Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-Atlas (section)

==== [[#Atlas.5.2.5|Atlas.5.2.5]] Summary ====

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Annual surface air temperature and precipitation have ''very likely'' increased and maximum snow depth has ''likely'' increased over most of North Asia since the mid-1970s. The highest warming has been found in spring in ESB and RFE, strengthening from south to north with linear trends of 0.8°C–1.2°C per decade over the 1976–2014 period ( ''high confidence'' ). A temperature decrease was identified just in winter in the southern part of WSB and ESB as a result of natural variability, but halved from –0.6°C per decade in 1976–2012 to –0.3°C per decade for the longer 1976–2018 period due to recent warmer winters ( ''high confidence'' ). Over North Asia annual precipitation increases with estimated trends of 5–15 mm per decade in the 1976–2014 period have been recorded with an exception over the Kamchatka and the Chukchi peninsulas, where decreases of up to –20 mm per decade in the same period have been found ( ''medium confidence'' ). Snow cover duration has ''very likely'' decreased over Siberia and increases in maximum snow depths of 1.8 cm, 1.1 cm and 4.6 cm per decade have been observed for WSB, ESB and RFE respectively from 1976 to 2016 ( ''limited evidence'' ).

Most of the CMIP5 and some CMIP6 GCMs overestimate the annual mean air temperature and precipitation over the North Asia region ( ''medium confidence'' ). GCMs generally represent the observed decadal temperature trend ( ''medium confidence'' ) and biases primarily come from the winter (DJF) season ( ''high confidence'' ). Results of a very limited number of RCMs applied over the whole region show that they have warmer biases for maximum and colder biases for minimum temperatures ( ''limited evidence'' , ''medium agreement'' ). Sparsity of observational data particularly in the northern part of ESB and the whole of the RFE results in ''low confidence'' in the assessments of model performance in North Asia.

Surface air temperature and precipitation in North Asia are projected to increase further ( ''high confidence'' ) with warming higher than the global average and around 6°C at the 4°C GWL. Temperature change in 2080–2099 relative to 1981–2000 is ''likely'' in the range of 3°C in summer to 4.9°C in winter under the RCP4.5 scenario, and 5.6°C in summer to 9.7°C in winter under the RCP8.5 scenario. Precipitation is projected to increase with ensemble-mean changes of 9% in summer under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and of 22% and 56% in winter respectively.

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