Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-5 (section)

=== Knowledge gap 3: Scenario modelling of services ===

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Scenarios start within parameter-rich models carrying more than a decade-long legacy of supply-side technologies that are not always gauged in recent technological developments. Service provisioning systems are not explicitly modelled, and diversity in concepts and patterns of lifestyles rarely considered. A new class of flexible and modular models with focus on services and activities, based on a variety of data sources including big data collected and compiled, is needed. There is scope for more sensitivity analysis on two aspects to better guide further detailed studies on societal response to policy. These aspects need to explore which socio-behavioural aspects and/or organisation changes has the biggest impact on energy/emissions reductions, and on the scale for take-back effects, due to interdependence on inclusion or exclusion of groups of people. Models mostly consider behavioural change free, and don’t account for how savings due to ‘Avoid’ measures may be re-spent. Most quantitatively measurable service indicators, for example passenger-kilometres travelled or tonne-kilometres of freight transport are also inadequate to measure services in the sense of well-being contributions. More research is needed on how to measure, for example, accessibility, social inclusion etc. Otherwise, services will also be poorly represented in scenarios.

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