Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-2 (section)

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-----

<div id="footnote-013" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-013-backlink|1]] Emissions of GHGs are weighed by global warming potentials with a 100-year time horizon (GWP100) from the Sixth Assessment Report (Forster et al. 2021). GWP100 is commonly used in wide parts of the literature on climate change mitigation and is required for reporting emissions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). All metrics have limitations and uncertainties. (Cross-Chapter Box 2 in [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/chapter/chapter-2 Chapter 2] and Annex II, Part II, Section 8).

<div id="footnote-012" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-012-backlink|2]] In 2019, CO 2 from fossil fuel and industry (FFI) were 38 ± 3.0 Gt, CO 2 from net land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) 6.6 ± 4.6 Gt.

<div id="footnote-011" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-011-backlink|3]] Decent Living Standards (DLS) – a benchmark of material conditions for human well-being – overlaps with many Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Minimum requirements of energy use consistent with enabling well-being for all is between 20 and 50 GJ per capita yr –1 depending on the context. {5.2.2, 5.2.2, Box 5.3, Figure 5.6}

<div id="footnote-010" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-010-backlink|4]] Greenhouse gases are gaseous constituents of the atmosphere that absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, by the atmosphere itself, and by clouds. This property causes the greenhouse effect. Water vapour (H 2 O), carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), methane (CH 4 ), and ozone (O 3 ) are the primary GHGs in the Earth’s atmosphere. Human-made GHGs include sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) '','' hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) '','' chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs); see Annex I: Glossary.

<div id="footnote-009" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-009-backlink|5]] Industrial processes relate to CO 2 releases from fossil fuel oxidation and carbonate decomposition.

<div id="footnote-008" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-008-backlink|6]] Emission metrics also exist for aerosols, but these are not commonly used in climate policy. This assessment focuses on GHG emission metrics only.

<div id="footnote-007" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-007-backlink|7]] For consistency with WGI, uncertainties in this paragraph are reported at a 68% confidence interval. This reflects the difficulty in the WGI context of characterising the uncertainty in the CO 2 fluxes between the atmosphere and the ocean and land reservoirs individually, particularly on an annual basis, as well as the difficulty of updating the emissions from land-use change.

<div id="footnote-006" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-006-backlink|8]] Note that GHG emissions from international aviation and shipping could not be attributed to individual regions, while CO 2 emissions from AFOLU could not be attributed to individual countries. Change in GHG emissions that can be easily assigned to regions is 20.3 of 20.8 GtCO 2 -eq for 1990–2019 and 6.3 of 6.5 GtCO 2 -eq for 2010–2019.

<div id="footnote-005" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-005-backlink|9]] In all cases, constraining countries within the emissions range to those larger than 1 million population.

<div id="footnote-004" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-004-backlink|10]] Note that this does not include the additional warming impacts from aviation due to short-lived climate forcers, which are assessed in [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-10|Chapter 10]] ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.5|Section 10.5]] ).

<div id="footnote-003" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-003-backlink|11]] The decoupling index can be calculated based on changes of a country’s GDP and CO 2 emissions ( [[#Akizu-Gardoki--2018|Akizu-Gardoki et al. 2018]] ; [[#Wu--2018|Wu et al. 2018]] ). See the equation below. DI refers to decoupling index; G 1 refers to the GDP of reporting year while G 0 refers to the base year; E 1 refers to emissions of the reporting year while E 0 refers to emissions of the base year.

<div id="footnote-002" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-002-backlink|12]] This section only reviews the emission impacts of selected policy instruments. Other important aspects such as equity and cost-effectiveness are assessed in Chapter 13, presenting comprehensive evaluations of policies and measures.

<div id="footnote-001" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-001-backlink|13]] Refer to [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-13|Chapter 13]] on policies and institutions for a detailed discussion of emissions leakages and complex interactions from policy mixes.

<div id="footnote-000" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-000-backlink|14]] The OECD (2018) measures carbon prices using the effective carbon rate (ECR), which is the sum of three components: specific taxes on fossil fuels; carbon taxes; and prices of tradable emissions permits. The carbon pricing gap measures the difference between actual ECRs and benchmark rates. The carbon pricing gap indicates the extent to which polluters do not pay for the damage from carbon emissions.

'''Table 2.2 |''' '''Features of six global datasets for consumption-based emissions accounts.'''

