Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-11 (section)

==== 11.6.3.6 Synthesis for Different Drought Types ====

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The performance of ESMs used to assessed changes in variables related to meteorological droughts, agricultural and ecological droughts, and hydrological droughts, shows the presence of biases and uncertainties compared to observations, but there is ''medium confidence'' in their overall performance for assessing drought projections given process understanding. Given the substantial inter-model spread documented for all related variables, the consideration of multi-model projections increases the confidence of model-based assessments, with only ''low confidence'' in assessments based on single models.

In summary, the evaluation of ESMs, land surface and hydrological models for the simulation of droughts is complex, due to the regional scale of drought trends, their overall low signal-to-noise ratio, and the lack of observations in several regions, in particular for soil moisture and streamflow. There is ''medium confidence'' in the ability of ESMs to simulate trends and anomalies in precipitation deficits and AED, and also ''medium confidence'' in the ability of ESMs and hydrological models to simulate trends and anomalies in soil moisture and streamflow deficits, on global and regional scales.

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