Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

== 5.7 Other Natural Products ==

<div id="h1-8-siblings" class="h1-siblings"></div>

Natural products such as medicinal plants, wild food (plants, animals, mushrooms) and resins (e.g., gum arabic and frankincense) have high commercial value and contribute an important source of livelihood in some regions. One in six persons globally live in or near forests, and many depend on forest resources for some of their livelihood and needs, particularly in low- and middle-income countries ( [[#Vira--2016|Vira et al., 2016]] ; [[#Newton--2020|Newton et al., 2020]] ). The FAO has estimated that in 2011 non-wood forest products, including medicinal plants, contributed over 88 billion USD to the global economy ( [[#FAO--2014|FAO, 2014]] ). Greater diversity in local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge of natural resources supports resilience in the face of hazards, especially in environments with high levels of uncertainty ( [[#Berkes--2003|Berkes et al., 2003]] ; [[#Blanco--2016|Blanco and Carriere, 2016]] ).

<div id="5.7.1" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="medicinal-plants"></span>
=== 5.7.1 Medicinal Plants ===

<div id="h2-19-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

The World Health Organization lists traditional medicine as an essential component of culturally appropriate healthcare ( [[#WHO--2013|WHO, 2013]] ). Medicinal plants make up the primary source of medicine for 70–95% of people in low- and middle-income countries and are used widely in wealthier countries ( [[#Applequist--2020|Applequist et al., 2020]] ). Continued use of medicinal plants ensures millions of rural people have access to effective treatments for day-to-day illness and infection and thus improves their health and resilience to climate change.

Indigenous Peoples largely depend on medicinal plants for their healthcare need in different parts of the world ( [[#de%20Boer--2014|de Boer and Cotingting, 2014]] ; [[#Silva--2020|Silva et al., 2020]] ). Medicinal and aromatic plants can support the economy and generate livelihood options for rural people through preparing and selling traditional medicine; collecting from wild; and trade for income generation ( [[#Fajinmi--2017|Fajinmi et al., 2017]] ; [[#Zahra--2020|Zahra et al., 2020]] ). Income from medicinal plant collection increases livelihood diversification, which is widely accepted to improve resilience.

<div id="5.7.2" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="resin-and-gum"></span>
=== 5.7.2 Resin and Gum ===

<div id="h2-20-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

Resin and gum are economically important natural products, contributing 14–23% total household income in parts of Ethiopia and Sudan ( [[#Abtew--2014|Abtew et al., 2014]] ; [[#Fikir--2016|Fikir et al., 2016]] ), Cambodia (Sakkhamduang et al.) and India ( [[#Tewari--2017|Tewari et al., 2017]] ). They are an important source of raw material for many industries. For instance, in Africa, the genera ''Boswellia'' and ''Commiphora'' , which provide frankincense and myrrh resins, provide significant income generation and export value ( [[#Tilahun--2015|Tilahun et al., 2015]] ). Populations of many species that provide gums and resins are declining under pressure from unsustainable harvesting and deforestation, and climate change may threaten them further.

In Sri Lanka, ''Boswellia serrata'' Roxb. is critically endangered or possibly extinct (Weerakoon and Wijesundara 2012). In India, ''B. serrata'' populations are ‘vulnerable’ ( [[#Chaubey--2015|Chaubey et al., 2015]] ; [[#Brendler--2018|Brendler et al., 2018]] ), and declining in the Western Ghats ( [[#Soumya--2019|Soumya et al., 2019]] ). Invasion of ''Lantana camara'' and ''Prosopis juliflora'' has resulted in poor regeneration of ''Commiphorawightii'' in central India ( [[#Jain--2013|Jain and Nadgauda, 2013]] ). Other resin-producing species under threat include: ''Daemonoropsdraco'' (dragon’s blood resin) in Indonesia ( [[#Yetty--2013|Yetty et al., 2013]] ; [[#Widianingsih--2019|Widianingsih et al., 2019]] ), ''Pinus merkusii'' (tusam) in Sumatra (Indonesia) ( [[#Hartiningtias--2020|Hartiningtias et al., 2020]] ), ''Pinus pinaster'' in Spain, ''Pinus massoniana'' in China ( [[#Génova--2014|Génova et al., 2014]] ; [[#Chen--2015b|Chen et al., 2015b]] ) and ''Pistacia atlantica'' in Iran ( [[#Yousefi--2020|Yousefi et al., 2020]] ).

<div id="5.7.3" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="wild-foods"></span>

=== 5.7.3 Wild Foods ===

<div id="h2-21-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

Wild foods can include both native and introduced species that are not cultivated or reared but may be under various degrees of management by humans and may include escapees of species that are cultivated in some contexts ( [[#Powell--2015|Powell et al., 2015]] ). Information on the use and importance of wild foods for nutrition is growing but remains limited ( [[#FAO--2019e|FAO, 2019e]] ). The AR4 covered wild food briefly in the polar regions and noted the inter-related nature of climate change and Indigenous knowledge loss in reducing access to wild food ( [[#Anisimov--2001|Anisimov et al., 2001]] ). AR5 did not address wild foods and other natural products. There is large variation in the importance of wild foods ( [[#Powell--2015|Powell et al., 2015]] ; [[#Rowland--2017|Rowland et al., 2017]] ; [[#Dop--2020|Dop et al., 2020]] ). A recent survey of 91 countries found that 15 reported regular use of wild foods by most of the population, and 26 reported regular use of wild foods by a subsection of the population ( [[#FAO--2019e|FAO, 2019e]] ). While they contribute little to food energy intake, their contribution to nutrition can be significant because most wild and forest foods (vegetables, fruits, mushrooms, insects and meat) are rich in proteins and micronutrients ( [[#Powell--2015|Powell et al., 2015]] ). The impacts of climate change on wild foods will vary in time and space and among species.

