Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-16 (section)

=== Box 16.8 | Capacity Building and Innovation for Early Warning Systems in Small Island Developing States ===

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One of the areas of international cooperation on capacity building is adaptation, which has been highlighted by both the Technology Executive Committee (TEC) ( [[#Ockwell--2015|Ockwell et al. 2015]] ; [[#TEC--2015|TEC 2015]] ) and the Paris Committee on Capacity-building ( [[#UNFCCC--2020b|UNFCCC 2020b]] ) as an area where capacity gaps remain, especially in Small Island Developing States (SIDS).

While adaptation was initially conceived primarily in terms of infrastructural adjustments to long-term changes in average conditions (e.g., rising sea levels), a key innovation in recent years has been to couple such long-term risk management to existing efforts to manage disaster risk, specifically including early warning systems, enabling early action in the face of climate- and weather-risk at much shorter timescales ( [[#IPCC--2012|IPCC 2012]] ), with potentially significant rates of return ( [[#Rogers--2010|Rogers and Tsirkunov 2010]] ; [[#Hallegatte--2012|Hallegatte 2012]] ; [[#Global%20Commission%20on%20Adaptation--2019|Global Commission on Adaptation 2019]] ).

In recent years, deliberate international climate finance investments have focused on ensuring that developing countries (and especially SIDS and least-developed countries) have access to improvements in hydrometeorological observations, modelling, and prediction capacity, sometimes with a particular focus on the people intended to benefit from the information produced ( [[#CREWS--2016|CREWS 2016]] ). For instance, on the Eastern Caribbean SIDS of Dominica, researchers took a community-based approach to identify the mediating factors affecting the challenges to coastal fishing communities in the aftermath of two extreme weather events (in particular hurricane Maria in 2017) ( [[#Turner--2020|Turner et al. 2020]] ). Adopting an adaptive capacity framework ( [[#Cinner--2018|Cinner et al. 2018]] ), they identified ‘intangible resources’ that people relied on in their post-disaster response as important for starting up fishery, but also went beyond that framework to conclude that the response ability on the part of governmental organisations as well as other actors (e.g., fish vendors) in the supply chain is also a requirement for rebuilding and restarting income-generating activity ( [[#Turner--2020|Turner et al. 2020]] ). Numerous other studies have highlighted capacity-building as adaptation priorities ( [[#Basel--2020|Basel et al. 2020]] ; [[#Kuhl--2020|Kuhl et al. 2020]] ; [[#Sarker--2020|Sarker et al. 2020]] ; [[#Vogel--2020|Vogel et al. 2020]] ; [[#Williams--2020|Williams et al. 2020]] ).

One of several helpful innovations in these efforts is impact-based forecasting ( [[#Harrowsmith--2020|Harrowsmith et al. 2020]] ), which provides forecasts targeted at the impact of the hazard rather than simply the meteorological variable. This enables a much easier coupling to early action in response to the information, and a more appropriate response afterwards. Automatic responses to warnings have also been adopted in the humanitarian field for anticipatory action ahead of (rather than simply in response to) disasters triggered by natural hazards ( [[#Coughlan%20de%20Perez--2015|Coughlan de Perez et al. 2015]] ). This has resulted in a rapid scale-up of such anticipatory financing mechanisms to tens of countries over the past few years, and emerging evidence of its effectiveness. Still, the response is lacking in coherence and comprehensiveness, resulting in calls for a more systematic evidence agenda for anticipatory action ( [[#Weingärtner--2020|Weingärtner et al. 2020]] ).

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