Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

==== 9.5.5.1 Temperature ====

<div id="h3-20-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

<div id="9.5.5.1.1" class="h4-container"></div>

<span id="observations-6"></span>
===== 9.5.5.1.1 Observations =====

<div id="h4-17-siblings" class="h4-siblings"></div>

Mean temperatures over the region have increased by 0.7°C–1°C from 1973 to 2013, depending on the season ( [[#Ayugi--2018|Ayugi and Tan, 2018]] ; [[#Camberlin--2018|Camberlin, 2018]] ). Increases in TX and TN are evident across the region accompanied by significantly increasing trends of warm nights, warm days and warm spells ( [[#Russo--2016|Russo et al., 2016]] ; [[#Gebrechorkos--2019|Gebrechorkos et al., 2019]] ; [[#Nashwan--2019|Nashwan and Shahid, 2019]] ). The greatest increases are found in northern and central regions.

<div id="9.5.5.1.2" class="h4-container"></div>

<span id="projections-6"></span>
===== 9.5.5.1.2 Projections =====

<div id="h4-18-siblings" class="h4-siblings"></div>

At 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, mean annual temperatures in east Africa are projected to be on average, 0.6°C, 1.1°C and 2.1°C warmer than the 1994–2005 average, respectively (Figure 9.16a). Highest increases are projected over the northern and central parts of the region and the lowest increase over the coastal regions ( [[#Otieno--2013|Otieno and Anyah, 2013]] ; [[#Dosio--2017|Dosio, 2017]] ). The magnitude and frequency of hot days are projected to increase from GWL 2°C and above with larger increases at higher GWLs (Figure 9.16a, b; [[#Dosio--2017|Dosio, 2017]] ; [[#Bathiany--2018|Bathiany et al., 2018]] ; [[#Dosio--2018|Dosio et al., 2018]] ; [[#Kharin--2018|Kharin et al., 2018]] ). At GWL 4.6°C a number of east African cities are projected to have an up to 2000-fold increase in exposure to dangerous heat (days &gt; 40.6 °C) compared to 1985–2005 including Blantyre-Limbe, Lusaka and Kampala ( [[#Mora--2017|Mora et al., 2017]] ; [[#Rohat--2019|Rohat et al., 2019]] ). Children born in 2020, under a 1.5°C-compatible scenario will be exposed to 3–5 times more heatwaves in their lifetimes compared to people born in 1960; this exposure increases to 4–9 times more heatwaves at GWL 2.4°C ( [[#Thiery--2021|Thiery et al., 2021]] ). The number of potentially lethal heat days per year is projected to increase from &lt;50 during 1995–2005 to &lt;50 at GWL 1.6°C, 50–120 at GWL 2.5°C and 150–350 at GWL 4.4°C with largest increases at the coast ( [[#Mora--2017|Mora et al., 2017]] ), highlighting the new emergence of dangerous heat conditions in these areas.

<div id="9.5.5.2" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="precipitation-3"></span>