<div id="5.7.4" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="observed-and-projected-impacts"></span>
=== 5.7.4 Observed and Projected Impacts ===

<div id="h2-22-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

<div id="5.7.4.1" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="medicinal-plants-1"></span>
==== 5.7.4.1 Medicinal plants ====

<div id="h3-34-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

Research is limited on the effects of climate change on the distribution, productivity or availability of medicinal plants ( [[#Applequist--2020|Applequist et al., 2020]] ), but some are facing threats due to climate change ( [[#Phanxay--2015|Phanxay et al., 2015]] ; [[#Chirwa--2017|Chirwa et al., 2017]] ; [[#Chitale--2018|Chitale et al., 2018]] ). Climate change is projected to impact some medicinal plant species through changes in temperature, precipitation, pests and pathogens; unsustainable harvest of high-value species will significantly exacerbate these impacts ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ) ( [[#Applequist--2020|Applequist et al., 2020]] ). Table 5.9 highlights that climate change impacts on medicinal plant species will vary greatly by species. Medicinal plants that grow in arid environments are also highly susceptible to climate-induced change ( [[#Applequist--2020|Applequist et al., 2020]] ). Arctic medicinal species may also be particularly at risk due to climate change ( [[#Cavaliere--2009|Cavaliere, 2009]] ).

'''Table 5.9 |''' Observed and predicted impacts of climate change on selected medicinal plant species.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Region

! Species

! Observed and projected impacts of climate change

! Assessment of evidence and level of agreement

|-
| Egypt, Sub-Saharan Africa, Spain, Central Himalaya, China, Nepal

| General assessment of medicinal plants

| Habitat suitability and/or range distribution will shift or may be lost ( [[#Munt--2016|Munt et al., 2016]] ; [[#Yan--2017|Yan et al., 2017]] ; [[#Brunette--2018|Brunette et al., 2018]] ; [[#Chitale--2018|Chitale et al., 2018]] ; [[#Zhao--2018|Zhao et al., 2018]] ; [[#Applequist--2020|Applequist et al., 2020]] ), including in high-elevation meadows which are home to some of the most threatened plant populations and contain a high number of and higher proportion of species used as medicine compared with lower-elevation habitats ( [[#Salick--2009|Salick et al., 2009]] ; [[#Brandt--2013|Brandt et al., 2013]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Hindukush Himalaya

| ''Gynostemmapentaphyllum''

| The elevated CO 2 and temperature can increase biomass, but the health-promoting properties such as total antioxidants, phenols and flavonoids are expected to decrease ( [[#Chang--2016|Chang et al., 2016]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Arctic

| Golden root ( ''R'' ''hodiola rosea)''

| Population decline has been associated with drying of stream beds and alpine meadows, which are predicted to become more severe under climate change

( [[#Cavaliere--2009|Cavaliere, 2009]] ; [[#Brinkman--2016|Brinkman et al., 2016]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| North America

| American ginseng ( ''P'' ''anax quinquefolius'' )

| Modelling of the combined impact of climate change (warming) and harvesting pressure indicates a nonlinear increase in extinction risk ( [[#Souther--2014|Souther and McGraw, 2014]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Asia

| ''Gentiana rigescens''

| A model evaluating future climate impacts shows a westward range shift and major loss of highly suitable habitats. Modelling also shows a potential decline in quality (chemical concentration of iridoid glycoside, which is highest in highly suitable habitats) due to climate change ( [[#Shen--2021|Shen et al., 2021]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Africa

| ''Alstoniaboonei''

| Modelling indicates that the range for this species remains relatively stable, with a possible modest expansion at the northern and southern margins of the range ( [[#Asase--2019|Asase and Peterson, 2019]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Asia

| ''Homonoia riparia''

| Modelling of future climate scenarios in Yunnan Province, China projects that habitat suitability improves ( [[#Yi--2016|Yi et al., 2016]] ). Modelling of future climate scenarios across the whole species range in China shows that both the suitable area and suitability of the habitat increase ( [[#Yi--2018|Yi et al., 2018]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Asia

| ''Notopterygiumincisum''

| Modelling for future climate change shows areas of suitable habitat will significantly decrease; however, the area of marginally suitable habitat will remain relatively stable ( [[#Zhao--2020|Zhao et al., 2020]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Himalayas

| Himalayan yew ''Taxus wallichiana''

| Modelling shows projected shrink in climatic niche of the species by 28% (RCP4.5) and 31% (RCP8.5), highlighting the vulnerability to climate change impacts ( [[#Rathore--2019|Rathore et al., 2019]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Iran

| ''Daphne mucronata''

| Modelling of future climate change projects disappearance of the species below 2000 m, significant change in distribution between 2000 and 3000 m and no change above 3000 m ( [[#Abolmaali--2018|Abolmaali et al., 2018]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Central America

| Pericón or Mexican Mint Marigold

''Tagetes lucida''

| Models predict range to contract somewhat and shift northward ( [[#Kurpis--2019|Kurpis et al., 2019]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Africa

| Rooibos tea ''Aspalathus linearis''

| Modelling of future climate scenarios shows substantial range contraction of both wild and cultivated tea, with range shifts southeastwards and upslope ( [[#Lotter--2014|Lotter and Maitre, 2014]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Himalayas

