Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-13 (section)

=== 13.2.2 National Strategies and Nationally Determined Contributions ===

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National climate strategies, which are often formulated through executive action, contribute to climate governance in several ways. Strategies enable discussion of low-emissions pathways while accounting for uncertainty, national circumstances and socio-economic objectives ( [[#Falduto--2020|Falduto and Rocha 2020]] ).

They frequently set out long term emission goals and possible trajectories over time, with analysis of technological and economic factors ( [[#Levin--2018|Levin et al. 2018]] ; [[#WRI--2020|WRI 2020]] ). This can include quantitative modelling of low-emissions transitions and their economic effects to inform policymakers and stakeholders of potential outcomes ( [[#Waisman--2019|Waisman et al. 2019]] ; [[#Weitzel--2019|Weitzel et al. 2019]] ). Scenario analysis can be used to explore how to make strategies more robust in the face of uncertainty ( [[#Sato--2019|Sato and Altamirano 2019]] ). Strategies and their regular revision can support long-term structural change by stimulating deliberation and learning ( [[#Voß--2009|Voß et al. 2009]] ), and to make the link between mitigation and adaptation objectives and actions ( [[#Watkiss--2019|Watkiss and Klein 2019]] ; [[#Hans--2020|Hans et al. 2020]] ). As part of the Paris Agreement process, several countries have prepared and submitted long-term low-emissions development strategies ( [[#Levin--2018|Levin et al. 2018]] ), while others have different forms of national climate change strategies independently of the UNFCCC process. Strategies set over time by the European Union are discussed in Box 13.1.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) prepared under the Paris Agreement may be informed by national strategies ( [[#Rocha--2019|Rocha and Falduto 2019]] ). But the process of preparing NDCs can itself raise political awareness, encourage institutional innovation and coordination, and engage stakeholders ( [[#Röser--2020|Röser et al. 2020]] ). Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) illustrate a diversity of approaches: direct mitigation targets, strategies, plans and actions for low-GHG emission development, or the pursuit of mitigation co-benefits resulting from economic diversification plans and/or adaptation actions ( [[#UNFCCC%20Secretariat--2021|UNFCCC Secretariat 2021]] ). [[#_idTextAnchor048|Figure 13.2]] shows that the prevalence of emission targets increased across all regions between 2010 and 2020, the period during which the Paris Agreement was reached.

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'''Figure 13.2 | Prevalence of targets by emissions and number of countries across region.''' '''Top:''' Shares of global GHG emissions under national climate emission targets – in 2010, 2015 and 2020. Emissions data used are for 2019, since emissions shares across regions deviated from past patterns in 2020 due to COVID. '''Bottom:''' Number of countries with national climate emission targets – in 2010, 2015, and 2020. Emissions reductions targets were taken into account as a legislative target when they were defined in a law or as part of a country’s submission under the Kyoto Protocol, or as an executive target when they were included in a national policy or official submissions under the UNFCCC. Targets were included if they were economy wide or included at least the energy sector. The proportion of national emissions covered are scaled to reflect coverage and whether targets are in GHG or CO 2 terms. AR6 regions: DEV = Developed countries; APC = Asia and Pacific; EEA = Eastern Europe and West-Central Asia; AFR = Africa; LAM = Latin America and the Caribbean; MDE = Middle East. Source: updated and adapted with permission from [[#Iacobuta--2018|Iacobuta et al. (2018)]] to reflect AR6 regional aggregation and recent data.

The NDCs vary in their scope, content and time frame, reflecting different national circumstances, and are widely heterogeneous in both stringency and coverage of mitigation efforts ( [[#UNFCCC%20Secretariat--2016|UNFCCC Secretariat 2016]] , 2021; [[#Pauw--2018|Pauw et al. 2018]] ; [[#Campagnolo--2019|Campagnolo and Davide 2019]] ; [[#Pauw--2019|Pauw et al. 2019]] ). The mitigation targets in the new or updated NDCs range from economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets to strategies, plans and actions for low-emission development, with specific time frames or implementation periods specified. Less than 10% of parties’ NDCs specify when their emissions are expected to peak and some of these parties express their target as a carbon budget ( [[#UNFCCC%20Secretariat--2021|UNFCCC Secretariat 2021]] ). Many long-term strategies submitted by Parties to the UNFCCC refer to net zero emissions or climate neutrality, carbon neutrality, or GHG neutrality with reference to 2050, 2060 or mid-century targets ( [[#UNFCCC%20Secretariat--2021|UNFCCC Secretariat 2021]] ). The growing prevalence and coverage of emission targets is documented in [[#_idTextAnchor048|Figure 13.2]] .

Almost all Parties outlined domestic mitigation measures as key instruments for achieving mitigation targets in specific priority areas such as energy supply (89%), transport (80%), buildings (72%), industry (39%), agriculture (67%), LULUCF (75%) and waste (68%). Renewable energy generation was the most frequently indicated mitigation option (84%), followed by improving energy efficiency of buildings (63%) and multi-sector energy efficiency improvement (48%); afforestation, reforestation and revegetation (48%); and improving energy efficiency of transport (45%) ( [[#UNFCCC%20Secretariat--2021|UNFCCC Secretariat 2021]] ). Parties often communicated mitigation options related to the circular economy, including reducing waste (29%) and recycling waste (30%) and promoting circular economy (25%). Many Parties highlighted policy coherence and synergies between their mitigation measures and development priorities, which included long-term low-emission development strategy(LT-LEDS), the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and, for some, green recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Some countries approach NDCs as an opportunity to integrate mitigation objectives and broader economic shifts or sectoral transformations ( ''medium evidence'' , ''medium agreement'' ). For example, Brazil’s 2016 NDC focussed on emissions from land-use change, including agricultural intensification, to align mitigation with a national development strategy of halting deforestation in the Amazon, and increasing livestock production ( [[#De%20Oliveira%20Silva--2018|De Oliveira Silva et al. 2018]] ). While the forest sector accounts for the bulk of Madagascar’s mitigation potential, its NDC promotes GHG mitigation in both AFOLU and energy sectors to maximise co-benefits, and achieve a higher number of sustainable development goals (SDGs) ( [[#Nogueira--2020|Nogueira et al. 2020]] ).

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