new climate-altered ecological niches ( ''high confidence'' ). Such invasive species effects are most prominent in geographically constrained areas, including islands, semi-enclosed seas and mountains, and they increase vulnerability in these systems ( ''high confidence'' ). Phenological shifts increase the risks of temporal mismatches between trophic levels within ecosystems ( ''medium confidence'' ), which can lead to reduced food availability and population abundances ( ''medium confidence'' ) and can further destabilise ecosystem resilience. (Figure TS.5 ECOSYSTEMS) { 2.4.2, 2.4.3, 2.4.5, Box 2.1, 2.5.4, 3.3.3, 3.4.2, 3.4.3. Box 3.2, Box 3.4, 3.5.2, 3.5.3, 4.3.5, 9.6.1, 10.4.2, 11.3.1, 11.3.2, 11.3.11, 13.3.1, 13.4.1, 13.10.2, 14.5.1, 15.3.3, 15.3.4, 15.8, Box [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.1 CCP1.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.2.2 CCP1.2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.2.1 CCP1.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP3.2.1 CCP3.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.1 CCP5.2.1] , CCB EXTREMES }

'''TS.B.1.3 At the warm (equatorward and lower) edges of distributions, adaptation limits to human-induced warming have led to widespread local population losses (extirpations) that result in range contractions (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Among land plants and animals, local population loss was detected in around 50% of studied species and is often attributable to extreme events ( ''high confidence'' ). Such extirpations are most common in tropical habitats (55%) and freshwater systems (74%), but also high in marine (51%) and terrestrial (46%) habitats. Many mountain-top species have suffered population losses along lower elevations, leaving them increasingly restricted to a smaller area and at higher risk of extinction ( ''medium confidence'' ). Global extinctions due to climate change are already being observed, with two extinctions currently attributed to anthropogenic climate change ( ''medium confidence'' ). Climate-induced extinctions, including mass extinctions, are common in the palaeo record, underlining the potential of climate change to have catastrophic impacts on species and ecosystems ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.5 ECOSYSTEMS) { 2.3.1, 2.3.3, 2.4.2, 2.4.5, 2.5.4, 3.3.3, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, Box 3.2, 9.6.1, 11.3.1, 12.3, 13.4.1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.2.1 CCP1.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.1 CCP5.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.7 CCP5.2.7] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.2.1 CCP7.2.1] , CCB EXTREMES, CCB PALEO }

'''TS.B.1.4 Ecosystem change has led to the loss of specialised ecosystems where warming has reduced thermal habitat, as at the poles, at the tops of mountains and at the equator, with the hottest ecosystems becoming intolerable for many species (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' For example, warming, reduced ice, thawing permafrost and a changing hydrological cycle have resulted in the contraction of polar and mountain ecosystems. The Arctic is showing increased arrival of species from warmer areas on land and in the sea, with a declining extent of tundra and ice-dependent species, such as the polar bear ( ''high confidence'' ). Similar patterns of change in the Antarctic terrestrial and marine environment are beginning to emerge, such as declining ranges of krill and emperor penguins ( ''medium confidence'' ). Coral reefs are suffering global declines, with abrupt shifts in community composition persisting for years ( ''very high confidence'' ). Deserts and tropical systems are decreasing in diversity due to heat stress and extreme events ( ''high confidence'' ). In contrast, arid lands are displaying varied responses around the globe in response to regional changes in the hydrological cycle ( ''high confidence'' ). { 2.3.1, 2.3.3, 2.4.2, 2.4.3, 3.2.2, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 3.5.3, 9.6.1, 10.4.3, 11.3.2, 11.3.11, 12.3.1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.2.4 CCP1.2.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP3.2.1 CCP3.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP3.2.2 CCP3.2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP4.3.2 CCP4.3.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.1 CCP5.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.1 CCP6.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , CCB EXTREMES }

'''TS.B.1.5 Climate change is affecting ecosystem services connected to human health, livelihoods and well-being (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' In terrestrial ecosystems, carbon uptake services linked to CO 2 fertilisation effects are being increasingly limited by drought and warming and exacerbated by non-climatic anthropogenic impacts ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Deforestation, draining and burning of peatlands and tropical forests and thawing of Arctic permafrost have already shifted some areas from being carbon sinks to carbon sources ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' The severity and outbreak extent of forest insect pests increased in several regions ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Woody plant expansion into grasslands and savannahs, linked to increased CO 2 , has reduced grazing land, while invasive grasses in semiarid lands increased the risk of fire ( ''high confidence'' ). Coastal ‘blue carbon’ systems are already impacted by multiple climate and non-climate drivers ( ''very high confidence'' ). Warming and CO 2 fertilisation have altered coastal ecosystem biodiversity, making carbon storage or release regionally variable ( ''high confidence'' ). { 2.2, Table 2.1, 2.4.2, 2.4.3, 2.4.4, Box 2.1, 3.4.2, 3.5.3, 3.5.5, Table Box 3.4.2, Box 3.4, 9.6.1, 10.4.3, 11.3.11, 11.3.7, 12.3.3, 12.4, Figure 12.8, Figure 12.9, 13.3.1, 13.5.1, 14.5.1, 15.3.3, 15.5.6, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.2.2 CCP1.2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.2.4 CCP1.2.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.1 CCP5.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.3 CCP5.2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.3.1 CCP7.3.1] , Box [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.1 CCP7.1] }

'''TS.B.1.6 Human communities, especially Indigenous Peoples and those more directly reliant on the environment for subsistence, are already negatively impacted by the loss of ecosystem functions, replacement of endemic species and regime shifts across landscapes and seascapes (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Indigenous knowledge contains unique information sources about past changes and potential solutions to present issues ( ''medium confidence'' ). Tangible heritage, such as traditional harvesting sites or species and archaeological and cultural heritage sites, and intangible heritage, such as festivals and rites associated with nature-based activities, endemic knowledge and unique insights about plants and animals, are being lost ( ''high confidence'' ). As 80% of the world’s remaining biodiversity is on Indigenous homelands, these losses have cascading impacts on cultural and linguistic diversity and Indigenous knowledge systems, food security, health, and livelihoods, often with irreparable damage and consequences ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). Cultural losses threaten adaptive capacity and may accumulate into intergenerational trauma and irrevocable losses of sense of belonging, valued cultural practices, identity and home ( ''medium confidence'' ). { 2.2, Table 2.1, 2.6.5, 3.5.6, 4.3.5, 4.3.8, 5.4.2, 6.3.3, Box 9.2, 9.12.1, 11.4.1, 11.4.2, 12.5.8, 13.8.1, Box 13.2, 14.4, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.5 CCP5.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.7 CCP5.2.7] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , Box [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.1 CCP7.1] }

'''TS.B.2 Widespread and severe loss and damage to human and natural systems are being driven by human-induced climate changes increasing the frequency and/or intensity and/or duration of extreme weather events, including droughts, wildfires, terrestrial and marine heatwaves, cyclones (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''') and flood (''' '''''low confidence''''' '''). Extremes are surpassing the resilience of some ecological and human systems and challenging the adaptation capacities of others, including impacts with irreversible consequences (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Vulnerable people and human systems and climate-sensitive species and ecosystems are most at risk (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' (Figure TS.3) { 2.3, 2.3.1, 2.3.1, 2.3.3, 2.4.2, 2.4.5, 2.6.1, 3.2.2, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 3.5.2, 3.5.3, 4.2.4, 4.2.5, 10.1, 11.2, 12.3, 13.1, 14.1, 15.1, 16.2.3, CCB EXTREMES, WGI AR6 SPM, WGI AR6 9, SROCC SPM }