| ''Lilium polyphyllum''

| Habitats of this species will shrink by 38–81% under future climate scenarios and shift towards the southeast region in Western Himalaya, India ( [[#Dhyani--2021|Dhyani et al., 2021]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Iran

| ''Fritillaria imperialis''

| Modelling shows 18% and 16.5% of the habitats may be lost due to climate change by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Further, it is observed that, under the current climatic conditions, the suitable habitat may become unsuitable in the future, resulting in local extinction ( [[#Naghipour%20Borj--2019|Naghipour Borj et al., 2019]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Himalayas/ China

| Snow lotus ( ''Saussurea spp'' ''.'' )

| Climate change is a significant threat to this species ( [[#Law--2005|Law and Salick, 2005]] ). Laboratory and field trials show considerable plasticity and a wide thermal range for germination, which may help compensate for range reductions under climate change ( [[#Peng--2019|Peng et al., 2019]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| North Africa

| Atlas cedar ''Cedrus atlantica''

| Modelling shows a significant and rapid contraction of distribution range, upward elevational range shift, increased fragmentation, and possible disappearance in many North African localities ( [[#Bouahmed--2019|Bouahmed et al., 2019]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Asia/South Korea

| ''Paeonia obovata''

| Modelling of climate change scenarios shows significant loss of suitable habitat and possible disappearance of ''P. obovatain'' in South Korea after 2080 ( [[#Jeon--2020|Jeon et al., 2020]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Iran

| ''Salvia hydrangea''

| A projected loss of habitat in the southeast of the range will not be compensated by the northward or upward elevational range migration (Ardestani and Ghahfarrokhi, 2021).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Patagonian, Argentina

| ''Valeriana carnosa''

| Modelling for future climate scenarios projects a 22% loss of the suitable habitat ( [[#Nagahama--2020|Nagahama and Bonino, 2020]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Western Ghats, India

| Kokum

''Garcinia indica''

| Predictions of climate change impact on habitat suitability indicate drastic reduction in the suitability by over 10% under RCP8.5 for the years 2050 and 2070 ( [[#Pramanik--2018|Pramanik et al., 2018]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Himalaya

| ''Ophiocordyceps sinensis''

| A decline of the species is largely due to over harvesting, but ecological modelling indicates that climate warming is also contributing to this decline ( [[#Hopping--2018|Hopping et al., 2018]] ).

| ''High confidence''

|-
| Pacific islands

| Noni ( ''Morindacitrifoli'' ), naupaka ( ''Scaevola spp'' .), kukui ( ''Aleurites moluccana'' ) and milo ( ''Thespesia populnea'' )

| May be less susceptible to climate change as they are fast growing, have high reproduction rates, grow at sea level (and are often salt-tolerant) and have significant room for range shifts ( [[#Cavaliere--2009|Cavaliere, 2009]] ).

| ''Low confidence''

|}

Changes in range distribution will interact with detailed local knowledge and Indigenous knowledge needed to harvest and use medicinal plants. Northward range shifts, for example, may mean certain plants still exist, but not where they have traditionally been important as medicine, and possibly moving suitable ranges outside of areas where plants species have sufficient protection ( [[#Kaky--2017|Kaky and Gilbert, 2017]] ). Climate-induced phenological changes are already observed as a threat to some species ( [[#Gaira--2014|Gaira et al., 2014]] ; [[#Maikhuri--2018|Maikhuri et al., 2018]] ). Other major climate-induced impacts on medicinal plants will be via the phytochemical content and pharmacological properties of medical plants ( [[#Gairola--2010|Gairola et al., 2010]] ; [[#Das--2016a|Das et al., 2016a]] ). Experimental trials have shown that drought stresses increase phytochemical content, either by decreasing biomass or increasing metabolites production ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Selmar--2013|Selmar and Kleinwachter, 2013]] ; [[#Al-Gabbiesh--2015|Al-Gabbiesh et al., 2015]] ).

<div id="5.7.4.2" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="wild-food"></span>
==== 5.7.4.2 Wild food ====

<div id="h3-35-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

<div id="5.7.4.2.1" class="h4-container"></div>

<span id="wild-food-in-the-arctic-north-america-and-europe"></span>
===== 5.7.4.2.1 Wild food in the Arctic, North America and Europe =====

<div id="h4-4-siblings" class="h4-siblings"></div>

Changes to the availability, abundance, access and storage of wild foods associated with changing climate are exacerbating high rates of food insecurity ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ford--2009|Ford, 2009]] ; [[#Beaumier--2010|Beaumier and Ford, 2010]] ; [[#Herman-Mercer--2019|Herman-Mercer et al., 2019]] ). Wild foods are central to the food systems of communities throughout the Arctic and sub-Arctic ( [[#Kuhnlein--1996|Kuhnlein et al., 1996]] ; [[#Ballew--2006|Ballew et al., 2006]] ; [[#Kuhnlein--2007|Kuhnlein and Receveur, 2007]] ; [[#Johnson--2009|Johnson et al., 2009]] ) and play an essential role in people’s physical and emotional health (Section [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/5#CCP6.2.5 CCP6.2.5] ; 2.8) ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Loring--2009|Loring and Gerlach, 2009]] ; [[#Cunsolo%20Willox--2012|Cunsolo Willox et al., 2012]] ). Wild foods consumed in the Arctic and northern regions include animals and a wide variety of plant foods ( [[#Wein--1996|Wein et al., 1996]] ; [[#Ballew--2006|Ballew et al., 2006]] ; [[#Kuhnlein--2007|Kuhnlein and Receveur, 2007]] ). Wild foods contribute most of important nutrients in the diets of northern and Arctic people ( [[#Johnson--2009|Johnson et al., 2009]] ; [[#Wesche--2010|Wesche and Chan, 2010]] ; [[#Kenny--2018|Kenny et al., 2018]] ). However, the use of traditional wild foods is declining across the region, lowering diet quality ( [[#Rosol--2016|Rosol et al., 2016]] ). Indigenous communities in the Arctic perceive climate change related impacts on traditional wild foods, and availability and access to wild foods are forecast to continue to decline ( [[#Brinkman--2016|Brinkman et al., 2016]] ). Some communities hold positive views of the new opportunities a warmer climate will bring, seeing them as a favourable trade-off relative to the loss of some forms of subsistence hunting ( [[#Nuttall--2009|Nuttall, 2009]] ). Climate change is causing ecological changes that impact Arctic wild food availability and abundance in many different ways, including changes to breeding success, migration patterns and food webs (Table 5.10, [[#Markon--2018|Markon et al., 2018]] ).

