Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-16 (section)

==== 16.5.2.1 Identification of Key Risks ====

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The authors of the sectoral and regional chapters and cross chapter papers of the WGII AR6 Report identified more than 120 key risks (SM16.7.4). Authors were asked to rely on the above definition and criteria to identify risks that could potentially become severe according to changes in the associated hazards, the study systems’ exposure and/or vulnerability, and important adaptation strategies that could reduce these risks (see SM16.3 for methodology). Wherever possible, identification is based on literature that includes projected future conditions for all three components of risk and adaptation. Where literature was insufficient, potential severity is based on current vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards and the expectation that hazards will increase in frequency and/or intensity in the future. This approach is more limited in that it does not consider future changes in exposure and vulnerability nor in adaptation, but has the benefit of being grounded in observed experience.

Table SM16.24 indicates that climate change presents a wide range of risks across scales, sectors and regions that could become severe under particular conditions of hazards, exposure and vulnerability, which may or may not occur. Some illustrations of the extent and diversity of KRs are provided here, and more detailed assessment can be found in the Chapters referenced in the table.

Global-scale KRs include threats to biodiversity in oceans, coastal regions and on land, particularly in biodiversity hotspots, as well as other ecological risks such as geographic shifts in vegetation, tree mortality, reduction in populations and reduction in growth (such as for shellfish). These ecological risks include cascading impacts on livelihoods and food security. Global-scale risks also include risks to people, property and infrastructure from river flooding and extreme heat (particularly in urban areas), risks to fisheries (with implications for living standards and food security) and some health risks from food-borne diseases as well as psychopathologies.

Many KRs are especially prominent in particular regions or systems, or for particular subgroups of the population. For example, coastal systems and small islands are a nexus of many KRs, including those to ecosystems and their services, especially coral reefs; people (health, livelihoods); and assets, including infrastructure. Risks to socio-ecological systems in polar regions are also identified as KRs, as are ecological risks to the Amazon Forest in South America and savannahs in Africa. For some regions, risks from wildfire are of particular concern, including in Australasia and North America. Vector-borne diseases are a particular concern in Africa and Asia. Loss of cultural heritage is identified as a KR in small islands, mountain regions, Africa, Australasia and North America.

For many risks, low-income populations are particularly vulnerable to KRs. Climate-related impacts on malnutrition and other forms of food insecurity will be larger for this group, along with small-holder farming households and Indigenous communities reliant on agriculture, and for women, children, the elderly and the socially isolated ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.12|Section 5.12]] ). KRs in coastal communities are expected to affect low-income populations more strongly, including through risks to livelihoods of those reliant on coastal fisheries. KRs related to health are generally higher for low-income populations less likely to have adequate housing or access to infrastructure.

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