Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-3 (section)

=== 3.1.3 Complementary Use of Large Scenario Ensembles and a Limited Set of Illustrative Mitigation Pathways (IMPs) ===

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The assessment of mitigation pathways explores a wide scenario space from the literature within which seven Illustrative Pathways (IPs) are explored. The overall process is indicated in Figure 3.5a.

For a comprehensive assessment, a large ensemble of scenarios is collected and made available through an interactive [https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ar6/ AR6 Scenarios Database] [[#footnote-016|4]] . The collected information is shared across the chapters of AR6 and includes more than 3000 different pathways from a diverse set of studies. After an initial screening and quality control, scenarios were further vetted to assess if they sufficiently represented historical trends (Annex III.II.3.1). Subsequently, the climate consequences of each scenario were assessed using the climate emulator (leading to further classification). The assessment in [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/chapter/chapter-3 Chapter 3] is, however, not limited to the scenarios from the database, and wherever necessary other literature sources are also assessed in order to bring together multiple lines of evidence.

In parallel, based on the overall AR6 assessment, seven illustrative pathways (IP) were defined representing critical mitigation strategies discussed in the assessment. The seven pathways are composed of two sets: (i) one set of five Illustrative Mitigation Pathways (IMPs) and (ii) one set of two reference pathways illustrative for high emissions. The IMPs are on the one hand representative of the scenario spac but also help to communicate archetypes of distinctly different systems transformations and related policy choices. Subsequently, seven scenarios were selected from the full database that fitted these storylines of each IP best. For these scenarios more strict vetting criteria were applied. The selection was done by first applying specific filters based on the storyline followed by a final selection (Box 3.1 and Figure 3.5a).

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