'''Table 5.10 |''' Observed and predicted impacts of climate change on selected wild food species.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Region

! Species

! Observed and projected impacts of climate change

! Assessment of evidence and level of agreement

|-
| Arctic region

| Ringed seals

( ''Pusahispida'' )

| Drastic declines in population size and major changes in population structure ( [[#Hammill--2009|Hammill, 2009]] ; [[#Reimer--2019|Reimer et al., 2019]] ); habitat (dependent on snow cover or ice breathing holes for lairs) will decline by approximately 70%, and significantly reduce survival rates of pups ( [[#Freitas--2008|Freitas et al., 2008]] ).

| ''High confidence''

|-
| Arctic region

| Bearded seal ( ''Erignathus barbatus'' )

| Climate change affects the availability and stability of at least 11 ice-associated species, including bearded seal. Potential impacts due to climate change will reduce available habitat for birthing ( [[#Moore--2008|Moore and Huntington, 2008]] ; [[#Fink--2017|Fink, 2017]] ).

| ''Medium evidence'' , ''high agreement''

|-
| Arctic region

| Walrus

( ''Odobenus rosmarus'' )

| Declines in the climate-vulnerable Pacific walrus populations, induced by overharvesting ( [[#Taylor--2018|Taylor et al., 2018]] ); however, the species is considered highly vulnerable to loss of sea ice ( [[#Lydersen--2018|Lydersen, 2018]] ). Possible diet changes (related to climate-induced changes in food web) raise concerns about the health of the population ( [[#Clark--2019|Clark et al., 2019]] ).

| ''High confidence''

|-
| Arctic region

| Narwhal

( ''Monodon monoceros'' )

| The impacts of climate change on other sea ice-associated marine mammals are somewhat less clear ( [[#Moor--2017|Moor et al., 2017]] ). Climate change may threaten narwhal given their vulnerability to ice entrapment ( [[#Laidre--2005|Laidre and Heide-Jorgensen, 2005]] ) and the narrow range of prey in their diet ( [[#Heide-Jørgensen--2018|Heide-Jørgensen, 2018]] ). In Greenland, hunters report that narwhal now frequent fjords and other areas where manoeuvring a boat is difficult ( [[#Nuttall--2017|Nuttall, 2017]] ).

| ''Low evidence'' , ''medium agreement''

|-
| Arctic region

| Beluga

( ''Delphinapterus leucas'' )

| Belugas are thought to be less sensitive to climate change than some other sea mammals but can perish in large groups from ice entrapment. Climate impacts likely increased human activity (noise) ( [[#O’Corry-Crowe--2009|O’Corry-Crowe, 2009]] ). Changes in migrating timing have been documented ( [[#Hsiang--2017|Hsiang et al., 2017]] ).

| ''Low evidence'' , ''low agreement''

|-
| Arctic region

| Bowhead

( ''Balaena mysticetus'' )

| The movements of some whale species are linked to SSTs ( [[#Moore--2008|Moore and Huntington, 2008]] ; [[#Chambault--2018|Chambault et al., 2018]] ). Some whale hunting communities are now reporting that whales pass by at a time of year when launching boats is impaired by rough weather and poor sea ice conditions ( [[#Noongwook--2007|Noongwook et al., 2007]] ; [[#Huntington--2017|Huntington et al., 2017]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Arctic region

| Other sea ice associated marine mammals (harp seal, hooded seal)

| The impacts of climate change on other sea ice associated marine mammals are somewhat less clear ( [[#Moor--2017|Moor et al., 2017]] ).

| ''Low confidence''

|-
| Arctic and northern regions

| Reindeer and caribou

( ''Rangifer tarandus'' )

| Large herbivores are highly dependent on their food sources such as mosses, lichens and grasses which are sensitive to climate change ( [[#Istomin--2016|Istomin and Habeck, 2016]] ).

Combined impacts of climate change and other inter-related factors suggest significant declines in caribou and reindeer populations, although to varying extents from one population to another ( [[#Kenny--2018|Kenny et al., 2018]] ; [[#Mallory--2018|Mallory and Boyce, 2018]] ).

Warming has led to increased plant productivity and associated increases in body mass of some reindeer populations ( [[#Albon--2017|Albon et al., 2017]] ; [[#Mallory--2018|Mallory and Boyce, 2018]] ).