'''TS.B.2.1 Extreme climate events comprising conditions beyond which many species are adapted are occurring on all continents, with severe impacts (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' The most severe impacts are occurring in the most climate-sensitive species and ecosystems, characterised by traits that limit their abilities to regenerate between events or to adapt, and those most exposed to climate hazards ( ''high confidence'' ). Losses of local plant and animal populations have been widespread, many associated with large increases in hottest yearly temperatures and heatwave events ( ''very high confidence'' ). Marine heatwave events have led to widespread, abrupt and extensive mortality of key habitat-forming species among tropical corals, kelps, seagrasses and mangroves, as well as mass mortality of wildlife species, including benthic sessile species ( ''high confidence'' ). On land, extreme heat events also have been implicated in the mass mortality of fruit bats and freshwater fish. (Figure TS.3, Figure TS.5 ECOSYSTEMS) { 2.3.1, 2.3.3, 2.4.2, 2.4.4, 2.6, Table 2.2, Table 2.3, Table 2.S. 1, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 3.5.2, 11.3.2, Figure 12.8, 12.4, Table 11.4, 13.3.1, 13.4.1, CCB EXTREMES }

'''TS.B.2.2 Some extreme events have already emerged which exceeded projected global mean warming conditions for 2100, leading to abrupt changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' . For some forest types an increase in the frequency, severity and duration of wildfires and droughts has resulted in abrupt and possibly irreversible changes ( ''medium to high confidence'' ). The interplay between extreme events, long-term climate trends and other human pressures has pushed some climate-sensitive ecosystems towards thresholds that exceed their natural regenerative capacity ( ''medium to high confidence'' ). Extreme events can alter or impede evolutionary responses to climate change and the potential for acclimation to extreme conditions both on land and in the ocean ( ''medium to high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.5 ECOSYSTEMS) { 2.3.1, 2.3.3, 2.4.2, 2.4.3, 2.4.5, 2.4.4, 2.6.1, 3.2.2, 3.2.4, 3.4.2, 4.3.5, Table 3.15, 3.6.3, 11.3.1, 11.3.2, 13.3.1, 13.4.1, 14.5.1, CCB MOVING PLATE, CCB EXTREMES }

'''TS.B.2.3 Climate-related extremes have affected the productivity of agricultural, forestry and fishery sectors (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Droughts, floods, wildfires and marine heatwaves contribute to reduced food availability and increased food prices, threatening food security, nutrition and livelihoods of millions of people across regions (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Extreme events caused economic losses in forest productivity and crops and livestock farming, including losses in wheat production in 2012, 2016 and 2018, with the severity of impacts from extreme heat and drought tripling over the last 50 years in Europe ( ''high confidence'' ). Forests were impacted by extreme heat and drought impacting timber sales, for example, in Europe ( ''high confidence'' ). Marine heatwaves, including well-documented events along the west coast of North America (2013–2016) and east coast of Australia (2015–2016, 2016–2017 and 2020), have caused the collapse of regional fisheries and aquaculture ( ''high confidence'' ). Human populations exposed to extreme weather and climate events are at risk of food insecurity with lower diversity in diets, leading to malnutrition and increased risk of disease ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.6 WATER-FOOD) { 2.4.4, 3.2.2, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 3.5.3, 4.2.4, 4.2.5, 4.3.1, 5.2.1, 5.4.1, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 5.8.1, 5.9.1, 5.12.1, 5.14.2, 5.14.6, 7.2.1, 7.2.2, 7.2.3, 7.2.4, 7.2.5, 9.7, 9.8.2, 9.8.5, 11.3.3, 11.5.1, 11.8.1, 12.3, Figure 12.7, Figure 12.9, Table SM12.5, 13.1.1, 13.3.1, 13.5.1, 13.10.2, 14.5.4, CCB MOVING PLATE, WGI AR6 9 }

'''TS.B.2.4 Extreme climatic events have been observed in all inhabited regions, with many regions experiencing unprecedented consequences, particularly when multiple hazards occur at the same time or within the same space (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''')''' '''''.''''' Since AR5, the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events such as wildfires, extreme heat, cyclones, storms and floods have adversely affected or caused loss and damage to human health, shelter, displacement, incomes and livelihoods, security and inequality ( ''high confidence'' ). Over 20 million people have been internally displaced annually by weather-related extreme events since 2008, with storms and floods the most common drivers ( ''high confidence'' ). Climate-related extreme events are followed by negative impacts on mental health, well-being, life satisfaction, happiness, cognitive performance and aggression in exposed populations ( ''very high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.8 HEALTH, Figure TS.10 COMPLEX RISK) { 2.3.0, 2.3.1, 2.3.3, 4.2.4, 4.2.5, 4.3, 7.1, 7.2.4, 7.2.6, 8.2.1, 8.2.2, 8.3.2, 8.3.3, Box 9.4, Table 9.7, 9.7, 9.9, 9.11, 11.2.1, 11.2.2, 11.3.8, Table 11.2, Table 11.3, Box 11.6, Box 9.8, 12.4.7, 13.1, 13.2.1, 13.7.1, 13.10.2, 14.5.6, 15.1, 15.2.1, 15.3.3, 16.2.3, CCB EXTREMES, CCB HEALTH, CCB MIGRATE }

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=== Food systems, food security and forestry ===

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'''TS.B.3 Climate change is already stressing food and forestry systems, with negative consequences for the livelihoods, food security and nutrition of hundreds of millions of people, especially in low and mid-latitudes (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). The global food system is failing to address food insecurity and malnutrition in an environmentally sustainable way.''' (Figure TS.2, Figure TS.3, Figure TS.6 FOOD-WATER, Figure TS.7 VULNERABILITY) { 4.3.1, 5.4.1, 5.5.1, 5.7.1, 5.8.1, 5.9.1, 5.10.1, 5.11.1, 5.12.1, 6.3.4.7; 7.2, 9.8.1, 9.8.2, 13.10, 9.8, 10.3.5, 12.3, 13.5.1, 14.5.1, 14.5.4, 15.3.3, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.3 CCP5.2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.5 CCP5.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2.7] , CCB NATURAL }

'''TS.B 3.1 Climate change impacts are negatively affecting agriculture, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture, increasingly hindering efforts to meet human needs (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' . Human-induced global warming has slowed the growth of agricultural productivity over the past 50 years in mid and low latitudes ( ''medium confidence'' ). Crop yields are compromised by surface ozone ( ''high confidence'' ). Methane emissions have negatively impacted crop yields by increasing temperatures and surface ozone concentrations ( ''medium confidence'' ). Warming is negatively affecting crop and grassland quality and harvest stability ( ''high confidence'' ). Warmer and drier conditions have increased tree mortality and forest disturbances in many temperate and boreal biomes ( ''high confidence'' ), negatively impacting provisioning services ( ''medium confidence'' ). Ocean warming has decreased sustainable yields of some wild fish populations ( ''high confidence'' ) by 4.1% between 1930 and 2010. Ocean acidification and warming have already affected farmed aquatic species ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.3, Figure TS.6 FOOD-WATER) { 2.4.3, 2.4.4, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 4.3.1, 5.2.1, 5.4.1, 5.5.1, 5.6.1, 5.7.1, 5.8.1, 5.9.1, 9.8.2, 9.8.5, 11.3.4, 11.3.5, Box 11.3, 13.3.1, 13.5.1, 14.5.1, 14.5.4, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.3 CCP5.2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.5 CCP5.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.5 CCP6.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2.8] , CCB MOVING PLATE }

