Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-5 (section)

===== 5.4.2.3.2 Wealth generated from coastal and marine tourism sector =====

Tourism is one of the largest sectors in the global economy. Between 1995‒1998 and 2011‒2014, the average total contribution of tourism to global GDP increased from 69 billion USD (6.8%) to 166 billion USD (8.5%) respectively, and generated more than 21 million jobs between 2011‒2014 (UNCTAD, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1536|1536]]</sup> ). Coastal tourism and other marine-related recreational activities contributes substantially to the tourism sector (Cisneros-Montemayor et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1537|1537]]</sup> ; O’Malley et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1538|1538]]</sup> ; Spalding et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1539|1539]]</sup> ; Giorgio et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1540|1540]]</sup> ; UNWTO, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1541|1541]]</sup> ). For example, it is estimated that around 121 million people a year participated in marine-based recreational activities, generating  47 billion in 2003 USD in expenditures and supporting one million jobs (Cisneros-Montemayor and Sumaila, 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r1542|1542]]</sup> ). Tourism is one of the main industries that provides opportunities for social and economic development (Jiang and DeLacy, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1543|1543]]</sup> ), and marine tourism is particularly important for many coastal developing countries and Small Island Developing States (SIDS). AR5 identified the tourism sector in the Caribbean region as particularly vulnerable to climate change effects, due to hurricanes, whilst SR15 concluded that warming will directly affect climate-dependent tourism markets on a worldwide basis ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1544|1544]]</sup> ). This assessment provides updates since AR5 and SR15.

Empirical modelling of future risks to tourism is based on projected climate impacts (Section 5.3) for relevant coastal ecosystems, including degradation or loss of beach and coral reef assets (Weatherdon et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1545|1545]]</sup> ) (Section 4.3.3.6.2). These projections are developed from the relationship between the economic benefits generated from coral reef related tourism with observed characteristics of coral reefs, the characteristics of tourism activities. Based on scenarios of projected future warming and decreases in coral reef coverage, a global loss of tourism and recreation value in the near-future (2031‒2050) of 2.57–2.95 billion yr -1 in 2000 USD is projected under RCP2.6, and of 3.88‒5.80 billion yr -1 in 2000 USD under RCP8.5 (Chen et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1546|1546]]</sup> ). Opinion surveys in four countries suggest that if severe coral bleaching persists in the Great Barrier Reef, tourism in adjacent areas could greatly decline, from 2.8 million to around 1.7 million visitors per year, equivalent to more than 1 billion AUS (~0.69 billion USD using exchange rate in 2019), that is, in tourism expenditure and with potential loss of around 10,000 jobs (Swann and Campbell, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1547|1547]]</sup> ).

Many coastal tourism destinations are exposed to risks of flooding, SLR and coastal squeeze on coastal ecosystems (Lithgow et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1548|1548]]</sup> ) (Section 5.3); there are also other climate related-risks. Droughts, which are projected to be more frequent, will also impact the tourism industry (and local food security) through water and food shortages (Pearce et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1549|1549]]</sup> ). If climate change and ocean acidification reduce the seafood supply, the attractiveness of coastal regions for tourists will also decrease (Wabnitz et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1550|1550]]</sup> ). North Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms have increased in intensity over the last 30 years, with climate projections indicating an increasing trend in hurricane intensity (Chapter 6). Three major Caribbean storms, Harvey, Irma and Maria, occurred in 2017, with loss and damage to the tourism industries of Dominica, the British Virgin Islands, and Antigua and Barbuda estimated at 2.2 billion USD, and environmental recovery costs estimated at 6.8 million USD (UNDP, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1551|1551]]</sup> ). Pacific tourist destinations, which tend to focus on nature-based and marine activities, are also at high risk of extreme events and other climate change impacts (Klint et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1552|1552]]</sup> ). However, global tourism has a high carbon footprint (flights, cruises, etc.) (Lenzen et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1553|1553]]</sup> ), so any reduction in the intensity of this sector would help mitigate climate change.

Evidence from recent studies on projected climate risks on recreational fishing is equivocal, with the direction of impacts depending on the location, species targeted and societal context. For example: poleward range shifts of marine fish (Section 5.2.3) could yield new opportunities for recreational fishing in mid- to high-latitude regions (DiSegni and Shechter, 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1554|1554]]</sup> ); projected increases in air temperature may enable longer fishing days in some area (Dundas and von Haefen, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1555|1555]]</sup> ); and extreme events may alter the composition of recreational fishing catches (Santos et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1556|1556]]</sup> ). Since climate risks to recreational fishing vary largely depending on the responses of the targeted species to climate-related pressures, there is ''low confidence'' in the overall risk to the activity.

Overall, evidence since AR5 and SR15 confirms that climate impacts to coastal ecosystems would increase risks to coastal tourism, particularly under high emission scenarios ( ''medium confidence'' ). Economic impacts will be greatest for those developing countries where tourism is the main source of foreign revenue ( ''medium'' to ''high evidence'' ).

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