Increasing primary production, warming will also change the plant composition, leading to increases in woody/shrubby vegetation which will have negative nutritional consequences for caribou and reindeer ( [[#Elmendorf--2012|Elmendorf et al., 2012]] ; [[#Mallory--2018|Mallory and Boyce, 2018]] ). The loss of lichens, a key winter food source, due to increased wildfire or replacement by grasses and herbs that die back in the winter, may also be detrimental to caribou and reindeer, although there is currently no consensus on this among experts ( [[#Mallory--2018|Mallory and Boyce, 2018]] ).

Rain on snow and icing events during winter, which are predicted to become more frequent, have been documented to lead to large increases in arctic herbivore mortality because they create an ice barrier making access to food more difficult ( [[#Putkonen--2003|Putkonen and Roe, 2003]] ; [[#Tyler--2010|Tyler, 2010]] ; [[#Stien--2012|Stien et al., 2012]] ; [[#Hansen--2013|Hansen et al., 2013]] ; [[#Forbes--2016|Forbes et al., 2016]] ). Rain-on-snow events may also impact reproductive success, although recent research suggests this relationship in not straightforward ( [[#Douhard--2016|Douhard et al., 2016]] ).

Increased summer insect harassment is also predicted to increase and further stress large herbivores both by the additional parasitic load and by decreasing the amount of time spent grazing as animals seek to outrun pests ( [[#Mallory--2018|Mallory and Boyce, 2018]] ).

Finally, many caribou and reindeer populations rely on sea and freshwater ice to facilitate their movement and migration; loss of ice may make some populations no longer viable ( [[#Mallory--2018|Mallory and Boyce, 2018]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Arctic and northern regions

| Moose ( ''Alces alces'' )

| The distributional changes of ''Rangifer'' populations might be affected by the range expansions and the northward expansion of moose ( [[#Mallory--2018|Mallory and Boyce, 2018]] ). This is due to increases in productivity on the tundra and more frequent wildfire activity resulting in improved habitat quality for moose northward.

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| North America

| Geese ( ''Branta canadensis'' , ''Answer spp.'' , ''Branta spp.'' )

| Phenological mismatch developing between the berries and migration timing may mean that Canadian geese no longer stop near some communities ( [[#Downing--2011|Downing and Cuerrier, 2011]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Arctic and northern regions

| Berries

( ''Vaccinium spp.'' , ''Rubus spp.'' and others)

| Berries are among the most important and widely consumed wild foods of plant origins in Arctic and northern regions ( [[#Vaara--2013|Vaara et al., 2013]] ; [[#Hupp--2015|Hupp et al., 2015]] ; [[#Boulanger-Lapointe--2019|Boulanger-Lapointe et al., 2019]] ).

Berry production will be impacted by climate change, including snow cover, rainfall, soil moisture, air temperature and availability of insect pollinators ( [[#Herman-Mercer--2020|Herman-Mercer et al., 2020]] ) and possible risk from sea-level-rise-associated soil salinisation ( [[#Cozzetto--2013|Cozzetto et al., 2013]] ).

Increased growth of woody shrub vegetation, driven by increased temperatures, can also make moving across the land difficult, impairing access to berry patches ( [[#Boulanger-Lapointe--2019|Boulanger-Lapointe et al., 2019]] ). Conversely, a recent modelling experiment suggested that the &gt;2°C warming experienced by Arctic communities over the past three decades has had minimal impact on overall trail access ( [[#Ford--2019|Ford et al., 2019]] ).

In Alaska, communities perceive berry abundance as declining and/or becoming more variable ( [[#Kellogg--2010|Kellogg et al., 2010]] ; [[#Hupp--2015|Hupp et al., 2015]] ). In a Gwich’in community in Canada, [[#Parlee--2005|Parlee and Berkes (2005)]] recorded that local women perceived climate change, especially extreme weather events, as the greatest risk to traditional berry patches (cranberry, blueberry and cloudberry).

The expansion of trees and shrubs may cause shading and negatively impact the productivity of berry plants ( [[#Downing--2011|Downing and Cuerrier, 2011]] ; [[#Lévesque--2012|Lévesque et al., 2012]] ).

Berries are predicted to be increasingly susceptible to negative impacts of invasive species (which compete for pollinators) ( [[#Spellman--2012|Spellman and Swenson, 2012]] ) and infections ( [[#Turner--2009|Turner and Clifton, 2009]] ) as climate change progresses. Suitable area of huckleberry ( ''Vaccinium membranaceum'' ) would shrink by 5–40% by the end of the 21st century ( [[#Prevéy--2020|Prevéy et al., 2020]] ).

Phenological shifts are also important. Many communities report changes in phenology including failed ripening or ‘all of the berries are ripening at the same time’ ( [[#Turner--2009|Turner and Clifton, 2009]] ; [[#Herman-Mercer--2020|Herman-Mercer et al., 2020]] ). Competition with growing populations of geese is viewed by many communities to be an important threat to berry harvesting. ( [[#Boulanger-Lapointe--2019|Boulanger-Lapointe et al., 2019]] ). In Labrador, Canada, changes in permafrost, vegetation, water and weather have had an impact on cloudberry (bakeapple) productivity, phenology and patch fragmentation. Moreover, changes in summer settlement patterns (which are now farther from berry patches) are making it more difficult for people to respond to variations in growth and timing ( [[#Anderson--2018|Anderson et al., 2018]] ).

