Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-10 (section)

===== 10.4.6.3.8 Risks and impacts on infrastructure =====

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South Asia and Africa bear the highest losses from unreliable infrastructure, and climate change will increase these losses due to hazards and necessitate additional infrastructure investments to address new risks ( [[#Hallegatte--2019|Hallegatte et al., 2019]] ; [[#Lu--2019|Lu, 2019]] ) [[#footnote-006|7]] . Specifically, power generation and transport infrastructure incur losses of 30 billion USD a year on average from hazards (about 15 billion USD each), with low- and middle-income countries shouldering about 18 billion USD of the total amount ( [[#Koks--2019|Koks et al., 2019]] ; [[#Nicholls--2019|Nicholls et al., 2019]] ).

Among the top 20 countries that are rapidly expanding their infrastructure stock while facing high disaster risk and low infrastructure quality, the Asian countries are Lao PDR, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Kyrgyzstan, Bhutan and Vietnam. ( [[#UNISDR--2017|UNISDR, 2017]] ; [[#WEF--2018|WEF, 2018]] ). The losses are due to direct damage to infrastructure, disruption in services and affected supply chains ( [[#Hallegatte--2019|Hallegatte et al., 2019]] ). East Asia and the Pacific and South Asia have the highest adaptation deficits in coastal protection with 75 billion USD in the former and 49 billion USD in the latter ( [[#Nicholls--2019|Nicholls et al., 2019]] ). If overall damages are minimised, low- and middle-income countries may need to invest 0.1–0.5% of their GDP annually up to 2030 for protection against both coastal and river floods, varying based on level of acceptable risks, construction costs, urbanisation and climate uncertainties [[#footnote-005|8]] .

* '''Power disruption:''' Contrasting with high-income, countries such as the USA, where hazards, particularly storms, are responsible for 50% of power outages, this share is much lower in countries like Bangladesh or India, because system failures due to unnatural causes are very frequent. However, outages caused by hazards tend to be longer and geographically more widespread than other outages ( [[#Rentschler--2019|Rentschler et al., 2019]] ). Climate-change-induced SLR is expected to impact power infrastructure, even necessitating power plant relocation ( [[#Hallegatte--2019|Hallegatte et al., 2019]] ). In Bangladesh, to avoid inundations caused by SLR (SSP2, RCP8.5), approximately one-third of power plants may need to be relocated by 2030. An additional 30% of power plants are ''likely'' to be affected by increased salinity of cooling water and increased frequency of flooding, while power plants in the northern region will probably see a decrease in output because of droughts ( [[#Hallegatte--2019|Hallegatte et al., 2019]] ). In 2013 in Chittagong ( [[#Pervin--2020|Pervin et al., 2020]] ), users experienced about 16 power outages due to storms alone ( [[#Hallegatte--2019|Hallegatte et al., 2019]] ). Furthermore, low-carbon technology diffusion might make certain infrastructures redundant, leading to stranded assets.

Across Asia, infrastructure impacts are mixed: net importers, such as China and India, will see GDP gains, while extreme examples include Russia, a net exporter, which could see steep declines in fossil fuel production ( [[#Mercure--2018|Mercure et al., 2018]] ). In low- and middle-income countries globally, disruption in power supply can impact firms directly (up to 120 billion USD yr –1 ), with coping costs (up to 65 billion USD yr –1 ) and other indirect impacts. Similarly, for households, the direct impact and cost of coping could be between 2.3 and 190 billion USD yr –1 . Although all power outage is not due to natural hazards, there is a significant number that is attributed to disasters. Besides, outages caused by natural hazards tend to be longer and geographically larger than other causes ( [[#Hallegatte--2019|Hallegatte et al., 2019]] ).

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<li>'''Transportation disruption:''' Of the 20 countries in which the road and railway infrastructure is expected to be most affected in absolute terms due to multi-hazards, half are Asian ( [[#Koks--2019|Koks et al., 2019]] ). In low- and middle-income countries globally, the direct losses to firms on account of transportation disruption are about 107 billion USD yr –1 , excluding the costs due to sales losses or delayed supplies and deliveries alone ( [[#Hallegatte--2019|Hallegatte et al., 2019]] ). In the transport sector, floods and other hazards disrupt traffic and cause congestion, taking a toll on people and firms in rich and poor countries alike.</li>
<li><p>'''Water supply and disposal infrastructure disruption:''' In low- and middle-income countries, disruption of water supply could lead to direct losses of about 6 billion USD yr –1 for firms, and between 88 and 153 billion USD yr –1 for households (due to willingness to pay to avoid disruption). Additionally, there are second-order costs associated with finding alternate sources of water and also health issues (on the order of 6–9 billion USD yr –1 accounting for medical bills and missed income) ( [[#Hallegatte--2019|Hallegatte et al., 2019]] ). In China, climate models project that an increasing number of wastewater-treatment-plant assets face climate-induced flood hazards in both the near and distant future, potentially affecting as many as 208 million users by 2050 ( [[#Hu--2019|Hu et al., 2019]] ).</p>
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