Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-3 (section)

=== 3.7.2 Food ===

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The goal of SDG 2 is to achieve ‘zero-hunger’ by 2030. According to the UN (2015), over 25% of the global population currently experience food insecurity and nearly 40% of these experience severe food insecurity, a situation worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic ( [[#Paslakis--2021|Paslakis et al. 2021]] ).

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==== 3.7.2.1 Benefits of Avoided Climate Impacts Along Mitigation Pathways ====

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Climate change will reduce crop yields, increase food insecurity, and negatively influence nutrition and mortality ( ''high confidence'' ) (AR6 WGII Chapter 5). Climate mitigation will thus reduce these impacts, and hence reduce food insecurity ( ''high confidence'' ). The yield reduction of global food production will increase food insecurity and influence nutrition and mortality ( [[#Hasegawa--2014|Hasegawa et al. 2014]] ; [[#Springmann--2016a|Springmann et al. 2016a]] ). For instance, [[#Springmann--2016a|Springmann et al. (2016a)]] estimate that climate change could lead to 315,000–736,000 additional deaths by 2050, though these could mostly be averted by stringent mitigation efforts. Reducing warming reduces the impacts of climate change, including extreme climates, on food production and risk of hunger ( [[#Hasegawa--2014|Hasegawa et al. 2014]] , 2021b).

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==== 3.7.2.2 Implications of Mitigation Efforts Along Pathways ====

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Recent studies explore the effect of climate change mitigation on agricultural markets and food security ( [[#Havlík--2014|Havlík et al. 2014]] ; [[#Hasegawa--2018|Hasegawa et al. 2018]] ; [[#Doelman--2019|Doelman et al. 2019]] ; [[#Fujimori--2019|Fujimori et al. 2019]] ). Mitigation policies aimed at achieving 1.5°C–2°C, if not managed properly, could negatively affect food security through changes in land and food prices ( ''high confidence'' ), leading to increases in the population at risk of hunger by 80–280 million people compared to baseline scenarios. These studies assume uniform carbon prices on AFOLU sectors (with some sectoral caps) and do not account for climate impacts on food production.

Mitigating climate change while ensuring that food security is not adversely affected requires a range of different strategies and interventions ( ''high confidence'' ). [[#Fujimori--2018|Fujimori et al. (2018)]] explore possible economic solutions to these unintended impacts of mitigation (e.g., agricultural subsidies, food aid, and domestic reallocation of income) with an additional small (&lt;0.1%) change in global GDP. Targeted food-security support is needed to shield impoverished and vulnerable people from the risk of hunger that could be caused by the economic effects of policies narrowly focussed on climate objectives. Introducing more biofuels and careful selection of bioenergy feedstocks could also reduce negative impacts (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO, 2017). Reconciling bioenergy demands with food and biodiversity, as well as competition for land and water, will require changes in food systems – agricultural intensification, open trade, less consumption of animal products and reduced food losses – and advanced biotechnologies ( [[#Henry--2018|Henry et al. 2018]] ; [[#Xu--2019|Xu et al. 2019]] ).

There are many other synergistic measures for climate mitigation and food security. Agricultural technological innovation can improve the efficiency of land use and food systems, thus reducing the pressure on land from increasing food demand ( [[#Foley--2011|Foley et al. 2011]] ; [[#Popp--2014|Popp et al. 2014]] ; [[#Obersteiner--2016|Obersteiner et al. 2016]] ; [[#Humpenöder--2018|Humpenöder et al. 2018]] ; [[#Doelman--2019|Doelman et al. 2019]] ). Furthermore, decreasing consumption of animal products could contribute to SDG 3.4 by reducing the risk of non-communicable diseases ( [[#Garnett--2016|Garnett 2016]] ).

Taken together, climate changes will reduce crop yields, increase food insecurity and influence nutrition and mortality ( ''high confidence'' ) (see 3.7.2.1). However, if measures are not properly designed, mitigating climate change will also negatively impact on food consumption and security. Additional solutions to negative impacts associated with climate mitigation on food production and consumption include a transition to a sustainable agriculture and food system that is less resource intensive, more resilient to a changing climate, and in line with biodiversity and social targets ( [[#Kayal--2019|Kayal et al. 2019]] ).

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