In Montana, USA, Crow Nation elders have noted that many of their important berry resources have been impacted by climate change, either because they bud earlier and are then vulnerable to cold snaps, or the timing of fruit production has changed (with many now ripening at the same time) ( [[#Doyle--2013|Doyle et al., 2013]] ). Similarly, the Wabanaki Nations in Maine and Eastern Canada worry that climate change will impact berry resources already under pressure from dwindling territory and pollution ( [[#Lynn--2013|Lynn et al., 2013]] ).

| ''High confidence''

|-
| North America (Washington State, USA)

| Salmon ( ''Salmonidae'' )

| Indigenous communities in Washington State, USA report devastation of their salmon fishery due to loss of glacial run off and associated warming river and stream temperatures; potential damage to shellfish resources due to sea level rise and ocean acidification ( [[#Lynn--2013|Lynn et al., 2013]] ). The Karuk people in California have also experienced losses in salmon ( [[#Lynn--2013|Lynn et al., 2013]] ; [[#Vinyeta--2016|Vinyeta et al., 2016]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| North America (California)

| Acorns from oak trees ( ''Querus)''

| In the arid southwest of the USA, wild foods are less widely consumed today, but their revitalisation is important to identity and well-being of many Indigenous People. The Karuk people of the Klamath River in California have experienced an almost complete loss of two key traditional wild foods: salmon and acorns, foods which once made up 50% of a traditional Karuk diet ( [[#Lynn--2013|Lynn et al., 2013]] ; [[#Vinyeta--2016|Vinyeta et al., 2016]] ), as well as huckleberry ( [[#Vinyeta--2016|Vinyeta et al., 2016]] ). Using regional climate models, Kueppers (2005) showed a major reduction in the range of two species of oak in California that are used in traditional diets. Increasing frequency of severe fires in the western USA threaten a number of traditional wild food resources, especially acorns ( [[#Vinyeta--2016|Vinyeta et al., 2016]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| North America

| Wild rice

( ''Zizania spp'' .)

| Significant reductions in wild rice area in Great Lakes have been associated with mining, dams and other activities, but climate change may lead to further reductions ( [[#Cozzetto--2013|Cozzetto et al., 2013]] ; [[#Lynn--2013|Lynn et al., 2013]] ).

| ''High confidence''

|-
| North America

| Camas tuber

( ''Camassia quamash'' )

| Historic changes in fire regimes, linked to changes in climate, are believed to have altered availability of the important camas tuber ( ''Camassia quamash'' ) ( [[#Lepofsky--2005|Lepofsky et al., 2005]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| North America

| Wapato tuber

( ''Sagittaria latifolia'' )

| The aquatic ''Sagittaria latifolia'' (the roots of which are consumed by Indigenous groups across North America) is vulnerable to both water salinity and temperature ( [[#Delesalle--1994|Delesalle and Blum, 1994]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| North America

| Springbeauty ( ''Claytonia lanceolate'' )

| ''Claytonia lanceolata'' is particularly vulnerable to changes in snow melt and other climatic changes owing to advancement in the flowering ( [[#Renner--2018|Renner and Zohner, 2018]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| North America

| Seaweed ( ''Porphyra abbottiae'' , among others)

| In British Columbia, Canada, Indigenous People Gitga’at elders noted that the ripening of an important edible seaweed ( ''Porphyra abbottiae'' ) had rarely synchronised with weather patterns that enabled them to process it in the traditional way (drying on rocks and then ripening and re-drying) ( [[#Turner--2009|Turner and Clifton, 2009]] ).

| ''Low confidence''

|-
| Africa

| Baobab ( ''Adansonia digitata'' )

| Baobab is thought to be vulnerable to climate change because it is long-lived, it can take up to 23 years to start fruiting and leaf harvesting is often so intensive that it depresses fruit production. Modelling study using different records model shows that the percentage of present distribution predicted to be suitable in the future ranged from 5% to 91% ( [[#Sanchez--2011|Sanchez et al., 2011]] ).

| ''Low confidence''

|-
| Africa

| Shea ( ''Vitellaria paradoxa'' )

| Shea ( ''Vitellaria paradoxa'' ) was expanded through human intervention and is linked to human migration; fruit traits such as fruit size and shape, pulp sweetness and kernel fat content are determined both by temperature and rainfall, as well as human selection for preferred traits ( [[#Maranz--2003|Maranz and Wiesman, 2003]] ). There is limited and conflicting evidence of the impacts of climatic conditions and future projected climate variations on ''V. paradoxa'' ( [[#Tom-Dery--2018|Tom-Dery et al., 2018]] ). Mixed evidence of the impact of climate and rainfall on fruit production and timing is reported ( [[#Tom-Dery--2018|Tom-Dery et al., 2018]] ). Fruit production was negatively correlated with mean annual temperature and positively correlated with annual rainfall ( [[#Bondé--2019|Bondé et al., 2019]] ).

| ''Limited evidence'' , ''medium agreement''

|-
| North Africa

(Morocco)

| Argan ( ''Argania spinosa'' )

| Climate change projections suggest a 32% decrease in habitat suitable for ''Argania spinosa'' under some scenarios ( [[#Alba-Sánchez--2015|Alba-Sánchez et al., 2015]] ; [[#Moukrim--2019|Moukrim et al., 2019]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Asia (Nepal)

| Fruit species and vegetables (e.g., ''Asparagus racemosus'' , ''Urticadioica'' )

| In Nepal, Thapa (2015) reports phenological changes in semi-domesticated fruit species, as well as decreased availability of a number of wild plants that can be consumed as vegetables.

