Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-10 (section)

== Appendix 10.2: Data and Assumptions for Lifecycle Cost Analysis ==

<div id="Fuel cost ranges" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="fuel-cost-ranges"></span>
=== Fuel cost ranges ===

<div id="h2-44-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

For diesel, a range of USD0.5–2.5 per litre is used based on historic diesel costs across all OECD countries reported in the IEA Energy Prices and Taxes Statistics database ( [[#IEA--2021c|IEA 2021c]] ) since 2010. The lower end of this range is consistent with the minimum projected value from the 2021 US Annual Energy Outlook (low oil price scenario, USD0.55 l –1 ) ( [[#US%20Energy%20Information%20Administration--2021|US Energy Information Administration 2021]] ). The upper end of the range encompasses both the maximum diesel price observed in the 2021 US Annual Energy Outlook projections (high oil price scenario, USD1.5 l –1 ) ( [[#US%20Energy%20Information%20Administration--2021|US Energy Information Administration 2021]] ), and the diesel price that would correspond to the 2020 IEA World Energy Outlook crude oil price projections (Stated Policies scenario) ( [[#IEA--2020b|IEA 2020b]] ), assuming the historical price relationship between crude oil and diesel is maintained (USD1.5 l –1 ). For reference, the IEA reports current world-average automotive diesel costs to be around 1 USD l –1 ( [[#IEA--2021d|IEA 2021d]] ). The selected range also captures the current range of production costs for values for bio-based and synthetic diesels (EUR51–144 MWh –1 , corresponding to USD0.6–1.70 l –1 ), which are generally still higher than wholesale petroleum diesel costs (EUR30–50 MWh –1 , corresponding to USD0.35–0.6 l –1 ), as reported by IEA ( [[#IEA--2020c|IEA 2020c]] ). This range also encompasses costs for synthesised electrofuels from electrolytic hydrogen, as reported in [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-6|Chapter 6]] (USD1.6 l –1 ).

The range of electricity costs used here is consistent with the range of levelised cost of electricity estimates presented in [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-6|Chapter 6]] (USD20–200 MWh –1 ).

For hydrogen, a range of USD1 to USD13 per kilogram is used. The upper end of this range corresponds approximately to reported retail costs in the US ( [[#Eudy--2018b|Eudy and Post 2018b]] ; [[#Argonne%20National%20Laboratory--2020|Argonne National Laboratory 2020]] ; [[#Burnham--2021|Burnham et al. 2021]] ). Despite the high upper bound, lower costs (USD6–7 kg –1 ) are already consistent with recent cost estimates of hydrogen produced via electrolysis (Chapter 6) and current production cost estimates from IRENA ( [[#IRENA--2020|IRENA 2020]] ). The lower end of the range (USD1 kg –1 ) corresponds to projected future price decreases for electrolytic hydrogen ( [[#BNEF--2020|BNEF 2020]] ; [[#Hydrogen%20Council--2020|Hydrogen Council 2020]] ; [[#IRENA--2020|IRENA 2020]] ), and is consistent with projections from [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-6|Chapter 6]] for the low end of long-term future prices for fossil hydrogen with CCS.

<div id="Vehicle efficiencies" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="vehicle-efficiencies"></span>
=== Vehicle efficiencies ===

<div id="h2-45-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

The vehicle efficiencies used in developing the lifecycle cost estimates were derived from the harmonised ranges used to develop lifecycle GHG estimates and are presented in Tables 10.9 to 10.14.

<div id="Other inputs to bus cost model" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="other-inputs-to-bus-cost-model"></span>
=== Other inputs to bus cost model ===

<div id="h2-46-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

For buses, a 40-foot North American transit bus with a passenger capacity of 50, lifetime of 15 years, and an annual distance travelled of 72,400 km based on data in the ANL AFLEET model ( [[#Argonne%20National%20Laboratory--2020|Argonne National Laboratory 2020]] ) is assumed. Maintenance costs were assumed to be USD0.63 per km for ICEV buses and USD0.38 per km for BEV and ICEV buses, also based on data from the AFLEET model ( [[#Argonne%20National%20Laboratory--2020|Argonne National Laboratory 2020]] ). For ICEV and BEV purchase costs, data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory ( [[#Johnson--2020|Johnson et al. 2020]] ) is used for bounding ranges (USD430,000 to 500,000 for ICEV and USD579,000 to 1,200,000 for BEV), which encompass the default values from AFLEET model ( [[#Argonne%20National%20Laboratory--2020|Argonne National Laboratory 2020]] ). Note that wider ranges are available in the literature (e.g., as low as USD120,000 per bus in [[#Burnham--2021|Burnham et al. (2021)]] and [[#Harris--2020|Harris et al. (2020)]] ); but these are not included in the sensitivity analysis to avoid conflating disparate vehicles. For FCV buses, the upper bound of the purchase price range (USD1,200,000) represents current costs in the US ( [[#Argonne%20National%20Laboratory--2020|Argonne National Laboratory 2020]] ; [[#Eudy--2020|Eudy and Post 2020]] ), and the lower bound represents the target future value from the US Department of Energy ( [[#Eudy--2020|Eudy and Post 2020]] ).