'''TS.B.3.2 Warming has altered the distribution, growing area suitability and timing of key biological events, such as flowering and insect emergence, impacting food quality and harvest stability (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' . There is ''high confidence'' that climate change is altering the distribution of cultivated and wild terrestrial, marine and freshwater species. At higher latitudes, warming has expanded the available area but has also altered phenology ( ''high confidence'' ), potentially causing plant–pollinator and pest mismatches ( ''medium confidence'' ). At low latitudes, temperatures have crossed upper tolerance thresholds, more frequently leading to heat stress and/or shifts in distribution and losses for crops, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture ( ''high confidence'' ). { 2.4.2, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 5.4.1, 5.7.4, 5.8.1, 5.12.3, 9.8.2, 12.3.1, 12.3.2, 12.3.6, 13.5.1, 13.5.1, 14.5.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.5 CCP5.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.5 CCP6.2.5] , CCB MOVING PLATE }

'''TS.B.3.3 Climate-related extremes have affected the productivity of all agricultural and fishery sectors, with negative consequences for food security and livelihoods (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' The frequency of sudden food production losses has increased since at least the mid-20th century on land and sea ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). The impacts of climate-related extremes on food security, nutrition and livelihoods are particularly acute and severe for people living in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, small islands, Central and South America and the Arctic and small-scale food producers globally ( ''high confidence'' ). Droughts induced by the 2015–2016 El Niño, partially attributable to human influences ( ''medium confidence'' ), caused acute food insecurity in various regions, including eastern and southern Africa and the Dry Corridor of Central America ( ''high confidence'' ). In the northeast Pacific, a 5-year warm period (2013 to 2017) impacted the migration, distribution and abundance of key fish resources ( ''high confidence'' ). Increasing variability in grazing systems has negatively affected animal fertility, mortality and herd recovery rates, reducing livestock keepers’ resilience ( ''medium confidence'' ). (Figure TS.6 FOOD-WATER) { 3.5.5, 4.3.1, 5.2.1, 5.4.1, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 5.8.1, 5.9.1, 5.12.1, 5.14.2, 5.14.6, 9.8.2, 9.8.5, 13.5.1, 14.5.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , CCB MOVING PLATE, WGI AR6 11.2–11.8 }

'''TS.B.3.4 Climate-related emerging food safety risks are increasing globally in agriculture and fisheries (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Higher temperatures and humidity caused by climate change increases toxigenic fungi on many food crops ( ''very high confidence'' ). Harmful algal blooms and water-borne diseases threaten food security and the economy and livelihoods of many coastal communities ( ''high confidence'' ). Increasing ocean warming and acidification are enhancing movement and bioaccumulation of toxins and contaminants into marine food webs ( ''medium confidence'' ) and with bio-magnification of persistent organic pollutants and methyl mercury already affecting fisheries ( ''medium confidence'' ). Indigenous Peoples and local communities, especially where food safety monitoring is underdeveloped, are among the most vulnerable to these risks, in particular in the Arctic ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.8 HEALTH) { 3.5.5, 5.8.1, 5.9.1, 5.11.1, 7.2.2, 7.2.4, 14.5.6, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2.8] , CCB ILLNESS }

'''TS.B.3.5 The impacts of climate change on food systems affect everyone, but some groups are more vulnerable.''' Women, the elderly and children in low-income households, Indigenous Peoples, minority groups, small-scale producers and fishing communities and people in high-risk regions more often experience malnutrition, livelihood loss and rising costs ( ''high confidence'' ). Increasing competition for critical resources, such as land, energy and water, can exacerbate the impacts of climate change on food security ( ''high confidence'' ). Examples include large-scale land deals, water use, dietary patterns, energy crops and use of feed crops. (Figure TS.10 COMPLEX RISK) { 2.6.5, 4.8.3, 5.4.2, 5.5.2, 5.9.2, 5.12.2, 5.12.3, 5.13.1, 5.13.3, 5.13.4; 6.3.4, 9.8.1, Box 9.5, 12.3.1, 12.3.2, 14.5.2, 14.5.4, 14.5.6, 14.5.7, 14.5.8, 14.5.11, Box 14.6, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.3 CCP5.2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.5 CCP5.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2.7] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2.8] }

<div id="Water" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="water-systems-and-water-security"></span>

=== Water systems and water security ===

<div id="h3-3-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

'''TS.B.4 Currently, roughly half of the world’s population are experiencing severe water scarcity for at least 1 month yr''' -1 '''due to climatic and other factors''' '''(''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''). Water insecurity is manifested through climate-induced water scarcity and hazards and is further exacerbated by inadequate water governance (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' '''''.''''' '''Extreme events and underlying vulnerabilities have intensified the societal impacts of droughts and floods, negatively impacted agriculture and energy production and increased the incidence of water-borne diseases. Economic and societal impacts of water insecurity are more pronounced in low-income countries than in middle- and high-income ones (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' (Figure TS.2, Figure TS.3, Figure TS.6 WATER-FOOD) { Table 2.2, Table 2.3, 2.3.3. 2.4.2, 2.4.4, 4.1.1, Box 4.1, 4.2.1, 4.2.2, 4.2.3, 4.2.4, 4.2.5, 4.2.6, 4.3.1, 4.3.2, 4.3.3, 4.3.4, 4.3.5, 4.3.6, 4.3.8, 4.4.4, 5.9.1, 5.12.2, 5.12.3, 6.2.2, 6.2.3, 7.2.2, 7.2.4, 7.2.5, 7.2.6, 7.2.7, 8.3.2, 8.3.3, 9.7.1, 9.9.2, Box 9.4, 10.4.1, 10.4.4, Box 10.4, 10.5.4, Boxes 11.1–11.6, Table 11.2, 11.3, 11.3.1, 11.3.2, 11.4, Table 11.4, 11.3.3, 11.5.2, Table 11.2a, 11.3.3.1, Box, 11.3, Box 11.4, 12.3, 12.3.1, 12.3.2, 12.3.6, 12.3.7, 12.4, Table 12.4, 12.5.3.1, Figure 12.7, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.10, Figure 12.13, Table SM12.6, 13.3.1, 13.5.1, 13.6.1, 13.8.1, 13.10.1, 14.5.1–4,, 14.5.6, 14.7, Box 14.7, 15.3.3, 15.3.4, 16.2.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.2.3 CCP1.2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP3.1.2 CCP3.1.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP3.2.1 CCP3.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.2 CCP5.2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.3 CCP5.2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.7 CCP5.2.7] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.1 CCP6.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.5 CCP6.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.2.3 CCP7.2.3] , CCB DISASTER, CCB ILLNESS, CCB EXTREMES }

'''TS.B.4.1 Climate change has intensified the global hydrological cycle, causing several societal impacts, which are felt disproportionately by vulnerable people (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Human-induced climate change has affected physical aspects of water security through increasing water scarcity and exposing more people to water-related extreme events like floods and droughts, thereby exacerbating existing water-related vulnerabilities caused by other socioeconomic factors ( ''high confidence'' ). Many of these changes in water availability and water-related hazards can be directly attributed to anthropogenic climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). Water insecurity disproportionately impacts the poor, women, children, Indigenous Peoples and the elderly in low-income countries ( ''high confidence'' ) and specific marginal geographies (e.g., small island states and mountain regions). Water insecurity can contribute to social unrest in regions where inequality is high and water governance and institutions are weak ( ''medium confidence'' ). (Figure TS.6 WATER-FOOD, Figure TS.7 VULNERABILITY) { 2.3.1, 2.3.3, 2.4.4, 4.1.1, 4.2.1, Box 4.1, 4.2.4, 4.3.6, 5.12.2, 5.12.3, 6.2.2, 6.2.3, 7.2.7, 9.7.1, 10.4.4, 12.5.3.1, 13.8.1, 15.3.3, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.2 CCP5.2.2] , CCB EXTREMES }

