Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-6 (section)

=== 6.6.4 Regional Circumstances and Net-zero Energy Systems ===

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Countries have flexibility to pursue options that make themost sense for their national circumstances (Figure 6.25). They may emphasise supply transformation over demand reduction; deploy different resources; engage at different levels in international energy trade; support different energy industries; focus on different energy carriers (e.g., electricity, hydrogen); or focus more on distributed or integrated systems, among others. Many factors may influence the long-term net-zero energy systems that are appropriate for any country’s national circumstances, including the following.

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[[File:417b9061006ec547d720dfd37fa8bf0b IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Figure_6_25.png]]

'''Figure 6.25 | Characteristics of regional energy systems and emissions when global energy and industrial CO''' 2 '''emissions reach net-zero.''' Regional differences are shown for: '''(a)''' residual emissions and carbon removal; '''(b)''' energy resources; '''(c)''' electrification; and '''(d)''' energy intensity. Distributions of scenarios are shown along each axis for each region. Colour scheme is shown in (a). Points represent individual scenarios from the AR6 Scenarios Database (R6 regions dataset).

'''Future technology.''' Technological transitions have often been driven by the relative merits of different technology options. Recent trends in the use of PV cells, wind power, and in batteries, for example, have been spurred by their increasing economic competitiveness ( [[#6.3|Section 6.3]] ). Yet future technology cannot be fully predicted, so it provides only a partial guide today for charting a path toward future systems.

'''Indigenous energy resources''' . Countries may emphasise approaches that take advantage of indigenous energy resources such as solar power, wind, hydroelectric resources, land for bioenergy crops, CO 2 storage capability, or fossil resources to be used with CCS. Countries with less abundant resources may put greater emphasis on demand reductions and regional integration. Countries with resource bases that are easily tradeable, like low-carbon electricity or bioenergy, may choose to trade those resources rather than use them domestically (Box 6.10, [[#6.4.3|Section 6.4.3]] , 6.4.5).

'''Regional climate''' . Climate influences heating and cooling demand, both of which influence countries’ energy demands and energy infrastructure to meet those demands ( [[#6.5|Section 6.5]] ). In addition to daily demand profiles, heating and cooling are seasonal, influencing which energy sources may serve these loads and the seasonal storage they require. Cooling is almost entirely served by electricity today, and heating has commonly been served by non-electric fuels. In low-carbon energy systems, heating may be increasingly served by electricity ( [[#6.6.4|Section 6.6.4]] ), meaning that the influence of regional climate may be strongest on countries’ electricity systems.

'''Current energy system configuration''' . Future sectoral energy demands and the potential for demand-side transformation are partially determined by existing infrastructure (e.g., building stocks, transport infrastructure). Countries with less developed or growing energy systems will have more flexibility to create the systems that best match their long-term goals, but there may be substantial challenges in transitioning directly to the most advanced low-carbon technology options, and countries may have different capacities to absorb technology from other countries.

'''Regional integration.''' Regional integration will allow countries to bridge energy gaps using external linkages, including regional electricity integration and trade in hydrogen, biomass, and other fuels. Countries with greater integration can rely more heavily on imports and may therefore rely less on indigenous resources (Box 6.10).

'''Societal preferences.''' Citizens in every country have preferences for certain technological options or mitigation approaches over others that will influence energy system choices. The public generally prefers a future energy system based largely on renewables. Preferences for non-renewable energy differ across regions and groups. For example, studies have found that people in the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland prefer renewable energy and personal energy efficiency and savings to nuclear, fossil fuels and CCS ( [[#Jones--2012|Jones et al. 2012]] ; [[#Scheer--2013|Scheer et al. 2013]] ; [[#Demski--2017|Demski et al. 2017]] ; [[#Bessette--2018|Bessette and Arvai 2018]] ; [[#Steg--2018|Steg 2018]] ; [[#Volken--2018|Volken et al. 2018]] ). Studies have found that people with higher education levels, higher incomes, females, and liberals prefer renewables to fossil fuels and nuclear ( [[#Van%20Rijnsoever--2015|Van Rijnsoever et al. 2015]] ; [[#Bertsch--2016|Bertsch et al. 2016]] ; [[#Blumer--2018|Blumer et al. 2018]] ; [[#Jobin--2019|Jobin et al. 2019]] ). The willingness to pay for renewable electricity differs by source ( [[#Ma--2015|Ma et al. 2015]] ; [[#Sundt--2015|Sundt and Rehdanz 2015]] ).

'''Technological leadership, economic opportunities, and growth.''' Countries may emphasise technologies in which they intend to have technological leadership and a competitive advantage. These could emerge over time or be based on current areas of opportunity or leadership. Industrial policy will influence future energy system as technological choices can benefit or hamper incumbents or new market actors.

'''Energy security.''' Countries emphasising import security will tend to rely more heavily on indigenous resources ( [[#6.3|Section 6.3]] ). Some indigenous resources may raise security of supply issues that will influence energy system configurations. Bioenergy and hydropower, for example, can be subject to import climate risks ( [[#6.5|Section 6.5]] ), and significant integration of VRE technologies will influence electricity system infrastructure and management ( [[#6.6.2|Section 6.6.2]] , Box 6.8).

'''Other factors.''' Countries will consider a wide range of other factors in building toward low-carbon energy systems. Population density, for example, will influence building and transportation energy demands; economic transitions will influence industrial energy demands. Societal priorities beyond climate, notably SDGs may influence technology choices and types of energy systems (Sections 6.3 and 6.7.7).

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