{| class="wikitable"
|-
| Name of consumption-based account datasets (and references)

| Years available

| Number of countries/regions

| Number of sectors

|-
| Eora ( [[#Lenzen--2013|Lenzen et al. 2013]] ); ( https://worldmrio.com )

| 1990–2015

| 190

| Varies from 25 to &gt;500

|-
| EXIOBASE ( [[#Stadler--2018|Stadler et al. 2018]] ); ( https://www.exiobase.eu )

| 1995–2016

| 49

| 200 products and 163 industries

|-
| GTAP (Peters, et al. 2011b; [[#Aguiar--2019|Aguiar et al. 2019]] ); ( https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu )

| 2004, 2007, 2011, 2014

| 140

| 57

|-
| OECD/ICIO ( [[#Yamano--2020|Yamano and Guilhoto, 2020]] ); ( http://oe.cd/io-co2 )

| 1995–2015

| 67

| 36

|-
| WIOD ( [[#Dietzenbacher--2013|Dietzenbacher et al. 2013]] ; [[#Timmer--2015|Timmer et al. 2015]] ); ( http://wiod.org )

| 2000–2014

| 44

| 56

|-
| Global Carbon Budget ( [[#Friedlingstein--2020|Friedlingstein et al. 2020]] )

| 1990–2018

| 118

| N/A

|}

'''Table 2.''' '''3|''' '''Country groups with different degree of CBE–GDP decoupling from 2015 to 2018.'''

{| class="wikitable"
|-
| rowspan="2" colspan="2"| Number of countries

| Absolute decoupling

| Relative decoupling

| No decoupling

| Economic recession

|-
| 23

| 67

| 19

| 6

|-
| rowspan="2"| CBEs (gigatonnes)

| Total

| 5.40

| 25.33

| 1.93

| 0.85

|-
| Global share

| 16.1%

| 75.6%

| 5.8%

| 2.5%

|-
| rowspan="2"| PBEs (gigatonnes)

| Total

| 4.84

| 25.73

| 2.16

| 0.84

|-
| Global share

| 14.4%

| 76.6%

| 6.4%

| 2.5%

|-
| rowspan="2"| Population (million)

| Total

| 625

| 5195

| 768

| 270

|-
| Global share

| 9.1%

| 75.7%

| 11.2%

| 3.9%

|-
| rowspan="2"| GDP (billion)

| Total

| 19,891

| 54,240

| 2300

| 2997

|-
| Global share

| 25.0%

| 68.3%

| 2.9%

| 3.8%

|-
| rowspan="4"| Per capita GDP (1000 USD2010)

| Average

| 31.45

| 16.29

| 6.57

| 17.78

|-
| Median

| 23.55

| 8.03

| 2.56

| 13.12

|-
| Max

| 110.70

| 79.23

| 63.93

| 33.11

|-
| Min

| 1.31

| 0.49

| 0.52

| 5.80

|-
| rowspan="4"| Per capita CBEs (tonnes)

| Average

| 10.27

| 5.30

| 4.47

| 12.55

|-
| Median

| 8.87

| 4.13

| 1.67

| 11.33

|-
| Max

| 37.95

| 17.65

| 25.35

| 23.21

|-
| Min

| 0.64

| 0.09

| 0.18

| 2.33

|-
| rowspan="4"| CBE intensity (tonnes per 1000 USD2010)

| Average

| 0.45

| 0.50

| 0.93

| 0.66

|-
| Median

| 0.36

| 0.42

| 0.62

| 0.69

|-
| Max

| 1.16

| 2.41

| 4.10

| 1.22

|-
| Min

| 0.11

| 0.10

| 0.28

| 0.21

|-
| rowspan="4"| Per capita PBEs (tonnes)

| Average

| 8.20

| 4.36

| 5.32

| 14.15

|-
| Median

| 6.79

| 3.02

| 1.19

| 13.22

|-
| Max

| 19.58

| 20.13

| 39.27

| 27.24

|-
| Min

| 0.49

| 0.09

| 0.08

| 2.23

|-
| rowspan="4"| PBE intensity (tonnes per 1000 USD2010)

| Average

| 0.42

| 0.40

| 0.94

| 0.75

|-
| Median

| 0.28

| 0.31

| 0.58

| 0.68

|-
| Max

| 1.57

| 1.47

| 4.83

| 1.80

|-
| Min

| 0.10

| 0.05

| 0.16

| 0.20

|}

Note: CBEs are obtained from the Global Carbon Budget 2020 ( [[#Friedlingstein--2020|Friedlingstein et al. 2020]] ), GDP and population are from the World Bank. One country (Venezuela) does not have GDP data after 2015, so the degree of decoupling was only calculated for 115 countries. This table is modified from [[#Hubacek--2021|Hubacek et al. (2021)]] .

