Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-10 (section)

=== Fuel cost ranges ===

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For diesel, a range of USD0.5–2.5 per litre is used based on historic diesel costs across all OECD countries reported in the IEA Energy Prices and Taxes Statistics database ( [[#IEA--2021c|IEA 2021c]] ) since 2010. The lower end of this range is consistent with the minimum projected value from the 2021 US Annual Energy Outlook (low oil price scenario, USD0.55 l –1 ) ( [[#US%20Energy%20Information%20Administration--2021|US Energy Information Administration 2021]] ). The upper end of the range encompasses both the maximum diesel price observed in the 2021 US Annual Energy Outlook projections (high oil price scenario, USD1.5 l –1 ) ( [[#US%20Energy%20Information%20Administration--2021|US Energy Information Administration 2021]] ), and the diesel price that would correspond to the 2020 IEA World Energy Outlook crude oil price projections (Stated Policies scenario) ( [[#IEA--2020b|IEA 2020b]] ), assuming the historical price relationship between crude oil and diesel is maintained (USD1.5 l –1 ). For reference, the IEA reports current world-average automotive diesel costs to be around 1 USD l –1 ( [[#IEA--2021d|IEA 2021d]] ). The selected range also captures the current range of production costs for values for bio-based and synthetic diesels (EUR51–144 MWh –1 , corresponding to USD0.6–1.70 l –1 ), which are generally still higher than wholesale petroleum diesel costs (EUR30–50 MWh –1 , corresponding to USD0.35–0.6 l –1 ), as reported by IEA ( [[#IEA--2020c|IEA 2020c]] ). This range also encompasses costs for synthesised electrofuels from electrolytic hydrogen, as reported in [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-6|Chapter 6]] (USD1.6 l –1 ).

The range of electricity costs used here is consistent with the range of levelised cost of electricity estimates presented in [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-6|Chapter 6]] (USD20–200 MWh –1 ).

For hydrogen, a range of USD1 to USD13 per kilogram is used. The upper end of this range corresponds approximately to reported retail costs in the US ( [[#Eudy--2018b|Eudy and Post 2018b]] ; [[#Argonne%20National%20Laboratory--2020|Argonne National Laboratory 2020]] ; [[#Burnham--2021|Burnham et al. 2021]] ). Despite the high upper bound, lower costs (USD6–7 kg –1 ) are already consistent with recent cost estimates of hydrogen produced via electrolysis (Chapter 6) and current production cost estimates from IRENA ( [[#IRENA--2020|IRENA 2020]] ). The lower end of the range (USD1 kg –1 ) corresponds to projected future price decreases for electrolytic hydrogen ( [[#BNEF--2020|BNEF 2020]] ; [[#Hydrogen%20Council--2020|Hydrogen Council 2020]] ; [[#IRENA--2020|IRENA 2020]] ), and is consistent with projections from [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-6|Chapter 6]] for the low end of long-term future prices for fossil hydrogen with CCS.

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