| ''Limited evidence'' , ''medium agreement''

|-
| Worldwide, most important in Europe and Asia

| Mushrooms

| Wild mushrooms production (including truffles) is closely linked to climate factors including temperature and precipitation as well as tree growth and carbohydrate production ( [[#Tahvanainen--2016|Tahvanainen et al., 2016]] ). Some species are sensitive to high temperatures ( [[#Büntgen--2012|Büntgen et al., 2012]] ; [[#Le%20Tacon--2014|Le Tacon et al., 2014]] ; [[#Ágreda--2015|Ágreda et al., 2015]] ; [[#Bradai--2015|Bradai et al., 2015]] ; [[#Taye--2016|Taye et al., 2016]] ; [[#Alday--2017|Alday et al., 2017]] ; [[#Karavani--2018|Karavani et al., 2018]] ; [[#Büntgen--2019|Büntgen et al., 2019]] ; [[#Thomas--2019|Thomas and Buntgen, 2019]] ). Models for some varieties suggest ‘declines of 78–100% in European truffle production are likely for 2071–2100’ ( [[#Thomas--2019|Thomas and Buntgen, 2019]] ). For some species in northern Europe, the season is expanding (starting earlier and/or ending later), likely linked to warming ( [[#Büntgen--2012|Büntgen et al., 2012]] ; [[#Le%20Tacon--2014|Le Tacon et al., 2014]] ; [[#Ágreda--2015|Ágreda et al., 2015]] ; [[#Bradai--2015|Bradai et al., 2015]] ; [[#Taye--2016|Taye et al., 2016]] ; [[#Alday--2017|Alday et al., 2017]] ; [[#Karavani--2018|Karavani et al., 2018]] ; [[#Büntgen--2019|Büntgen et al., 2019]] ; [[#Thomas--2019|Thomas and Buntgen, 2019]] ).

Matsutake mushroom ( ''Tricholoma matsutake'' ), highly prized in China, is sensitive to timing and amount of precipitation and temperature ( [[#Yang--2012|Yang et al., 2012]] ), and suitable habitat for this species is predicted to significantly decrease and highly suitable habitat to nearly disappear under various climate change scenarios ( [[#Guo--2017|Guo et al., 2017]] ).

| ''High confidence''

|-
| North America

(California)

| Acorns, nuts and berries and other fire-dependent wild foods

| Low-intensity traditional burning practices increased pyro-diversity ( [[#Vinyeta--2016|Vinyeta et al., 2016]] ). Climate change will exacerbate the risks posed by exotic pathogens that attack oak species and further reduce access to acorns as well as other foods founds in oak ecosystems ( [[#Voggesser--2013|Voggesser et al., 2013]] ).

| ''High confidence''

|-
| South America (Amazon region)

| Aguaje, ( ''Mauritia felxuosa'' ) '','' Brazilian nut ( ''Bertholletiaexcelsa'' ), fishing and hunting in general

| Local communities perceived a lower yield of aguaje due to drought ( [[#Hofmeijer--2013|Hofmeijer et al., 2013]] ). In another study from the Colombian Amazon, wild food use was reported to be vulnerable to extreme climate events which impact species migration patterns or restrict access to fishing and hunting rounds ( [[#Torres-Vitolas--2019|Torres-Vitolas et al., 2019]] ). In some humid regions, the range of some wild food species may be extended by climate change, such as the Brazilian nut ( ''Bertholletiaexcelsa'' ) ( [[#Thomas--2014|Thomas et al., 2014]] ).

| ''Medium confidence''

|-
| Small islands (Papua New Guinea)

| Sweet potato

| Increases in the ENSO were associated with drought which increased sweet potato losses ( [[#Jacka--2016|Jacka, 2016]] ) in highlands humid forest.

| ''Limited evidence'' , ''medium agreement''

|-
| Australasia (Australia)

| General wild foods

| Aboriginal communities in North Queensland, a humid tropical region of northern Australia, reported some climate impacts on wild foods, although primarily for marine resources and those found in dry forest ecosystems ( [[#McIntyre-Tamwoy--2013|McIntyre-Tamwoy et al., 2013]] ).

| ''Limited evidence'' , ''medium agreement''

|-
| Asia (Indonesia)

| Sago ( ''Metroxylon sagu'' )

| People in a sago-dependent community in Papua Indonesia viewed climate variation as less important than other factors (logging, mining, infrastructure), but still expressed concerns about salinity of water supplies, floods and reduced hunting success ( [[#Boissière--2013|Boissière et al., 2013]] ).

| ''Limited evidence'' , ''medium agreement''

|}

Climate-change-induced impacts of access to wild foods are also of concern in Arctic regions ( ''high confidence'' ). Coastal and inland communities of Alaska found that 60% of climate impacts on food security listed by hunters were related to access ( [[#Brinkman--2016|Brinkman et al., 2016]] ). Reduced duration, thickness and quality of sea ice are some of the most cited impacts of climate change on wild food consumption ( [[#Ford--2009|Ford, 2009]] ; [[#Laidler--2009|Laidler et al., 2009]] ; [[#Downing--2011|Downing and Cuerrier, 2011]] ; [[#Huntington--2017|Huntington et al., 2017]] ; [[#Nuttall--2017|Nuttall, 2017]] ; [[#Fawcett--2018|Fawcett et al., 2018]] ; [[#Ford--2018|Ford et al., 2018]] ; [[#Markon--2018|Markon et al., 2018]] ). Lack of snowfall reduces and delays the ability to travel on land using snowmobiles ( [[#Downing--2011|Downing and Cuerrier, 2011]] ), impacting safety of travel, time needed and costs of accessing wild foods ( [[#Cold--2020|Cold et al., 2020]] ).