'''TS.B.4.2 Worldwide, people are increasingly experiencing unfamiliar precipitation patterns, including extreme precipitation events (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Nearly half a billion people now live in areas where the long-term average precipitation is now as high as was previously seen in only about 1 in 6 years ( ''medium confidence'' ). Approximately 163 million people now live in unfamiliarly dry areas ( ''medium confidence'' ) compared to 50 years ago ''.'' The intensity of heavy precipitation has increased in many regions since the 1950s ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Substantially more people (around 709 million) live in regions where annual maximum 1-d precipitation has increased than in regions where it has decreased (around 86 million) ( ''medium confidence'' ) since the 1950s. At the same time, more people (around 700 million) have been experiencing longer dry spells than shorter dry spells since the 1950s ( ''medium confidence'' ), leading to compound hazards related to both warming and precipitation extremes in most parts of the world ( ''medium confidence'' ). (Figure TS.6 WATER-FOOD) { 2.3.1 '', 4'' .2.2, 4.2.3, 4.2.6, 4.3.1, 4.3.4, 6.2.2, 9.5.2–6, 13.2, 13.10, CCB EXTREMES }

'''TS.B.4.3 Glaciers are melting at unprecedented rates, causing negative societal impacts among communities that depend on cryospheric water resources (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Over the last two decades, the global glacier mass loss rate has been the highest since the glacier mass balance measurements began a century ago ( ''high confidence'' ). Melting of glaciers, snow decline and thawing of permafrost have threatened the water and livelihood security of local and downstream communities through changes in hydrological regimes and increases in the potential of landslides and glacier lake outburst floods. Cryosphere changes have impacted cultural uses of water among vulnerable mountain and Arctic communities and Indigenous Peoples ( ''high confidence'' ), who have long experienced historical, socioeconomic and political marginalisation ( ''medium to high confidence'' ). Cryosphere change has affected ecosystems, water resources, livelihoods and cultural uses of water in all cryosphere-dependent regions across the world ( ''very high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.3) { 2.4.3, 2.6.5, 4.2.2, 4.3.8, 4.4.4, 6.2.2, 9.5.8, 10.5.4, 11.3.3, 10.4.4, Box 10.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.2 CCP5.2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.7 CCP5.2.7] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.5 CCP6.2.5] , 11.2.1, Table 11.2b, Table 11.9, 12.3.2, 12.3.7, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.13, Table SM12.6 }

'''TS.B.4.4 Impacts of droughts and floods have intensified due to extreme events and underlying societal vulnerabilities (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Anthropogenic climate change has led to increased likelihood, severity and societal impacts of droughts (primarily agricultural and hydrological droughts) in many regions ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Between 1970 and 2019, drought-related disaster events worldwide caused billions of dollars in economic damages ( ''medium confidence'' ). Drylands are particularly exposed to climate change related droughts ( ''high confidence'' ). Recent heavy rainfall events that have led to catastrophic flooding were made more likely by anthropogenic climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). Observed mortality and losses due to floods and droughts are much greater in regions with high vulnerability and vulnerable populations such as the poor, women, children, Indigenous Peoples and the elderly due to historical, political and socioeconomic inequities ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' { 4.2.4, 4.2.5, 4.3.1, 4.3.2, 6.2.2, 7.2.2, 7.2.4, 7.2.5, 7.2.6, 11.2.1, 11.2.a, 13.2.1, 14.5.3, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP3.1.2 CCP3.1.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP3.2.1 CCP3.2.1] , 8.3.2, 8.3.3, 9.9.2, Box 9.4, 15.3.3, 15.3.4, 16.2.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.6 CCP5.2.6] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.2.3 CCP7.2.3] , CCB DISASTER, CCB EXTREMES }

'''TS.B.4.5 Climate-induced changes in the hydrological cycle have negatively impacted freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems.''' Climate change and changes in land use and water pollution are key drivers of ecosystem loss and degradation ( ''high confidence'' ), with negative impacts observed on culturally significant terrestrial and freshwater species and ecosystems in the Arctic, mountain regions and other biodiversity hotspots ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Climate trends and extreme events have had major impacts on many natural systems ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' For example, periodic droughts in parts of the Amazon since the 1990s, partly attributed to climate change, resulted in high tree mortality rates and basin-wide reductions in forest productivity, momentarily turning Amazon forests from a carbon sink into a net carbon source ( ''high confidence'' ). Fire risks have increased due to heat and drought conditions in many parts of the world ( ''medium confidence'' ). Increased precipitation has resulted in range shifts of species in some regions ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' (Figure TS.10 COMPLEX RISK) { 2.4.2, 2.4.3, 2.4.4; Table 2.2; Table 2.3, Table SM2.1, 4.3.3, 4.3.4, 4.3.5, 4.3.8, 9.6.1, 11.3.1, 11.3.2, Table 11.2b, Table 11.4, Table 11.6, Table 11.9, 12.3, 12.4, Figure 12.7, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.10, 13.3.1, 14.5.1, 14.5.2, 14.5.3, Box 14.7, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.2.3 CCP1.2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.3 CCP5.2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.1 CCP6.2.1] }

'''TS.B.4.6 Hydrological cycle changes have impacted food and energy production and increased the incidence of water-borne diseases.''' Climate-induced trends and extremes in the water cycle have impacted agricultural production positively and negatively, with negative impacts outweighing the positive ones ( ''high confidence'' ). Droughts, floods and rainfall variability have contributed to reduced food availability and increased food prices, threatening food and nutrition security, and the livelihoods of millions globally ( ''high confidence'' ), with the poor in parts of Asia, Africa and South and Central America being disproportionately affected ( ''high confidence'' ). Drought years have reduced thermoelectric and hydropower production by around 4–5% compared to long-term average production since the 1980s ( ''medium confidence'' ), reducing economic growth in Africa and with billions in US dollars of existing and planned hydropower infrastructure assets in mountain regions worldwide and in Africa exposed to increasing hazards ( ''high confidence'' ). Changes in temperature, precipitation and water-related disasters are linked to increased incidences of water-borne diseases such as cholera, especially in regions with limited access to safe water, sanitation and hygiene infrastructure ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.3.1, 4.3.2, 4.3.3, 4.3.4, 4.3.5,4.3.6, 4.3.8, 5.9.1, 7.2.2, 9.7.1, Box 9.4, Box 9.5, 9.8.2, 9.10.2, 10.4.1, 11.3.3, Box 11.3, 11.4, 11.5.2, Table 11.2, Boxes 11.1–11.6, 13.2.1, 13.5.1, 13.6.1, 13.7.1, 14.5.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.2 CCP5.2.2] }

<div id="Health" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="health-and-well-being"></span>

=== Health and well-being ===

<div id="h3-4-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

'''TS.B.5 Climate change has already harmed human physical and mental health (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''). In all regions, health impacts often undermine efforts for inclusive development. Women, children, the elderly, Indigenous People, low-income households and socially marginalised groups within cities, settlements, regions and countries are the most vulnerable (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' (Figure TS.7 VULNERABILITY, Figure TS.8 HEALTH) { 2.4.2, 3.4.2, 3.5.3, 3.5.5, 3.5.6, 4.2.5, 4.3.3, Table 4.3, 5.5.2, 5.11.1, 5.12.3, Box 5.10, 7.2.1, 7.2.2, 7.2.3, 7.2.4, 7.2.5, 7.4.2, Box 7.1, Box 7.3, 8.2.1, 8.3.2, 8.3.4, Box 8.6, 9.1.5, 9.8.1, 9.10.1, 9.10.2, Figure 9.34, Figure 9.33, Box 9.1, 10.4.7, 11.3.6, Box 11.1, Table 11.10, 12.3.1, 12.3.2, 12.3.4, 12.3.5, 12.3.6, 12.3.7, 12.3.7, 12.3.8, Figure 12.4, Figure 12.6, Table 12.1, Table 12.2, Table 12.9, Table 12.11, 13.7.1, Figure 13.24, 14.4, 14.5.2, 14.5.4, 14.5.6, 14.5.7, 14.5.8, Box 14.2, Figure 14.8, 15.3.4, 16.2.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.2 CCP2.2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.1 CCP5.1] , Table [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.1 CCP5.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.3 CCP5.2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.6 CCP6.2.6] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.3 CCP6.3] , CCB DISASTER, Table CCB DISASTER 4.1,CCB HEALTH, CCB ILLNESS, CCB MOVING PLATE, CCB SLR, CWGB URBAN }

