Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-6 (section)

=== Box 6.1 | Energy Access, Energy Systems, and Sustainability ===

<div id="h2-1-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

Successful mitigation must work in tandem with fundamental development goals such as access to modern forms of energy. In many developing countries, access to electricity, clean cooking fuels, and modern and efficient energy remain an essential societal priority. This is particularly true in sub-Saharan Africa and several Asian countries. SDG 7 on universal access to modern energy includes targets on modern energy services, renewable energy, and energy efficiency, which implies a profound transformation of the current energy systems. Although there are different definitions of energy access, the ultimate goal is universal access to clean and modern fuels.

Despite progress in some countries such as India, Bangladesh and Kenya, 860 million people were without access to electricity in 2018, compared with 1.2 billion in 2010. About 2.65 billion households were cooking with solid fuels, distributed across Asia and Africa ( [[#IEA--2020|IEA et al. 2020]] ). Around 850 million people in sub-Saharan Africa relied on traditional biomass (firewood and charcoal) for cooking, and 60 million relied on kerosene and coal to meet their energy needs ( [[#IEA--2018a|IEA 2018a]] ). Air pollution was likely responsible for 1.1 million deaths across Africa in 2019 ( [[#Fisher--2021|Fisher et al. 2021]] ). It has been estimated that 2.2 billion people will still be dependent on inefficient and polluting energy sources for cooking by 2030, mainly in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, and 650 million people are likely to remain without access to electricity in 2030, 90% of whom will reside in Sub-Saharan Africa ( [[#IEA--2020|IEA et al. 2020]] ).

<div id="_idContainer011x"></div>

[[File:5ec8b0d59f00b48c67dd6f5f48689909 IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Box_6_1_Figure_1.png]]

'''Box 6.1, Figure 1 | Measuring access to energy.''' Source: with permission from ESMAP-World Bank 2015.

Research indicates that decentralised and on-grid renewables are likely the least cost options to provide universal access to electricity by 2030 ( [[#6.4.2|Section 6.4.2]] ). Natural gas, LPG, and improved biomass cookstoves are the most important options for cooking. Universal access to electricity and clean cooking requires a rapid shift from traditional biomass to cleaner fuels and/or clean cooking technologies ( [[#IEA--2020|IEA et al. 2020]] ). It has been estimated that the provision of electricity and clean cooking for all would require USD786 billion in cumulative investment to 2030, equal to 3.4% of total energy sector investment over the period ( [[#IEA--2017|IEA 2017]] ).

Even without universal access to modern energy, increased access will substantially affect energy systems, particularly electricity systems through the deployment of renewable energy, LPG, and biomass supply chains. Universal access for households, however, will have a minimal impact on global energy demand; it has been estimated that universal access for household will increase energy demand by 0.2% in 2030 (37 Mtoe yr –1 ) relative to a future without any change in access to modern energy ( [[#IEA--2017|IEA 2017]] ).

'''There have been initial efforts to phase out coal but only modest declines in use'''

Global coal consumption has been declining, with small fluctuations, since it peaked in 2013 ( [[#IEA--2020d|IEA 2020d]] ). Coal is faring differently across regions. Coal use has been decreasing in the OECD regions, particularly in the USA and the European Union (EU), while remaining mostly flat in China after a period of growth, and it is continuing to increase in other major developing Asian economies ( [[#IEA--2020d|IEA 2020d]] ). Trends in the electricity sector, where most coal is being consumed, are similar. Growth in coal-fired electricity generation capacity in the Asia Pacific region has offset retirements in North America and Europe ( [[#Jakob--2020|Jakob et al. 2020]] ; Global Energy Monitor et al., 2021).

Reductions in coal consumption have been driven in large part by non-climate factors, most notably environmental regulations to address air pollution, rapidly declining costs of renewables, and lower natural gas prices, especially inexpensive unconventional gas in the USA. ( [[#Culver--2016|Culver and Hong 2016]] ; Diluiso et al.2021; [[#Vinichenko--2021|Vinichenko et al. 2021]] ). Older coal-fired power plants that cannot meet new environmental regulations, or have become unprofitable or uncompetitive, have been closed in many regions. Moreover, coal power expansion has slowed down in Asia, as countries have suspended and cancelled new projects for reasons such as overcapacity, environmental constraints, and the development of renewables (Box 6.2).

Different regions have replaced retired coal with different energy sources. Old coal fleets have been replaced approximately half by gas and half by renewables in the USA, mainly by renewables in the EU, and by advanced coal plants and renewables in Asia (EMBER 2020). Replacing old coal with new coal facilities is inconsistent with limiting warming to 2°C or below ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Pfeiffer--2016|Pfeiffer et al. 2016]] , 2018; [[#Smith--2019|Smith et al. 2019]] ; [[#Tong--2019|Tong et al. 2019]] ) ( [[#6.7.4|Section 6.7.4]] ).

Major coal-consuming countries with abundant coal reserves remain far from phasing out coal ( [[#Edenhofer--2018|Edenhofer et al. 2018]] ; [[#Spencer--2018|Spencer et al. 2018]] ). In most developing countries with large coal reserves, coal use has been increasing to support energy security and because it is perceived to have lower costs than alternatives ( [[#Steckel--2015|Steckel et al. 2015]] ; Kalkuhl et al.2019). However, coal faces increasing business risks from the decreasing costs of alternative, low-emissions energy sources and increasing focus on air pollution and other environmental impacts from coal mining and use (Garg et al. 2017; Sovacool et al. 2021). Continued coal builds, mostly in developing countries, will increase the risks of stranded assets ( [[#Farfan%20Orozco--2017|Farfan Orozco 2017]] ; [[#Cui--2019|Cui et al. 2019]] ; [[#Saygin--2019|Saygin et al. 2019]] ) (Box 6.13).

Economic, social, and employment impacts of accelerated coal phase-outs tend to be significant in coal-dependent regions. Tailored reemployment has been used to support coal transitions in some regions. Although some estimates show higher employment opportunities from low-carbon energy ( [[#Garrett-Peltier--2017|Garrett-Peltier 2017]] ), results vary across regions. Moreover, even with a net increase in total employment, in the long run, renewable jobs are often located outside of coal regions and require different skill sets from the coal industry ( [[#Spencer--2018|Spencer et al. 2018]] ). In a broader sense, achieving a ‘just transition’ also requires managing the impacts on regional economic development for coal-dependent communities and the effects of higher energy prices for consumers and energy-intensive industries through a comprehensive policy package ( [[#Green--2020|Green and Gambhir 2020]] ; [[#Jakob--2020|Jakob et al. 2020]] ) (Box 6.2).

<div id="box-6.2" class="h2-container box-container"></div>

<span id="box-6.2-status-and-challenges-of-a-coal-phase-out"></span>