Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

=== 13.6.2 Solution Space and Adaptation Options ===

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Monetary assessments of future damages from climate extremes on critical infrastructures show an escalating sevenfold increase by 2080s (Figure 13.18) compared with the baseline ( [[#Forzieri--2018|Forzieri et al., 2018]] ), highlighting the need for adaptation.

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[[File:4578dbed462033d8059dea3752214158 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_13_018.png]]

'''Figure 13.18 |''' '''Climate risks to critical infrastructures, aggregated at European (EU+) level under the SRES A1B scenario (Forzieri et al.''' ''', 2018).''' Baseline: 1981–2010; 2020s: 2011–2040; 2050s: 2041–2070; 2080s: 2071–2100

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==== 13.6.2.1 Current Status of Adaptation ====

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There is new evidence on increasing adaptation planning in cities, settlements and key infrastructures, but less on implemented adaptation (Table 13.1; see Box 13.3; Figure 13.36), adaptation by private actors and by cities against SLR (Chapter 16; Cross-Chapter Paper 2).

'''Table 13.1 |''' Present status of planned and implemented adaptation in European cities, energy sector, tourism sector, transport and industry (Table SM13.17)

{| class="wikitable"
|-
!
! colspan="3"| '''General commitments / Adaptation Plans'''

! colspan="3"| '''Implemented adaptation actions'''

|-
| Cities

| colspan="3"| * An increasing number of cities acknowledge the critical role of adaptation in building resilience to climate change.
* Of 9609 European municipalities in the Covenant of Mayors for Climate &amp; Energy (CoM), 2221 reported on adaptation through the CoM platform; 429 provided some information on adaptation goals, risk and vulnerability assessments/action plans, and less than 300 reported adaptation goals and funds. Extreme heat, drought and forest fire were the most often reported hazards.
* Most urban adaptation plans include ecosystem-based measures, but often with limited baseline information and convincing implementation actions.
* Adaptation to risks from climate extremes (mostly flooding) is often addressed through municipal emergency plans.

| colspan="3"| * Large cities (e.g., Helsinki, Copenhagen, Rotterdam, Barcelona, Madrid, London, Moscow) are in the process of implementing adaptation actions.
* Current climate policies implemented at city-scale are primarily addressing mitigation and, to a lesser extent adaptation. Though many cities have implemented measures potentially supporting adaptation, they are not labelled as such.
* Nature-based Solutions and ecosystem-based adaptation are increasingly used to address urban heat and flooding risks that are enhanced by surface sealing and limited infiltration.
* Strategic and emergency measures have been applied for drought management in some cities (e.g., London, Istanbul).

|-
| rowspan="2"| Energy

| rowspan="2" colspan="3"| * In 2020, 29 countries had an adaptation plan for the energy sector. Some of them included specific adaptation actions (mostly preparatory) in their national or energy-specific risk assessments.

| colspan="3"| * In 2020, 11 countries had implemented adaptation actions in the energy sector.

|-
| colspan="3"| * Measures undertaken by some distribution system operators and energy companies, focus on adaptation of transmission lines, water cooling, actions to avoid flooding (e.g. dams) and secure fuel supply.

|-
| rowspan="2"| Tourism

| rowspan="2" colspan="3"| * Consideration of tourism in national adaptation strategies is limited, and national tourism strategies rarely mention adaptation.
* In some countries there is legally binding consideration of climate change when constructing new tourism units (e.g., the 2016 French Mountain Act).
* Many tourism operators focus on near-term coping strategies and do not consider longer term adaptation.

| colspan="3"| * Snow making is widely applied in the Alps and Pyrenees ski resorts; e.g. from 18% of ski slopes in Germany to 67% in Austria. Some resorts already offer nocturnal skiing (e.g., Spain) and other snow-based activities.
* There is already some transformation to year-round mountain resorts (e.g., in 70% of Spanish ski resorts).

|-
| colspan="3"| * Some diversification of tourism products is offered in Mediterranean coastal destinations.
* Water saving measures, primarily for cost reduction, have been implemented, e.g. in hotels.