'''TS.B.5.1 Observed mortality from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for countries ranked as highly vulnerable compared to less vulnerable countries in the last decade (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' While an increase in drought has been observed in almost all continents to different extents, it is particularly the most vulnerable regions where such droughts result in relatively high mortality ( ''high confidence'' ). Between 1970 and 2019, 7% of all disaster events worldwide were drought related, yet they contributed to 34% of disaster-related deaths, mostly in Africa. (Figure TS.7 VULNERABILITY) { 4.2.5, Table 4.3, 7.2.1, 7.2.3, 7.2.4, 8.3.2, Box 9.1, 9.10.2, 10.4.7, 12.3.1, 12.3.6, 16.2.3, Table [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.1 CCP5.1] , CCB DISASTER, Table CCB DISASTER 4.1, CCB ILLNESS }

'''TS.B.5.2 Mental health challenges increase with warming temperatures (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), trauma associated with extreme weather (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''') and loss of livelihoods and culture (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' . Distress sufficient to impair mental health has been caused by climate-related ecological grief associated with environmental change (e.g., solastalgia) or extreme weather and climate events ( ''very high confidence'' ), vicarious experience or anticipation of climate events ( ''medium confidence'' ) and climate-related loss of livelihoods and food insecurity ( ''very high confidence'' ). Vulnerability to mental health effects of climate change varies by region and population, with evidence that Indigenous Peoples, agricultural communities, first responders, women and members of minority groups experience greater impacts ( ''high confidence'' ). { 7.2.5, 7.4.2, 8.3.4, Box 8.6, 9.10.2, 11.3.6, 13.7.1, 14.5.6, Figure 14.8, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.5 CCP5.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.6 CCP6.2.6] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.3 CCP6.3] }

'''TS.B.5.3 Increasing temperatures and heatwaves have increased mortality and morbidity (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''), with impacts that vary by age, gender, urbanisation and socioeconomic factors (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' A significant proportion of warm-season heat-related mortality in temperate regions is attributed to observed anthropogenic climate change ( ''medium confidence'' ), with fewer data available for tropical regions in Africa ( ''high confidence'' ). For some heatwave events over the last two decades, associated health impacts have been partially attributed to observed climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). Highly vulnerable groups experiencing health impacts from heat stress include anyone working outdoors and, especially, those doing outdoor manual labour (e.g., construction work, farming). Potential hours of work lost due to heat have increased significantly over the past two decades ( ''high confidence'' ). Some regions are already experiencing heat stress conditions at or approaching the upper limits of labour productivity ( ''high confidence'' ). { 7.2.1, 7.2.4 8.2.1, 9.1.5, 9.10.1, Figure 9.34, 10.4.7, 11.3.6.1, 12.3.1, 12.3.7, 12.3.8, Figure 12.6, Table 12.2, 13.7.1, 14.5.6, 14.5.8, 16.2.3, CWGB URBAN }

'''TS.B.5.4 Climate change has contributed to malnutrition in all its forms in many regions, including undernutrition, overnutrition and obesity, and to disease susceptibility (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), especially for women, pregnant women, children, low-income households, Indigenous Peoples, minority groups and small-scale producers (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' . Extreme climate events have been key drivers in rising undernutrition of millions of people, primarily in Africa and Central America ( ''high confidence'' ). For example, anthropogenic warming contributed to climate extremes induced by the 2015–2016 El Niño, which resulted in severe droughts, leading to an additional 5.9 million children in 51 countries becoming underweight ( ''high confidence'' ). Undernutrition can in turn increase susceptibility to other health problems, including mental health problems, and impair cognitive and work performance, with resulting economic impacts ( ''very high confidence'' ). Children and pregnant women experience disproportionate adverse health and nutrition impacts ( ''high confidence'' ). { 5.12.3, 7.2.4, 7.2.5, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.3 CCP5.2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.3 CCP5.2.3.1] , 14.4, 14.5.2, 14.5.4, 14.5.6, 14.5.7, Figure 14.8, 9.8.1, 9.10.2, 10.4.7, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.6 CCP6.2.6] , CCB HEALTH, CCB ILLNESS, CCB MOVING PLATE }

'''TS.B.5.5 Climate-related food safety risks have increased globally (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' These risks include ''Salmonella'' , ''Campylobacter'' and ''Cryptosporidium'' infections ( ''medium confidence'' ) mycotoxins associated with cancer and stunting in children ( ''high confidence'' ) and seafood contamination with marine toxins and pathogens ( ''high confidence'' ). Climate-related food-borne disease risks vary temporally and are influenced, in part, by food availability, accessibility, preparation and preferences ( ''medium confidence'' ), as well as adequate food safety monitoring ( ''high confidence'' ). { 3.4.2, 3.5.3, 3.5.5, 3.5.6, 5.11.1, Box 5.10, 7.2.1, 7.2.2, 13.7.1, Figure 13.24, 14.5.6, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.6 CCP6.2.6] , CCB SLR }

'''TS.B.5.6 Higher temperatures combined with land use/land cover change are making more areas suitable for the transmission of vector-borne diseases (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' More extreme weather events have contributed to vector-borne disease outbreaks in humans through direct effects on pathogens and vectors and indirect effects on human behaviour and emergency response destabilisation ( ''medium confidence'' ). Climate change and variability are facilitating the spread of chikungunya virus in North, Central and South America, Europe and Asia ( ''medium to high confidence'' ); tick-borne encephalitis in Europe ( ''medium confidence'' ); Rift Valley fever in Africa; West Nile fever in southeastern Europe, western Asia, the Canadian prairies and parts of the USA ( ''medium confidence'' ); Lyme disease vectors in North America ( ''high confidence'' ) and Europe ( ''medium confidence'' ); malaria in eastern and southern Africa ( ''high confidence'' ); and dengue globally ( ''high confidence'' ). For example, in Central and South America, the reproduction potential for the transmission of dengue increased between 17% and 80% for the period 1950–1954 to 2016–2021, depending on the sub-region, as a result of changes in temperature and precipitation ( ''high confidence'' ). { 2.4.2, 4.3.3, 7.2.1, 7.2.2, 9.10.2, 10.4.7, Table 11.10, 12.3.1, 12.3.2, 12.3.3, 12.3.5, 12.3.6, Figure 12.4, Table 12.9, Table 12.11, Table 12.1, 13.7.1, Figure 13.24, 14.5.6, 15.3.4, 16.2.3, CCB ILLNESS }