Rising temperatures and humidity are also impacting wild food storage and increasing the risk of food-borne diseases ( [[#Cozzetto--2013|Cozzetto et al., 2013]] ; [[#Nuttall--2017|Nuttall, 2017]] ; [[#Markon--2018|Markon et al., 2018]] ). Changes in AT and humidity can mean that whale and fish meat no longer dry properly, or meat may spoil before hunters can get it home ( [[#Downing--2011|Downing and Cuerrier, 2011]] ; [[#Nuttall--2017|Nuttall, 2017]] ). Traditional permafrost ice cellars are no longer reliable ( [[#Downing--2011|Downing and Cuerrier, 2011]] ; [[#Nyland--2017|Nyland et al., 2017]] ; [[#Herman-Mercer--2019|Herman-Mercer et al., 2019]] ). Climate-related environmental change compounded with social, economic, cultural and political change have had complex but overall negative impacts on wild foods (Section [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/5#CCP6.4 CCP6.4] , [[#Lujan--2018|Lujan et al., 2018]] ) .

Communities across other (non-Arctic) parts of North America and Europe also report declining availability of wild foods, with climate change among the perceived drivers for decline ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Table 5.10, [[#Serrasolses--2016|Serrasolses et al., 2016]] ; [[#Smith--2019a|Smith et al., 2019a]] ). Even when climate change may not always be the primary driver of loss of these wild food resources, climate may interact with other stressors to exacerbate loss of wild foods ( [[#Lynn--2013|Lynn et al., 2013]] ; [[#Reo--2013|Reo and Parker, 2013]] ).

<div id="5.7.4.2.2" class="h4-container"></div>

<span id="wild-food-in-the-arid-and-semi-arid-environments"></span>
===== 5.7.4.2.2 Wild food in the arid and semi-arid environments =====

<div id="h4-5-siblings" class="h4-siblings"></div>

Wild foods are also impacted by climate change in arid and semi-arid landscapes around the world ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ) (Table 5.10). A number of wild species are important traditional foods of Indigenous Peoples or local communities across arid regions of North America ( [[#Messer--1972|Messer, 1972]] ; [[#Kuhnlein--1977|Kuhnlein and Calloway, 1977]] ; [[#Santos-Fita--2012|Santos-Fita et al., 2012]] ; [[#Vinyeta--2016|Vinyeta et al., 2016]] ), South America (e.g., Argentina; [[#Ladio--2004|Ladio and Lozada, 2004]] ; [[#Altrichter--2006|Altrichter, 2006]] ; [[#Eyssartier--2011|Eyssartier et al., 2011]] ), Australia ( [[#Scelza--2014|Scelza et al., 2014]] ), the Mediterranean Basin ( [[#Hadjichambis--2008|Hadjichambis et al., 2008]] ; [[#Powell--2014|Powell et al., 2014]] ), India and the Himalayas ( [[#Pingle--1975|Pingle, 1975]] ; [[#Gupta--1980|Gupta and Sen, 1980]] ; [[#Delang--2006|Delang, 2006]] ; [[#Bhatt--2017|Bhatt et al., 2017]] ).

Wild foods such as baobab, shea and nere from plants and animals make an important contribution to diets and nutrition in arid and semi-arid regions of Africa ( [[#Boedecker--2014|Boedecker et al., 2014]] ; [[#Leßmeister--2015|Leßmeister et al., 2015]] ; Bélanger and Pilling, 2019) and are being impacted by climate change ( [[#Moseley--2015|Moseley et al., 2015]] ; [[#Sango--2015|Sango and Godwell, 2015]] ; [[#Hitchcock--2016|Hitchcock, 2016]] ) (see Chapter 9). There has been little published research on the impacts of climate change on wild food in arid regions of Australia, although Aboriginal elders in one report suggested that climate-related changes are impacting wild food ( [[#Memmott--2013|Memmott et al., 2013]] ).

<div id="5.7.4.2.3" class="h4-container"></div>

<span id="wild-food-in-tropical-humid-environments"></span>
===== 5.7.4.2.3 Wild food in tropical humid environments =====

<div id="h4-6-siblings" class="h4-siblings"></div>

Wild foods are important to many communities that live in and adjacent to humid tropical forests, but climate change impacts are mixed (Table 5.10, [[#Dounias--2007|Dounias et al., 2007]] ; [[#Colfer--2008|Colfer, 2008]] ; [[#Powell--2015|Powell et al., 2015]] ; [[#Rowland--2017|Rowland et al., 2017]] ; [[#Reyes-García--2019|Reyes-García et al., 2019]] ). In some humid tropical forest regions, bushmeat is particularly important ( [[#Golden--2011|Golden et al., 2011]] ; [[#Nasi--2011|Nasi et al., 2011]] ; [[#Fa--2015|Fa et al., 2015]] ; [[#Powell--2015|Powell et al., 2015]] ; [[#Rowland--2017|Rowland et al., 2017]] ). In humid tropical regions, the impact of climate change on wild food availability, access and consumption is currently unclear and research is limited. There are, however, important interrelationships between climate change and wild food use in humid forests. For example, the loss of large mammals to bushmeat consumption and global trade will likely slow the regeneration of tropical forests in which a large number of tree species are dependent on large mammals for seed dispersal ( [[#Brodie--2009|Brodie and Gibbs, 2009]] ). Conversely, others argue that bushmeat provides local communities with an important incentive to support local maintenance of forest cover and, thus, carbon sequestration ( [[#Bennett--2007|Bennett et al., 2007]] ).

<div id="5.8" class="h1-container"></div>

<span id="ocean-based-and-inland-fisheries-systems"></span>