|-
| rowspan="2"| Transport

| colspan="3"| * At the national level, 10 countries have started coordination activities or identified adaptation measures. Some countries are mainstreaming adaptation within transport planning and decision-making (e.g., the ‘Low-water Rhine’ action plan, in Germany).
* Some action is undertaken in the public and private sector, e.g., revised manuals/guidelines/ protocols that consider climate change impacts and extreme events (e.g., Deutsche Bahn, Norwegian Public Roads Administration).
* An integrated, transmodal approach to transport adaptation is lacking.

| colspan="3"| * Most adaptation actions are preparatory; 5 countries have implemented specific actions. Planned and implemented actions mostly focus on infrastructure and much less on services, although the latter are increasing (e.g., operational forecasts for water levels in rivers).
* Transport modes often compete for public funds and political priorities often influence adaptation for specific modes.

|-
| colspan="3"|
| colspan="3"| * Some public and private actors are moving faster: new railway drainage standards (Network Rail/ UK), adverse weather event predictions (Spanish rail service operator), measures against coastal flooding (Copenhagen Metro), measures for sea level rise (Rotterdam port, France).

|-
| Industry and business

| colspan="3"| * Some businesses are following recommendations of the High-Level Expert Group on Sustainable Finance, endorsed by the European Commission, and implementing the guidelines provided by the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosure in 2019.

| colspan="3"| * Fifty large European publicly listed companies disclosed their climate risks in 2020, yet only a small percentage provided specifics on sectoral risks, as well as how risks differ over time and according to different climate scenarios.
* Large national and multinational companies, and companies regulated by mitigation policy are the first movers in corporate adaptation, while small and medium-sized enterprises often lack the knowledge and resources to address risks and adaptation options.
* Climate service providers, insurance companies and central banks have developed different tools for climate risk assessment, such as, stress testing, scenario analysis, value at risk.

|-
|
| Well-established adaptation

|
| colspan="2"| Advancing adaptation

|
| Low adaptation

|}

Although urban adaptation is underway, many small, economically weak (i.e., with low GDP per capita) or cities facing high climate-change risks lack adaptation planning ( [[#Reckien--2015|Reckien et al., 2015]] ; [[#EEA--2016|EEA, 2016]] ). While almost all large municipalities in NEU and WCE report implemented actions at least in one sector, this is not the case for 39% of municipalities in SEU ( [[#Aguiar--2018|Aguiar et al., 2018]] ). In the UK, the legal requirement to develop urban adaptation plans has been a significant driver for their widespread adoption ( [[#Reckien--2015|Reckien et al., 2015]] ). The availability of, and access to, funding for adaptation is also crucial for plan development ( [[#13.11.1|Section 13.11.1]] ). Network membership (e.g., ICLEI, C40, Covenant of Mayors for Climate &amp; Energy) is an important driver for city planning and transfer of best practices ( [[#Heikkinen--2020a|Heikkinen et al., 2020a]] ). Stakeholder engagement is key for successful adaptation (Chapter 17; [[#Bertoldi--2020|Bertoldi et al., 2020]] ).

Only 29% of local adaptation plans are mainstreamed in cities, which could reduce the effectiveness of implementing adaptation ( [[#13.11.1.2|Section 13.11.1.2]] ; [[#Reckien--2019|Reckien et al., 2019]] ). Although large municipalities usually fund the implementation of their adaptation plans, smaller and less populated municipalities (particularly in SEU and EEU) often depend on intergovernmental, international and national funding.

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==== 13.6.2.2 Adaptation Options as a Function of Impacts ====

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Examples of adaptation options in Europe are presented in Figure 13.19.

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[[File:4b1c5d4ac3814629b4df85d86d0dd4f9 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_13_019.png]]

'''Figure 13.19 |''' '''Adaptation options in cities, settlements and key infrastructures in Europe''' ''(Table SM13.7)''

