Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-5 (section)

==== 5.4.2.4 Risk and Opportunities for Ocean Economy ====

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The ‘ocean economy’ refers to the sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth, improved livelihoods and jobs, and ocean ecosystem health (World Bank, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1565|1565]]</sup> ). In SR15 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1566|1566]]</sup> ) and elsewhere here (Chapters 3 and 5), the risks and opportunities of specific sectors that contribute to the ocean economy under climate change are assessed. The fishing industry is particularly important in this context. As previously noted, warming has already directly impacted coastal and open ocean fishing activities in some regions (Section 5.4.1.1, 5.4.2.3.1); the risk of fishery impacts is exacerbated by the observed climate-driven changes to coral reefs and other coastal ecosystems that contribute to the productivity of exploited fish species (Section 5.4.1.3, 5.4.2.3.1); and there are challenges to sustainable management of transboundary fisheries resources caused by species’ range shifts and associated governance challenges (Section 5.4.2.2.2).

Fisheries-related national and local economies of many tropical developing countries are exposed high climate risks (Section 5.4.2.3.1) (Blasiak et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1567|1567]]</sup> ), as a result of the projected large decrease in maximum catch and revenue potential under RCP8.5 in the 21st century (Section 5.4.1.1). Historical examples from fishery over-exploitation indicate that a large decrease in catches for specific fish stocks have had substantial negative effects for dependent economies and communities (Brierley and Kingsford, 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r1568|1568]]</sup> ; Davis, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1569|1569]]</sup> ). Moreover, coastal economies that are dependent on marine tourism and recreational activities are also exposed to elevated risks from impacts on biota that are important for these sectors (Section 5.4.2.3.2). Nevertheless, new opportunities for coastal tourism may occur in future for some regions as a result of species’ biogeographic shifts (Section 5.4.2.3.2) and increased accessibility, such as in the Arctic (Chapter 3).

Decrease in sea ice in the Arctic is opening up economic opportunities for the oil and gas exploration, mining industries and shipping that are currently important economic sectors in the ocean (Pelletier and Guy, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1570|1570]]</sup> ; George, 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1571|1571]]</sup> ) (Section 3.4.3; 3.5.3). Although the Arctic region has oil and gas reserves estimated to account for one-tenth of world oil and a quarter of global gas ( ''U.S. Geological Survey released on 24 July 2008'' ), offshore oil and gas exploration with poor regulation or as a result of accidents poses additional risk of impacts on species, populations, assemblages, to ecosystems by modifying a variety of ecological parameters (e.g., biodiversity, biomass, and productivity) (Cordes et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1572|1572]]</sup> ) threatening the sensitive Arctic ecosystems and the livelihood of dependent communities (Section 3.5.3.3).

Similarly, global warming and changing weather patterns may have a substantial impact on global trade and transport pathways (Koetse and Rietveld, 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r1573|1573]]</sup> ); for example, the reduction in sea ice in the Arctic Ocean during summer opens up the possibility for sea transport on the Northwest or Northeast Passage for several months per year (Ng et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1574|1574]]</sup> ) (Section 3.5.3.2). Both routes may provide opportunities for more efficient transport between North America, Europe, Russia and China for fleets with established Arctic equipment, and may open up access to known natural resources which have so far been covered by ice (Guy and Lasserre, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1575|1575]]</sup> ). However, whether the Arctic shipping routes will be a realistic alternative depends not only on regulatory frameworks and economic aspects (such as infrastructure and reliability of the routes) but also on societal trends and values, demographics and tourism demand (Prowse et al., 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r1576|1576]]</sup> ; Wassmann et al., 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r1577|1577]]</sup> ; Pelletier and Guy, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1578|1578]]</sup> ; George, 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1579|1579]]</sup> ; Hodgson et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1580|1580]]</sup> ; Pizzolato et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1581|1581]]</sup> ; Dawson, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1582|1582]]</sup> ) (Section 3.2.4.2, 3.4.3.3). Simultaneously, shipping routes through the Arctic pose additional risk from human impact such as pollution, introduction of invasive species and collision with marine mammals, and emission of short-lived climate forcers that can amplify warming in the region and accelerate localised warming (Wan et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1583|1583]]</sup> ) (Section 3.5.3.2).

Existing governance may not be sufficient to limit the elevated risk on Arctic ecosystems and their dependent economies from increased shipping activities (Section 3.4.3, 3.5.3). Climate change may bring new economic opportunities, particularly for polar oil and gas development ( ''medium confidence'' ), shipping ( ''medium confidence'' ) and tourism ( ''low confidence'' ) although realisation of these opportunities will pose uncertain ecological risks to sensitive ecosystems and biota, and the dependent human communities in the region ( ''high confidence'' ).

Ocean renewable energy provides an emerging alternative to fossil fuels and comprises energy extraction from offshore winds, tides, waves, ocean thermal gradients, currents and salinity gradients (Harrison and Wallace, 2005 <sup>[[#fn:r1584|1584]]</sup> ; Koetse and Rietveld, 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r1585|1585]]</sup> ; Bae et al., 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r1586|1586]]</sup> ; Jaroszweski et al., 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r1587|1587]]</sup> ; O Rourke et al., 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r1588|1588]]</sup> ; Hooper and Austen, 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1589|1589]]</sup> ; Kempener and Neumann, 2014b <sup>[[#fn:r1590|1590]]</sup> ; Kempener and Neumann, 2014a <sup>[[#fn:r1591|1591]]</sup> ; Abanades et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1592|1592]]</sup> ; Astariz et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1593|1593]]</sup> ; Borthwick, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1594|1594]]</sup> ; Foteinis and Tsoutsos, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1595|1595]]</sup> ; Manasseh et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1596|1596]]</sup> ; Becker et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1597|1597]]</sup> ; Gattuso et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1598|1598]]</sup> ; Hemer et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1599|1599]]</sup> ; Dinh and McKeogh, 2019b <sup>[[#fn:r1600|1600]]</sup> ; Dinh and McKeogh, 2019a <sup>[[#fn:r1601|1601]]</sup> ). Other potential sources of marine renewable energy include algal biofuels (Greene et al., 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r1602|1602]]</sup> ; Greene et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1603|1603]]</sup> ). While such approaches offers a way to mitigate climate change, changes in climatic conditions (such as waves and winds) may impact marine renewable energy installations and their effectiveness (Harrison and Wallace, 2005 <sup>[[#fn:r1604|1604]]</sup> ). A more comprehensive assessment of these issues is expected to be provided by IPCC WGIII in the AR6 full report.

Overall, some major existing ocean economy sectors such as fishing, coastal tourism and recreation are already at risk by climate change ( ''medium confidence'' ), and all sectors are expected to have elevated risks with high future emission scenarios ( ''high confidence'' ). The emerging demand for alternative energy sources is expected to generate economic opportunities for the ocean renewable energy section ( ''high confidence'' ), although their potential may also be affected by climate change ( ''low confidence'' ).

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