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==== 11.6.3.5 Atmospheric-based Drought Indices ==== <div id="h3-17-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div> A number of studies have analysed the ability of models to capture drought severity and trends based on climatic drought indices. Given the limitations of ESMs in reproducing the dynamic of precipitation deficits and AED (11.6.3.1, 11.6.3.2), atmospheric-based drought indices derived from ESM data for these two variables are also affected by uncertainties and biases. A comparison of historical trends in PDSI-PM for 1950β2014 derived from CMIP3 and CMIP5, with respective estimates derived from observations ( [[#Dai--2017|Dai and Zhao, 2017]] ) show a similar behaviour at global scale (long-term decrease), but low spatial agreement in the trends except in a few regions (Mediterranean, South Asia, north-western USA). In future projections, there is an important spread in PDSI-PM and SPEI-PM among different models ( [[#Cook--2014a|Cook et al., 2014a]] ). <div id="11.6.3.6" class="h3-container"></div> <span id="synthesis-for-different-drought-types-1"></span>
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