'''Figure 2.25''' ''': Carbon footprints per capita income and expenditure category for 109 countries ranked by per capita income (consumption-based emissions).''' Notes: countries and income categories are dependent on data availability. Light blue dots represent income quintiles (lowest, low, middle, higher, and highest) of EU countries and the USA. Yellow dots are for the developing country group provided by the World Bank for four expenditure categories: lowest, low, middle and higher ( [[#Hubacek--2017b|Hubacek et al. 2017b]] ). Dark blue diamonds represent average per capita carbon footprints. Countries are ranked from the lowest per capita income (bottom) to the highest income (top) within each country group. Countries are grouped using the IPCC’s six high-level classification categories. Footprint values for higher income groups in the World Bank data are less reliable.

'''Table 2.6''' '''| Comparing cumulative future CO''' 2 '''emissions estimates from existing andproposed long-lived infrastructures by sector.''' Future CO 2 emissions estimates are reported from the ‘year of dataset’. Note that, in some cases, the totals may not correspond to the sum of underlying sectors due to rounding (based on [[#Tong--2019|Tong et al. 2019]] ). Initial estimates of future CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel infrastructures by [[#Davis--2010|Davis et al. (2010)]] are considerably lower than more recent estimates by [[#Smith--2019|Smith et al. (2019)]] and [[#Tong--2019|Tong et al. (2019)]] due to substantial growth in fossil energy infrastructure, as represented by more recent data. Estimates presented here are rounded to two significant digits.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
| rowspan="2"|
| colspan="2"| '''Davis et al.'''

'''(2010)'''

| colspan="2"| '''Davis and Socolow'''

'''(2014)'''

| colspan="2"| '''[[#Rozenberg--2015|Rozenberg et al. (2015)]]'''

| colspan="2"| '''[[#Edenhofer--2018|Edenhofer et al. (2018)]]'''

| colspan="2"| '''Pfeiffer et al.'''

'''(2018)'''

| colspan="2"| '''Smith et al.'''

'''(2019)'''

| colspan="2"| '''[[#Tong--2019|Tong et al. (2019)]]'''

| colspan="2"| '''[[#Cui--2019|Cui et al. (2019)]]'''

|-
| GtCO 2

| Year of dataset

| GtCO 2

| Year of dataset

| GtCO 2

| Year of dataset

| GtCO 2

| Year of dataset

| GtCO 2

| Year of dataset

| GtCO 2

| Year of dataset

| GtCO 2

| Year of dataset

| GtCO 2

| Year of dataset

|-
| rowspan="7"| Existing

| Electricity

| 220

| 2009

| 310

| 2012

| –

| –

| –

| –

| 310

| 2016

| 350

(260–450)

| 2009 *

| 360

(240–490)

| 2018

| –

| –

|-
| ''Coal''

|
| 2009

| 210

| 2012

| –

| –

| 190

| 2016

| 220

| 2016

| –

| –

| 260

(180–360)

| 2018

| 340

| 2017

|-
| ''Gas, oil, and other fuels''

|
| 2009

| 100

| 2012

| –

| –

| –

| –

| 88

| 2016

| –

| –

| 98

(65–140)

| 2018

| –

| –

|-
| Industry

| 100

| 2009

|
| –

| –

| –

| –

| –

| –

| 150

(120–190)

| 2009

| 160

(110–220)

| 2017

| –

| –

|-
| Transport

| 120

| 2009

|
| –

| –

| –

| –

| –

| –

| 92

(73–110)

| 2017

| 64

(53–75)

| 2017

| –

| –

|-
| Residential, commercial, and other energy

| 53

| 2009

|
| –

| –

| –

| –

| –

| –

| 120

(91–160)

| 2009 *

| 74

(52–110)

| 2018

| –

| –

|-
| '''All sectors'''

| '''500'''

'''(280–700)'''

|
| '''660'''

'''(''' '''370–890''' ''')'''

| 2013

| –

| –

| –

| –

| '''720'''