'''TS.B.5.7 Higher temperatures (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''), heavy rainfall events (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''') and flooding (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''') are associated with increased water-borne diseases,''' particularly diarrhoeal diseases, including cholera ( ''very high confidence'' ) and other gastrointestinal infections ( ''high confidence'' ) in high-, middle- and low-income countries. Water insecurity and inadequate water, sanitation and hygiene increase disease risk ( ''high confidence'' ), stress and adverse mental health ( ''limited evidence, medium agreement'' ), food insecurity and adverse nutritional outcomes and poor cognitive and birth outcomes ( ''limited evidence, medium agreement'' ). { 4.3.3, 7.2.2, Box 7.3, 9.10.1, Figure 9.33, 10.4.7, 11.3.6, 12.3.4, 12.3.5, 13.7.1, Figure 13.24, 14.5.6, 16.2.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.6 CCP6.2.6] , CCB ILLNESS, CWGB URBAN }

'''TS.B.5.8 Climate change driven range shifts of wildlife, exploitation of wildlife and loss of wildlife habitat quality have increased opportunities for pathogens to spread from wildlife to human populations, which has resulted in increased emergence of zoonotic disease epidemics and pandemics (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Zoonoses that have been historically rare or never documented in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions of Europe, Asia and North America are emerging as a result of climate-induced environmental change (e.g., anthrax), spreading polewards and increasing in incidence (e.g., tularemia) ( ''very high confidence'' ). { 2.4.2, 5.5.2, 7.2.2, Box 7.1, 10.4.7, 12.3.1, 12.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.2 CCP2.2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.6 CCP6.2.6] , CCB ILLNESS }

'''TS.B.5.9 Several chronic, non-communicable respiratory diseases are climate-sensitive based on their exposure pathways (e.g., heat, cold, dust, small particulates, ozone, fire smoke and allergens) (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), although climate change is not the dominant driver in all cases.''' Exposure to wildfires and associated smoke has increased in several regions ( ''very high confidence'' ) ''.'' The 2019–2020 southeastern Australian wildfires resulted in the deaths of 33 people, a further 429 deaths and 3230 hospitalisations due to cardiovascular or respiratory conditions and $1.95 billion in health costs. Spring pollen season start dates in northern mid-latitudes are occurring earlier due to climate change, increasing the risks of allergic respiratory diseases ( ''high confidence'' ). { 2.4.4, 7.2.3, 14.5.6, Box 14.2, 11.3.6, Box 11.1, 12.3.3, 12.3.4, 12.3.6, 12.3.7, 13.7.1 }

<div id="Migration" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="migration-and-displacement"></span>

=== Migration and displacement ===

<div id="h3-5-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

'''TS.B.6 Since AR5 there is increased evidence that climate''' '''hazards''' '''associated with extreme events and variability act as direct drivers of involuntary migration and displacement and as indirect drivers through deteriorating climate-sensitive livelih''' '''oods (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Most climate-related displace''' '''ment a''' '''nd migration occur within national boundaries, with inter''' '''nati''' '''onal movements occurring primarily between countries wi''' '''th contiguous borders (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' '''''.''''' '''Since 2008, an annual''' '''average''' '''of over 20 million people have been internally displa''' '''ced''' '''annually by weather-related extreme events, with storms and floods being the most common (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). {''' 1.1.1, 1.3, 7.2.6, 9.9.2, Box 9.8, Box 10.2, 12.3, 13.8.1, 15.3.4, 16.2.3, 18.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP3.2 CCP3.2] , CCB MIGRATE '''}'''

'''TS.B.6.1 The most common climatic drivers for migration and displacement are drought, tropical storms and hurricanes, heavy rains and floods (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Extreme climate events act as both direct drivers (e.g., destruction of homes by tropical cyclones) and indirect drivers (e.g., rural income losses during prolonged droughts) of involuntary migration and displacement ( ''very high confidence'' ). The largest absolute number of people displaced by extreme weather each year occurs in Asia (South, Southeast and East), followed by sub-Saharan Africa, but small island states in the Caribbean and South Pacific are disproportionately affected relative to their small population size ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.3.7, 7.2.6, 9.9.2, Box 9.8, 12.3.1, 12.3.2, 12.3.3, 12.3.5, 12.5.8, 15.3.4, 16.2.3, CCB MIGRATE }

'''TS.B.6.2 The impacts of climatic drivers on migration are highly context-specific and interact with social, political, geopolitical and economic drivers (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Specific climate events and conditions cause migration to increase, decrease or flow in new directions ( ''high confidence'' ). One of the main pathways for climate-induced migration is through deteriorating economic conditions and livelihoods ( ''high confidence'' ). Climate change has influenced changes in temporary, seasonal or permanent migration, often rural to urban or rural to rural, that is associated with labour diversification as a risk-reduction strategy in Central America, Africa, South Asia and Mexico ( ''high confidence'' ). This movement is often followed by remittances ( ''medium confidence'' ). However, the same economic losses can also undermine household resources and savings, limiting mobility and compounding people’s exposure and vulnerability ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.3.7, 5.5.4, 7.2.6, 8.2.1, Box 9.8, 12.3.1, 12.3.2, 12.3.3, 12.3.5, 12.5.8, 13.8.1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.5 CCP5.2.5] , CCB MIGRATE }

'''TS.B.6.3 Outcomes of climate-related migration are highly variable, with socioeconomic factors and household resources affecting migration success (''' '''''high confidenc''''' '''e).''' The more agency migrants have (i.e., the degree of voluntarity and freedom of movement), the greater the potential benefits for sending and receiving areas ( ''high agreement, medium evidence'' ) ''.'' Displacement or low-agency migration is associated with poor health, well-being and socioeconomic outcomes for migrants and yields fewer benefits to sending or receiving communities ( ''high agreement, medium evidence'' ). Involuntary migration occurs when adaptation alternatives are exhausted or not viable and reflects non-climatic factors that constrain adaptive capacity and create high levels of exposure and vulnerability ( ''high confidence'' ). These outcomes are also shaped by policy and planning decisions at regional, national and local scales that relate to housing, infrastructure, water provisioning, schools and healthcare to support the integration of migrants into receiving communities ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.3.7, 5.5.3, 5.5.4, 5.10.1, 5.12.2, 7.2.6, 7.2.6, 8.2.1, 9.8.3, Box 8.1, 10.3, Box 12.2, CCB MIGRATE, CCB SLR }

'''TS.B.6.4 Immobility in the context of climatic risk reflects both vulnerability and lack of agency, but is also a deliberate choice (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Deliberate or voluntary, immobility represents an assertion of the importance of culture, livelihood and sense of place. Planned relocations by governments of settlements and populations exposed to climatic hazards are not presently commonplace, although the need is expected to grow. Existing examples of relocations of Indigenous Peoples in coastal Alaska and villages in the Solomon Islands and Fiji suggest that relocated people can experience significant financial and emotional distress as cultural and spiritual bonds to place and livelihoods are disrupted ( ''high confidence'' ). { 7.2.6, 13.8.1, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.5 CCP6.2.5] , CCB MIGRATE }

<div id="Human" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="human-vulnerability"></span>

=== Human vulnerability ===

<div id="h3-6-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

'''TS.B.7 Vulnerability significantly determines how climate change impacts are being experienced by societies and communities. Vulnerability to climate change is a multi-dimensional, dynamic phenomenon shaped by intersecting historical and contemporary political, economic and cultural processes of marginalisation (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Societies with high levels of inequity are less resilient to climate change (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' (Figure TS.7 VULNERABILITY) { 2.6.5, 2.6.7, 5.12.3, 5.13.4, 7.1, Box 6.6, 6.4.3.5, 8.2.1, 8.2.2, 8.3.2, 8.3.3, 8.3.4, 13.8.2, 9.8.2, 9.11.4, Box 9.1, 10.3.3., 12.1.1, 12.2, 12.3, 12.5.5, 12.5.7, Figure 12.2, 14.4, 16.5.2, CCB COVID, CCB GENDER, CCB ILLNESS }