<div id="Other inputs to rail cost model" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="other-inputs-to-rail-cost-model"></span>
=== Other inputs to rail cost model ===

<div id="h2-47-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

For freight and passenger rail, powertrain and vehicle operation and maintenance costs in USD per km from the IEA Future of Rail report ( [[#IEA--2019e|IEA 2019e]] ) (IEA Figure 2.14 for passenger rail and IEA Figure 2.15 for freight rail) are used as a proxy for non-fuel costs. The ranges span conservative and forward-looking cases. In addition, the range for BEV rail ranges encompass short- and long-distance trains – corresponding to 100–200 km for passenger rail, and 400–750 km for freight rail. Note that all values exclude the base vehicle costs, but they are expected not to be significant as they are amortised over the lifetime distance travelled. For freight rail, a network that is representative of North America is assumed, with a payload of 2800 tonnes per train (IEA Figure 1.17), assumed to be utilised at 100%, with a lifetime of 10 years, and an average distance travelled of 120,000 km yr –1 . For BEV freight rail, the range in powertrain costs is driven by battery costs of USD250–600 kWh –1 , while for FCV freight rail, the range in powertrain costs is driven by fuel cell stack costs of USD50–1000 kW –1 . For passenger rail, a network that is representative of Europe is assumed, with an average occupancy of 180 passengers per train (IEA Figure 1.14), with a lifetime of 10 years, and an average distance travelled of 115,000 km per year.

<div id="Other inputs to truck cost model" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="other-inputs-to-truck-cost-model"></span>
=== Other inputs to truck cost model ===

<div id="h2-48-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

Capital cost ranges vary widely in the literature depending on the exact truck model, size and other assumptions. For ICEVs in this analysis, the lower bound (USD90,000) corresponds to the 2020 estimate for China from [[#Moultak--2017|Moultak et al. (2017)]] , and the upper bound (USD250,000) corresponds to the 2030 projection for the US from the same study. These values encompass the full range reported by Argonne ( [[#Burnham--2021|Burnham et al. 2021]] ). The lower bound BEV cost (USD120,000) is taken from 2030 projections for China ( [[#Moultak--2017|Moultak et al. 2017]] ) and the upper bound (USD780,000) is taken from 2020 cost estimates in the US (class 8 sleeper cab tractor) ( [[#Burnham--2021|Burnham et al. 2021]] ). The lower bound for FCV trucks (USD130,000) corresponds to the 2050 estimate for class 8 sleeper cab tractors from Argonne National Laboratory and the upper bound (USD290,000) corresponds to the 2020 estimate from the same study ( [[#Burnham--2021|Burnham et al. 2021]] ). These values span the full range reported by [[#Moultak--2017|Moultak et al. (2017)]] for the US, Europe and China from 2020–2030.

The analysis uses a truck lifetime of 10 years and annual distance travelled of 140,000 km based on [[#Burnham--2021|Burnham et al. (2021)]] . An effective payload of 17 tonnes (80% of maximum payload of 21 tonnes) is assumed based on reported average effective payload submitted by Argonne National Laboratory in response to the IPCC LCA data collection call. A discount rate of 3% is used, based on [[#Burnham--2021|Burnham et al. (2021)]] and consistent with the social discount rate from Chapter 3. Maintenance costs are assumed to be USD0.15 km –1 for ICEV trucks and USD0.09 km –1 for BEV and FCV trucks, as reported in [[#Burnham--2021|Burnham et al. (2021)]] .

<div id="Appendix 10.3: Line of Sight for Feasibility Assessment" class="h1-container"></div>

<span id="appendix-10.3-line-of-sight-for-feasibility-assessment"></span>