Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-16 (section)

==== 16.5.2.2 Identification of Representative Key Risks ====

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As in AR5 [[#Oppenheimer--2014|Oppenheimer et al. (2014)]] , major clusters of KRs are further analysed, and here referred to as ‘representative key risks’ (RKRs). RKRs were defined in a three-step process (SM16.3.1). First, half of [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-16 Chapter 16] authors independently mapped the KRs (SM16.7.4) to a set of candidate RKRs. Second, all [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-16 Chapter 16] authors discussed the set of independent results and proposed a list of RKRs, considering scope and overlap. Third, this proposal was discussed with a consultative group of about 20 WGII AR6 authors from other chapters closely involved in the KR identification process, and a final list of eight RKRs was identified (Table 16.6).

The RKRs are intended to capture the widest variety of KRs to human or ecological systems with a small number of categories that are easier to communicate and provide a manageable structure for further assessment. They expand the scope of some AR5 KR clusters (e.g., on coasts, health, food and water) and add new ones (e.g., on peace and human mobility). The RKRs encompass a diversity of types of systems, including an example of a geographically defined system (RKR ''-'' A on coastal regions), ecosystem well-being and integrity (RKR ''-'' B), a cross-cutting issue relevant to several outcomes of concern (RKR-C on critical infrastructure) and several topics focused directly on aspects of human well-being and security (RKR ''-'' D to RKR ''-'' H). This set of RKRs manages but does not eliminate overlap, instead providing alternative perspectives on underlying key risks that sometimes include complementary views on common risks. For example, the water security RKR highlights the many key risks mediated by water quantity or quality, which are sometimes manifested as risk to food security (RKR-F) or health (RKR-E).

'''Table 16.6 |''' Climate-related representative key risks (RKRs). The scope of each RKR is further described in the assessments in [[#16.5.2.3|Section 16.5.2.3]] . Relation to categories of overarching key risks identified in AR5 is provided for continuity.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Code

! Representative key risk

! Scope

! Relation to AR5 overarching key risks;

for definitions, refer to Oppenheimer et al.. (2014)

! Subsection assessment

|-
| RKR-A

| Risk to low-lying coastal socio-ecological systems

| Risks to ecosystem services, people, livelihoods and key infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas, and associated with a wide range of hazards, including sea level changes, ocean warming and acidification, weather extremes (storms, cyclones), sea ice loss, etc.

| Contains key risk (i), overlaps with key risks (iii) and (vii)

| 16.5.2.3.1

|-
| RKR-B

| Risk to terrestrial and ocean ecosystems

| Transformation of terrestrial and ocean/coastal ecosystems, including change in structure and/or functioning, and/or loss of biodiversity.

| Contained in key risks (vii) and (viii)

| 16.5.2.3.2

|-
| RKR-C

| Risks associated with critical physical infrastructure, networks and services

| Systemic risks due to extreme events leading to the breakdown of physical infrastructure and networks providing critical goods and services.

| Overlaps with key risk (iii)

| 16.5.2.3.3

|-
| RKR-D

| Risk to living standards

| Economic impacts across scales, including impacts on gross domestic product (GDP), poverty and livelihoods, as well as the exacerbating effects of impacts on socioeconomic inequality between and within countries.

| Broader version of key risk (ii)

| 16.5.2.3.4

|-
| RKR-E

| Risk to human health

| Human mortality and morbidity, including heat-related impacts and vector-borne and waterborne diseases.

| Broader version of key risk (iv)

| 16.5.2.3.5

|-
| RKR-F

| Risk to food security

| Food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems due to climate change effects on land or ocean resources.

| Overlaps with key risk (v)

| 16.5.2.3.6

|-
| RKR-G

| Risk to water security

| Risk from water-related hazards (floods and droughts) and water quality deterioration. Focus on water scarcity, water-related disasters and risk to indigenous and traditional cultures and ways of life.

| Overlaps with key risk (iv)

| 16.5.2.3.7

|-
| RKR-H

| Risks to peace and to human mobility

| Risks to peace within and among societies from armed conflict as well as risks to low-agency human mobility within and across state borders, including the potential for involuntarily immobile populations.

| New

| 16.5.2.3.8

|}

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