'''TS.B.7.1 About 3.3 billion people are living in countries with high human vulnerability to climate change (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Approximately 1.8 billion people reside in regions classified as having low vulnerability. Global concentrations of high vulnerability are emerging in transboundary areas encompassing more than one country as a result of interlinked issues concerning health, poverty, migration, conflict, gender inequality, inequity, education, high debt, weak institutions, lack of governance capacities and infrastructure. Complex human vulnerability patterns are shaped by past developments, such as colonialism and its ongoing legacy ( ''high confidence'' ), are worsened by compounding and cascading risks ( ''high confidence'' ) and are socially differentiated. For example, low-income, young, poor and female-headed households face greater livelihood risks from climate hazards ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.7 VULNERABILITY) { 4.3.1, 5.5.2, 5.12.3, 5.13.3, Box 5.13, 8.3.2, 8.4.5, Box 9.1, 9.4.1, 9.8.1, 9.11.4, 10.3.3, 12.2, 12.3, 12.5.5, 12.5.7, Figure 12.2, 14.4 }

'''TS.B.7.2 Climate change is impacting Indigenous Peoples’ ways of life (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''), cultural and linguistic diversity (''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''), food security (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''') and health and well-being (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge can contribute to reducing the vulnerability of communities to climate change ( ''medium to high confidence'' ). Supporting Indigenous self-determination, recognising Indigenous Peoples’ rights and supporting Indigenous knowledge-based adaptation are critical to reducing climate change risks and effective adaptation ( ''very high confidence'' ). { 1.3.2, 2.6.5, 4.3.8, 4.6.9, 4.8.4, 5.5.2, 5.8.2, 5.10.2, 5.14.2, 6.4.7, Box 8.7, Box 9.2, 11.4.1, 11.4.2, Table 11.10, Table 11.11, Table 11.12, 12.3, 12.4, Figure 12.9, 13.8.1, 13.8.2, Box.14.1, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.2 CCP5.2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.5 CCP5.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , Box [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.3 CCP6.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.4 CCP6.4] }

'''TS.B.7.3 The intersection of gender with race, class, ethnicity, sexuality, Indigenous identity, age, disability, income, migrant status and geographical location often compounds vulnerability to climate change impacts (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''), exacerbates inequity and creates further injustice (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' There is evidence that present adaptation strategies do not sufficiently include poverty reduction and the underlying social determinants of human vulnerability such as gender, ethnicity and governance ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' { 1.2.1, 1.4.1, 4.8.3, 4.8.5, 4.8.6, 4.6.3, 6.1.5, 6.3, 6.4, Box 9.1, 9.4.1, Box 9.8, 11.7.2, 18.4, 18.5, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.7 CCP5.2.7] , CCB GENDER }

'''TS.B.7.4 Climate variability and extremes are associated with more prolonged conflict through food price spikes, food and water insecurity, loss of income and loss of livelihoods (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), with more consistent evidence for low-intensity organised violence within countries than for major or international armed conflict (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Compared to other socioeconomic factors, the influence of climate on conflict has been assessed as being relatively weak ( ''high confidence'' ) but is exacerbated by insecure land tenure, weather-sensitive economic activities, weak institutions and fragile governance, poverty and inequality ( ''medium confidence'' ). The literature also suggests a larger climate-related influence on the dynamics of conflict than on the likelihood of initial conflict outbreak ( ''low confidence'' ). There is insufficient evidence at present to attribute armed conflict to human-induced climate change. { 4.1, 4.3.1, 4.3.6, 5.8.3, 5.12.4, Box 5.9, Box 6.3; Box 9.9; 7.2.7, 12.5.8, 12.7.4, 16.2.3 }

<div id="Cities," class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="cities-settlements-and-infrastructure"></span>

=== Cities, settlements and infrastructure ===

<div id="h3-7-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

'''TS.B.8 Cities and settlements (particularly unplanned and informal settlements and in coastal and mountain regions) have continued to grow at rapid rates and remain crucial both as concentrated sites of increased exposure to risk and increasing vulnerability and as sites of action on climate change (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). More people and key assets are exposed to climate-induced impacts, and loss and damage in cities, settlements and key infrastructure since AR5 (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Sea level rise, heatwaves, droughts, changes in runoff, floods, wildfires and permafrost thaw cause disruptions of key infrastructure and services such as energy supply and transmission, communications, food and water supply and transport systems in and between urban and peri-urban areas (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). The most rapid growth in urban vulnerability and exposure has been in cities and settlements where adaptive capacity is limited, including informal settlements in low- and middle-income communities and in smaller and medium-sized urban communities (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' (Figure TS.9 URBAN) { 4.3.4, 8.2, 8.3, 6.1.4, Box 6.1, 9.9.1, 9.9.2, 10.4.6, 11.6, Table 11.14, 12.6.1, 13.6.1, 14.5.5, 16.2, 16.5, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.5 CCP5.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.6 CCP5.2.6] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.7 CCP5.2.7] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.3 CCP6.2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.4 CCP6.2.4] , Box [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.1 CCP6.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.5 CCP6.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.3.1 CCP6.3.1] , Table [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.5 CCP6.5] , Table CCP6.6 }

'''TS.B.8.1 Globally, urban populations grew by more than 397 million people between 2015 and 2020, with more than 90% of this growth taking place in less developed regions. The most rapid growth in urban vulnerability has been in unplanned and informal settlements and in smaller to medium urban centres in low- and middle-income nations where adaptive capacity is limited (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Since AR5, observed impacts of climate change on cities, peri-urban areas and settlements have extended from direct, climate-driven impacts to compound, cascading and systemic impacts ( ''high confidence'' ). Patterns of urban growth, inequity, poverty, informality and precariousness in housing are uneven and shape cities in key regions, such as within Africa and Asia. In sub-Saharan Africa, about 60% of the urban population lives in informal settlements, while Asia is home to the largest share of people—529 million—living in informal settlements. The high degree of informality limits adaptation and increases differential vulnerability to climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). Globally, exposure to climate-driven impacts such as heatwaves, extreme precipitation and storms in combination with rapid urbanisation and lack of climate-sensitive planning, along with continuing threats from urban heat islands, is increasing the vulnerability of marginalised urban populations and key infrastructure to climate change, for example, more frequent and/or extreme rainfall and drought stress existing design and capacity of current urban water systems and heighten urban and peri-urban water insecurity ( ''high confidence'' ). COVID-19 has had a substantial urban impact and generated new climate-vulnerable populations ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.9 URBAN) { 4.3.4, 6.1.4 6.2, 6.2.2, 9.9.1, 9.9.3, 10.4.6, 12.4, 12.6.1, 14.5.5, 14.5.6, 17.2.1, CCB COVID }

'''TS.B.8.2 People, livelihoods, ecosystems, buildings and infrastructure within many coastal cities and settlements are already experiencing severe compounding impacts, including from sea level rise and climate variability (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Coastal cities are disproportionately affected by interacting, cascading and climate-compounding climate- and ocean-driven impacts, in part because of the exposure of multiple assets, economic activities and large populations concentrated in narrow coastal zones ( ''high confidence'' ), with about a tenth of the world’s population and physical assets in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (less than 10 m above sea level). Early impacts of accelerating sea level rise have been detected at sheltered or subsiding coasts, manifesting as nuisance and chronic flooding at high tides, water-table salinisation, ecosystem and agricultural transitions, increased erosion and coastal flood damage ( ''medium confidence'' ). Coastal settlements with high inequality, for example a high proportion of informal settlements, as well as deltaic cities prone to land subsidence (e.g., Bangkok, Jakarta, Lagos, New Orleans, Mississippi, Nile, Ganges-Brahmaputra deltas) and small island states are highly vulnerable and have experienced impacts from severe storms and floods in addition to, or in combination with, those from accelerating sea level rise ( ''high confidence'' ). Currently, coastal cities already dependent on extensive protective works face the prospects of significantly increasing costs to maintain current protection levels, especially if the local sea level rises to the point that financial and technical limits are reached; systemic changes, such as relocation of millions of people, will be necessary ( ''medium confidence'' ). (Figure TS.9 URBAN) { 4.3.4, Box 6.3, 6.3.1, 6.4.5, Box 6.4, 6.4.3, 6.4.5, Figure 6.5, Box 9.8, 10.3.7, 11.7.2, 12.1.1, 13.8.1.1, 15.7, CWGB URBAN }