Both NbS and EbA, such as green spaces, ponds, wetlands and green roofs for urban stormwater management and vegetation for heat mitigation, represent an emerging adaptation option in cities. Combined with traditional water infrastructure, they can contribute to managing urban flood events ( [[#Kourtis--2021|Kourtis and Tsihrintzis, 2021]] ), playing a role in mitigating flood peaks ( [[#Pour--2020|Pour et al., 2020]] ) and protecting critical urban infrastructure ( [[#Ossa-Moreno--2017|Ossa-Moreno et al., 2017]] ). For example, in the Augustenborg district of Malmö, Sweden, using nature to manage stormwater runoff has resulted in capturing an estimated 90% of runoff from impervious surfaces and reduced the total annual runoff volume from the district by about 20% compared with the conventional system ( [[#EEA--2020b|EEA, 2020b]] ). Urban greening is associated with lower ambient air temperature and relatively higher thermal comfort during warm periods ( [[#Bowler--2010|Bowler et al., 2010]] ; [[#Oliveira--2011|Oliveira et al., 2011]] ; [[#Cohen--2012|Cohen et al., 2012]] ; [[#Cameron--2014|Cameron et al., 2014]] ). The scale and relative degree of management or integration of approaches drawing on nature with ‘engineered’ solutions affect their vulnerability to climate change. Small-scale urban NbS are relatively less vulnerable due to increased capacity for intervention, while the relatively greater contact between stakeholders and urban NbS (compared with larger-scale, rural approaches) provides greater opportunity for human intervention to ensure the survival of urban vegetation during droughts or heatwaves.

When selecting and combining adaptation options, challenges remain on how to address the uncertainties of climate projections and climatic extremes ( [[#Fowler--2021|Fowler et al., 2021]] ) and to translate scientific input into practical guidance for adaptation ( [[#13.11.1.3|Section 13.11.1.3]] ; [[#Dale--2021|Dale, 2021]] ).

An assessment of the feasibility and effectiveness of the main adaptation options, based on the literature, is presented in Figure 13.20. (For adaptation to flood risk, see Figure 13.6.)

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[[File:3635c9789aec74888cf393c5b6acd904 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_13_020.png]]

'''Figure 13.20 |''' '''Effectiveness and feasibility of the main adaptation options for cities, settlements and key infrastructures in Europe''' (Section SM13.9; Table SM13.8)

There are gaps in knowledge on the social, environmental and geophysical dimensions of feasibility for many options, and a holistic assessment of different options is largely lacking. This latter issue could reveal unintended impacts from, and synergies or trade-offs between, options, as in water and wastewater services ( [[#Dobson--2020|Dobson and Mijic, 2020]] ).

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==== 13.6.2.3 Adaptation Limits, Residual Risks, and Incremental and Transformative Adaptation ====

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Adaptation in cities, settlements and key infrastructures in Europe faces technical, environmental, economic and social limits (Figure 13.21).

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'''Figure 13.21 |''' '''Indicative adaptation limits in cities, settlements and key infrastructures in Europe''' ''(Table SM13.16)''

Adaptation options for many sectors will not be sufficient to remove residual risks, for example, regarding (a) overheating in buildings under high GWL ( [[#Tillson--2013|Tillson et al., 2013]] ; [[#Virk--2014|Virk et al., 2014]] ; [[#Dodoo--2016|Dodoo and Gustavsson, 2016]] ; [[#Mulville--2016|Mulville and Stravoravdis, 2016]] ; [[#Hamdy--2017|Hamdy et al., 2017]] ; [[#Heracleous--2018|Heracleous and Michael, 2018]] ; [[#Dino--2019|Dino and Meral Akgül, 2019]] ); (b) snowmaking beyond 3°C GWL ( [[#Scott--2019|Scott et al., 2019]] ; [[#Steiger--2020|Steiger and Scott, 2020]] ; [[#Steiger--2020|Steiger et al., 2020]] ); (c) hydropower ( [[#Gaudard--2013|Gaudard et al., 2013]] ; [[#Ranzani--2018|Ranzani et al., 2018]] ); (d) electricity transmission and demand ( [[#Bollinger--2016|Bollinger and Dijkema, 2016]] ; [[#EEA--2019a|EEA, 2019a]] ; [[#Palkowski--2019|Palkowski et al., 2019]] ); (e) urban subways ( [[#Jenkins--2014a|Jenkins et al., 2014a]] ); and (f) flood mitigation in cities ( [[#Skougaard%20Kaspersen--2017|Skougaard Kaspersen et al., 2017]] ; [[#Umgiesser--2020|Umgiesser, 2020]] ). Some adaptation actions in a sector may also have side effects on others, increasing their vulnerability (Sections 13.2.2, 13.2.3; [[#Pranzini--2015|Pranzini et al., 2015]] ).