'''(550–910)'''

| –

| '''660'''

'''(460–890)'''

| –

| –

| –

|-
| rowspan="3"| Proposed

| Electricity

|
| –

| –

| –

| –

| 270

| 2016

| –

| –

| 190

(140–230)

| 2018

| –

| –

|-
| ''Coal''

|
| –

| –

| 150

| 2016

| 210

| 2016

| –

| –

| 97

(74–120)

| 2018

| 180

| 2017

|-
| ''Gas, oil, and other fuels''

|
| –

| –

| –

| –

| 60

| 2016

| –

| –

| 91

(68–110)

| 2018

| –

| –

|-
| colspan="2"| '''All sectors + proposed electricity'''

|
| '''850'''

'''(6''' '''00–110''' '''0)'''

|
|}

'''Table 2''' '''.7 |''' '''Residual (gross) fossil fuel emissions (GtCO''' 2 ''') in climate change mitigation scenarios strengthening mitigation action after 2020 (‘early strengthening’), compared to scenarios that keep Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) ambition level until 2030 and only strengthen thereafter.''' Cumulative gross CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel and industry until reaching net zero CO 2 emissions are given in terms of the mean as well as minimum and maximum (in parentheses) across seven participating models: AIM/CGE, GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGES, POLES, REMIND, WITCH. Scenario design prescribes a harmonised, global carbon price in line with long-term carbon budget. Delay scenarios follow the same price trajectory, but 10 years later. Carbon dioxide removal requirements represent ex-post calculations that subtract gross fossil fuel emissions from the carbon budget associated with the respective long-term warming limit. We take the carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C with a 50% probability and to 2°C with a 67% probability (Canadell et al. 2021). Hence, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) requirements reflect a minimum amount of CDR for a given mitigation trajectory. Results are reported at two significant digits. Sources: [[#Luderer--2018|Luderer et al. (2018)]] ; [[#Tong--2019|Tong et al. (2019)]] .

{| class="wikitable"
|-
| colspan="4"| '''Future CO''' 2 '''emissions from existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructure (accounting studies)'''

|
| colspan="6"| '''Residual fossil fuel emissions – cumulative gross CO''' 2 '''emissions from fossil fuel and industry until reaching net zero CO''' 2 '''emissions (in GtCO''' 2 ''')'''

|-
| rowspan="2" colspan="2"|
| colspan="2"| [[#Tong--2019|Tong et al. (2019)]]

|
| colspan="2"| Early strengthening from (2020)

| colspan="2"| Delayed strengthening from 2030

|-
| GtCO 2

| Year

|
| Well below 2°C

| Below 1.5°C in 2100

| Well below 2°C

| Below 1.5°C in 2100

|-
| rowspan="2"| Existing and proposed

| Electricity

| 550

(380–730)

| 2018

|
| rowspan="7"| Existing AND future instalments

| Electricity

| 180

(140–310)

| 130

(90–160)

| 250

(220–340)

| 200

(190–230)

|-
| Non-electric supply

|
| Non-electric supply

| 100

(42–130)

| 59

(27–83)

| 120

(55–150)

| 75

(40–100)

|-
| rowspan="5"| Existing

| Industry

| 160

(110–220)

| 2017

|
| Industry

| 260

(160–330)

| 140

(86–180)

| 290

(200–370)

| 200

(130–250)

|-
| Transportation

| 64

(53–75)

| 2017

|
| Transportation

| 310

(190–370)

| 170

(110–220)

| 310

(250–400)

| 200

(140–260)

|-
| Buildings

| 74

(52–110)

| 2018

|
| Buildings

| 110

(75–110)

| 58

(35–77)

| 120

(80–150)

| 73

(51–93)

|-
| rowspan="2"| All sectors and proposed electricity

| rowspan="2"| 850

(600–1100)

| rowspan="2"|
|
| All sectors (2021 – net zero CO 2 )

| 960

(730–1100)

| 570

(400–640)

| 1100

(900–1200)

| 770

(590–860)

|-
|
| All sectors (2021–2100)

| 1300

(970–1500)

| 850

(650–1100)

| 1400

(1200–1600)

| 1000

(860–1300)

|-
|
| ''Implied minimum requirement for carbon dioxide removal until 2100''

| 150

(0–350)

| 350

(150–600)

| 250

(50–450)

| 500

(360–800)

|}