'''TS.B.8.3 Climate impacts on urban population health, livelihoods and well-being are felt disproportionately, with the most economically and socially marginalised being most affected (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Vulnerabilities vary by location and are shaped by intersecting processes of marginalization, including gender, class, race, income, ethnic origin, age, level of ability, sexuality and non-conforming gender orientation ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.9 URBAN) { 4.3.4, Box 6.3, 6.3.1, 6.4.5, Box 6.4, 6.4.3, 6.4.5, Figure 6.5, Box 9.8, 10.3.7, 11.7.2, 12.1.1, 13.8.1.1, 15.7, CWGB URBAN }

'''TS.B.8.4 Infrastructure systems provide critical services to individuals, society and the economy in both urban and rural areas; their availability and reliability directly or indirectly influence the attainment of all SDGs (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Due to the connectivity of infrastructure systems, climate impacts, such as with thawing permafrost or severe storms affecting energy and transport networks, can propagate outside the reach of the hazard footprint and cause larger impacts and widespread regional disruption ( ''high confidence'' ). Interdependencies between infrastructure systems have created new pathways for compounding climate risk, which has been accelerated by trends in information and communication technologies, increased reliance on energy, and complex (often global) supply chains ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.10 COMPLEX RISK) { 2.3, 4.6.2, 6.2, 6.3, Box 6.2, 9.7.3, 9.9.3, 9.9.5, 10.4.6, 10.5, 10.6, 11.3.3, 11.3.5, 11.5.1, Box 11.4, 12.3, 12.5, 13.2, 13.6.1, 13.10.2, Box 14.5, 14.5.5, 15.3, 16.5.2.3, 16.5.2.4, 16.5.3, 16.5.4, 17.2, 17.5, 18.3, 18.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP4.1 CCP4.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.3 CCP5.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] }

<div id="Economic" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="economic-sectors"></span>

=== Economic sectors ===

<div id="h3-8-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

'''TS.B.9 The effects of climate change impacts have been observed across economic sectors, although the magnitude of the damage varies by sector and by region (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Recent extreme weather and climate-induced events have been associated with large costs through damaged property, infrastructure and supply chain disruptions, although development patterns have driven much of these increases (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Adverse impacts on economic growth have been identified from extreme weather events (''' '''''high''''' '''confidence) with large effects in developing countries (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Widespread climate impacts have undermined economic livelihoods, especially among vulnerable populations (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Climate impacts and projected risks have been insufficiently internalised into private- and public-sector planning and budgeting practices and adaptation finance (''' '''''medium confide''''' '''nce).''' (Figure TS.3) { 3.5.5, 4.3.1, 4.3.2, 4.3.4, 6.2.4, 6.4.5, Table 6.11, 8.3.3, 8.3.5, 9.11.1, 9.11.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.7 CCP5.2.7] , Box 10.7, 11.5.1, 13.10.1, 13.11.1, Box 14.5, Box 14.6, 14.5.8, 15.3.4, 16.2.3, CCB FINANCE, CWGB ECONOMIC }

'''TS.B.9.1 Economic losses of climate change arise from adverse impacts on inputs, such as crop yields (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''), water availability (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''') and outdoor labour productivity due to heat stress (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Greater economic losses are observed for sectors with high direct climate exposure, including regional losses to agriculture, forestry, fisheries, energy and tourism ( ''high confidence'' ). Many industrial and service sectors are indirectly affected through supply disruptions, especially during and following extreme events ( ''high confidence'' ). Costs are also incurred from adaptation, disaster spending, recovery and rebuilding of infrastructure ( ''high confidence'' ). Estimates of the global effects of climate change on aggregate measures of economic performance and gross domestic product (GDP) range from negative to positive, in part due to uncertainty in how weather variability and climate impacts manifest in GDP ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Climate change is estimated to have slowed trends of decreasing economic inequality between developed and developing countries ( ''low confidence'' ), with particularly negative effects for Africa ( ''medium confidence'' ). { 4.2.2, 4.3.1, 4.3.2, 4.7.5, 9.6.3, 9.11.1,, 11.3.4 11.5.2, Box 11.1, 13.6.1, 14.5.1, 14.5.2, 14.5.3, 15.3.3, 15.3.4, 14.5.8, Box 14.6, Box 14.7, 16.2.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP4.4 CCP4.4] , CCP4.5, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.5 CCP5.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.5 CCP6.2.5] }

'''TS.B.9.2 A growing range of economic and non-economic losses has been detected and attributed to climate extremes and slow-onset events under observed increases in global temperatures in both low- and high-income countries (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, droughts and severe fluvial floods, have reduced economic growth in the short term ( ''high confidence'' ) and will continue to reduce it in the coming decades ( ''medium confidence'' ) in both developing and industrialised countries. Patterns of development have augmented the exposure of more assets to extreme hazards, increasing the magnitude of the losses ( ''high confidence'' ). Small Island Developing States have reported economic losses and a wide range of damage from tropical cyclones and increases in sea level rise ( ''high confidence'' ). Wildfires partly attributed to climate change have caused substantial economic damage in recent years in North America, Australia and the Arctic ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.2.4, 4.2.5, 4.7.5, 8.2, 8.3.4, 8.4.1, 8.4.5, Box 8.5, 9.11.1, Box 10.7, Box 11.1, 11.5.2, Table 11.13, 13.10.1, Box 14.6, 15.7, 15.8, 16.2.3, 16.5.2, CCB DISASTER, CWGB ECONOMIC }

'''TS.B.9.3 Economic livelihoods that are more climate sensitive have been disproportionately degraded by climate change (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Climate-sensitive livelihoods are more concentrated in regions that have higher socioeconomic vulnerabilities and lower adaptive capacities, exacerbating existing inequalities ( ''medium confidence'' ). Extreme events have also had more pronounced adverse effects in poorer regions and on more vulnerable populations ( ''medium confidence'' ). These greater economic effects have further reduced the ability of these populations to adapt to existing impacts ( ''medium confidence'' ). Within populations, the poor, women, children, elderly and Indigenous populations have been especially vulnerable due to a combination of factors, including gendered divisions of paid and/or unpaid labour ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.3.1, 4.3.8, 8.3.5, 9.1.1, 13.8.1, Box 14.6, 16.2.3, CCB GENDER, CWGB ECONOMIC }

'''TS.B.9.4 Current planning and budgeting practices have given insufficient consideration to climate impacts and projected risks, placing more assets and people in regions with current and projected climate hazards (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Existing adaptation has prevented greater economic losses ( ''medium confidence'' ), yet adaptation gaps remain due to limited financial resources, including gaps in international adaptation finance and competing priorities in budget allocations ( ''medium confidence'' ). Insufficient consideration of these impacts, however, has placed more assets in areas that are highly exposed to climate hazards ( ''medium confidence'' ). { 4.7.1, 6.4.5, Box 8.3, 9.4.1, 10.5, 10.6, 11.8.1, 13.11.1, Box 14.6, 15.3.3, 16.4.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.7 CCP5.2.7] , CCB FINANCE }

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