Examples of transformative adaptation in urban areas have been observed (e.g., the Benthemplein water square, the Floating Pavilion in Rotterdam and the Hafencity flood proofing in Hamburg), but they often remain policy experiments and prove challenging to upscale ( [[#Jacob--2015|Jacob, 2015]] ; [[#Restemeyer--2015|Restemeyer et al., 2015]] ; [[#Restemeyer--2018|Restemeyer et al., 2018]] ; [[#Holscher--2019|Holscher et al., 2019]] ). Active involvement of local stakeholders, public administration and political leaders are drivers for community transformation, whereas lack of local resources and/or capacities are frequently reported barriers to change ( [[#Fünfgeld--2019|Fünfgeld et al., 2019]] ; [[#Thaler--2019|Thaler et al., 2019]] ).

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==== 13.6.2.4 Governance and Insurance ====

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Urban adaptation plans can enhance resilience, and their development is mandatory in the UK, France and Denmark ( [[#Reckien--2019|Reckien et al., 2019]] ). There is ''medium confidence'' that the development of urban adaptation planning is much more influenced by a city’s population size, present adaptive capacity and GDP per capita than by anticipated climate risks ( [[#Reckien--2018|Reckien et al., 2018]] ). A high organisational capacity in a municipality may not be a necessary condition for forward-looking investment decisions on urban water infrastructure, although enablers differ for small versus medium-to-large municipalities ( [[#Pot--2019|Pot et al., 2019]] ). There is large in-country variation in policy mixes utilised by local governments for supporting adaptation ( [[#Lesnikowski--2019|Lesnikowski et al., 2019]] ). In early-adapter cities (e.g., Rotterdam), adaptation is institutionally embedded in climate, resilience and sustainability-related actions, as well as collaboration between city departments, government levels, businesses and other stakeholders ( [[#Holscher--2019|Holscher et al., 2019]] ). In most other cities, however, adaptation planners rarely consider collaborations with citizens, and there are difficulties in departmental coordination and upscaling from pilot projects ( [[#Brink--2018|Brink and Wamsler, 2018]] ).

The level and type of collaboration between the public and private sectors in managing climate risks varies across Europe ( [[#Wiering--2017|Wiering et al., 2017]] ; [[#Alkhani--2020|Alkhani, 2020]] ). For example, in flood management ( [[#13.2|Section 13.2]] ), the private-sector involvement in Rotterdam is much more pronounced and there are joint public–private responsibilities throughout most of the policy process due to the large share of private ownership of land and real estate ( [[#Mees--2014|Mees et al., 2014]] ).

In large infrastructure networks, the lack of a leading and powerful institutional body, with sufficient research resources targeted to climate-change risk assessment, may limit adaptive capacity, as for example in railways ( [[#Rotter--2016|Rotter et al., 2016]] ).

The European insurance industry has developed tailored products for specific climate risks threatening cities, settlements and key infrastructures, such as risk-based flood insurance for homeowners and companies ( [[#13.2.3|Section 13.2.3]] ). The European insurance industry is developing new services (such as risk analysis and catastrophe modelling embedding climate change, early warning and post-event recovery recommendations), and it has recently started to play a role as communicator of future risks and as institutional investor with the aim of risk reduction ( [[#Jones--2016|Jones and Phillips, 2016]] ; [[#Marchal--2019|Marchal et al., 2019]] ).

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==== 13.6.2.5 Links Between Adaptation and Mitigation ====

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Evidence from transport in Europe shows that adaptation actions do not consider enough long-term transition paths embedded in mitigation, while mitigation strategies are often not assessed under future climate scenarios ( [[#Aparicio--2017|Aparicio, 2017]] ). Without rapid decarbonisation of electricity supply, greenhouse gas emissions will increase due to the increased use of air conditioning installations in cities. This trade-off can be reduced to some extent through use of more efficient cooling technologies ( [[#IEA--2018|IEA, 2018]] ) and complementary adaptation measures such as large-scale urban greening, building policies and behavioural changes in air conditioning use ( [[#Viguié--2020|Viguié et al., 2020]] ; [[#Sharifi--2021|Sharifi, 2021]] ; [[#Viguié--2021|Viguié et al., 2021]] ). Greenhouse gas emissions from transport may increase due to the temporary relocation of city residents to cooler locations during heatwaves ( [[#Juschten--2019|Juschten et al., 2019]] ), and from increased energy use for snowmaking in European ski resorts ( [[#Scott--2019|Scott et al., 2019]] ).

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