Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-14 (section)

=== 14.6.1 Changing Nature of International Cooperation ===

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The main development since AR5 in terms of international climate cooperation has been the shift from the Kyoto Protocol to the Paris Agreement as the primary multilateral driver of climate mitigation policy worldwide ( [[#14.3|Section 14.3]] ). Most ''ex-post'' assessments of the Kyoto Protocol suggest that it did lead to emissions reductions in countries with binding targets, in addition to changing investment patterns in low-carbon technologies. As noted earlier, the Paris Agreement is tailored to the evolving understanding of the climate mitigation challenge as well as shifting political imperatives and constraints. Whether the Paris Agreement will in fact be effective in supporting global action sufficient to achieve its objectives is contested, with competing arguments in the scientific literature supporting different views. To some extent these views align with the different analytic frameworks ( [[#14.2.1|Section 14.2.1]] ): the Paris Agreement does not address the free-riding issue seen as important within the global commons framing, but may provide the necessary incentives and support mechanisms viewed as important under the political and transitions framings, respectively. The strongest critique of the Paris Agreement is that current NDCs themselves fail by a wide margin to add up to the level of aggregate emissions reductions necessary to achieve the objectives of holding global average warming well below 2°C, much less 1.5°C ( [[#14.3.3|Section 14.3.3]] Figure 14.2), and that there is no legally binding obligation to achieve the NDCs. Arguments in support of Paris are that it puts in place the processes, and generates normative expectations, that nudge NDCs to become progressively more ambitious over time, including in developing countries. The growing number of countries with mid-century net-zero GHG or CO 2 targets, consistent with Article 4 of the Paris Agreement, lends support to this proposition, although there is as yet no empirical literature drawing an unambiguous connection. The collective quantified goal from a floor of USD100 billion a year in transfers to developing countries, the Green Climate Fund and other provisions on finance in the Paris Agreement have also been recognised as key to cooperation (Sections 14.3.2.8 and 14.4.1). But then these arguments are met with counter arguments, that even with Paris processes in place, given the logic of iterative, rising levels of ambition over time, this is unlikely to happen within the narrow window of opportunity that exists to avert dangerous levels of global warming ( [[#14.3.3|Section 14.3.3]] ). The degree to which countries are willing to increase the ambition and secure the achievement of their NDCs over time will be an important indicator of the success of the Paris Agreement; evidence of this was expected by the end of 2020, but the COVID-19 pandemic has delayed the process of updating NDCs.

An increasing role is also played by other cooperative agreements, in particular (potentially) under Article 6 (Sections 14.3.2.10 and 14.4.4), transnational partnerships, and the institutions that support them. This fits both a transitions narrative that cooperation at the sub-global and sectoral levels is necessary to enable specific system transformations, and a recent emphasis in the public goods literature on club goods and a gradual approach to cooperation, also referred to as building blocks or incremental approach (Sections 14.2 and 14.5.1.4). There has been little analysis of whether these other agreements are of sufficient scale and scope to ensure that transformations happen quickly enough. This chapter, appraising them together, concludes that they are not. First, many agreements, such as those related to trade, may stand in the way of bottom-up mitigation efforts ( [[#14.5.1.3|Section 14.5.1.3]] ). Second, many sectoral agreements aimed at decarbonisation – such as within the air travel sector – have not yet adopted targets comparable in scale, scope or legal character to those adopted under the Paris Agreement ( [[#14.5.2.3|Section 14.5.2.3]] ). Third, there are many sectors for which there are no agreements in place. At the same time, there are some important bright spots, many in the area of transnational partnerships. A growing number of cities have committed themselves to adopting urban policies that will place them on a path to rapid decarbonisation, while learning from each other how to implement successful policies to realise climate goals ( [[#14.5.5|Section 14.5.5]] ). An increasing number of large corporations have committed to decarbonising their industrial processes and supply chains ( [[#14.5.4|Section 14.5.4]] ). And an ever-increasing number of non-state actors are adopting goals and initiating mitigation actions ( [[#14.5.3|Section 14.5.3]] ). These goals and actions, some argue, could bridge the mitigation gap created by inadequate NDCs, although the empirical literature to date challenges this, suggesting that there is less transparency and limited accountability for such actions, and mitigation targets and incentives are also not clear (Sections 14.3.3 and 14.5).

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