Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-4 (section)

==== 4.4.1.1 Framing the Problem ====

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What have we learned so far? As highlighted above, despite 30 years of UNFCCC and growing contributions by non-state actors, the emissions gap keeps growing (Sections 4.2.2 and 4.2.3). Mitigation conceived as incremental change is not enough. Meeting ambitious mitigation goals entails rapid, non-marginal changes in production and consumption patterns (Sections 4.2.4 and 4.2.5). Taking another approach, we have seen in [[#4.3|Section 4.3]] that shifting development pathways broadens the scope for mitigation (Sections 4.3.1 and 4.3.2) and offers more opportunities than mitigation alone to combine mitigation with the realisation of other SDGs ( [[#4.3.1|Section 4.3.1]] and Cross-Chapter Box 5 in this chapter).

A practical way forward is to combine shifting development pathways and accelerating mitigation ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ). This means introducing multi-objective policy packages and sequences with climate and development components that both target mitigation directly and create the conditions for shifts in development pathways that will help accelerate further mitigation down the line, and meet other development objectives. Since development pathways result from myriad decisions from multiple actors ( [[#4.3.1|Section 4.3.1]] ), coordination across countries and with non-state actors is essential.

The literature does not provide a handbook on how to accomplish the above. However, analysis of past experience as well as understanding of how societies function yield insights that the present section aims at presenting. Human history has seen multiple transformation of economies due to path-breaking innovations ( [[#Michaelowa--2018|Michaelowa et al. 2018]] ), like the transformation of the energy system from traditional biomass to fossil fuels or from steam to electricity ( [[#Fouquet--2010|Fouquet 2010]] , 2016a; [[#Sovacool--2016|Sovacool 2016]] ). [[#Fouquet--2016b|Fouquet (2016b)]] and [[#Smil--2016|Smil (2016)]] argue that even the most rapid global transformations have taken several decades. Enabling transformational change implies to create now the conditions that lead to that transformation ( [[#Díaz--2019|Díaz et al. 2019]] ). The starting point is that there is no single factor determining such a transformation. Rather a range of enabling conditions can combine in a co-evolutionary process. Amongst the conditions that have been cited in the literature are higher levels of innovation, multilevel governance, transformative policy regimes or profound behavioural transformation ( [[#Rockström--2017|Rockström et al. 2017]] ; [[#IPCC--2018a|IPCC 2018a]] ; [[#Geels--2018|Geels et al. 2018]] ; [[#Kriegler--2018|Kriegler et al. 2018]] ). It might be possible to put in place some of the above conditions rapidly, while others may take longer, thereby requiring an early start.

The present chapter uses the set of enabling conditions identified in the IPCC SR1.5 report, namely policy, governance and institutional capacity, finance, behaviour and lifestyles and innovation and technology ( [[#de%20Coninck--2018|de Coninck et al. 2018]] ). As Figure 4.8 illustrates, ''public policies'' are required to foster both accelerating mitigation and shifting development pathways. They are also vital to guide and provide the other enabling conditions (compare Table 4.12). Improved governance and enhanced institutional capacity facilitate the adoption of policies that accelerate mitigation and shift development pathways, with the potential to achieve multiple mitigation and development objectives. Finance is required both to accelerate mitigation and to shift development pathways. [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-15|Chapter 15]] argues that near term actions to shift the financial system over the next decade (2021–2030) are critically important and feasible, and that the immediate post-COVID recovery opens up opportunities to scale up financing from billions to trillions ( [[#Mawdsley--2018|Mawdsley 2018]] ) ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-15#15.6.7|Section 15.6.7]] ). As discussed in [[#4.2.5|Section 4.2.5]] , accelerated mitigation pathways encompass both rapid deployment of new technologies such as CCS or electric vehicles, as well as changes in consumption patterns: rapid deployment of mitigation ''technology'' and ''behaviour change'' are thus two enabling conditions to accelerated mitigation. Dynamics of deployment of technologies are relatively well known, pointing to specific, short-term action to accelerate innovation and deployment (Cross-Chapter Box 12 in Chapter 16), whereas dynamics of collective behaviour change is less well understood. Arguably, the latter also facilitates shifting development pathways.

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[[File:79b6820e113b1c481b01733e9e221077 IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Figure_4_8.png]]

'''Figure 4.8 | Enabling conditions for accelerating mitigation and shifting development pathways towards''' '''sustainability.'''

Individual enabling conditions are discussed at length in [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-5|Chapter 5]] (behaviour change), 13 (policies, governance and institutional capacity), 15 (finance) and 16 (innovation). The purpose of the discussion below is to draw operational implications from these chapters for action, taking into account the focus of the present Chapter on action at the national level in the near- and mid-term, and its special emphasis on shifting development pathways in addition to accelerated mitigation.

The rest of the Section is organised as follows. Policy packages that combine climate and development policies are first discussed ( [[#4.4.1.2|Section 4.4.1.2]] ). The next sections are dedicated to the conditions that facilitate shifts in development pathways and accelerated mitigation: governance and institutions ( [[#4.4.1.3|Section 4.4.1.3]] ), financial resources ( [[#4.4.1.4|Section 4.4.1.4]] ), behaviour change ( [[#4.4.1.5|Section 4.4.1.5]] ) and innovation ( [[#4.4.1.6|Section 4.4.1.6]] ). Four examples of how climate and development policies can be combined to shift pathways and accelerate mitigation are then presented (Sections 4.4.1.7, 4.4.1.8, 4.4.1.9 and 4.4.1.10). [[#4.4.2|Section 4.4.2]] focuses specifically on how shifts in development pathways can deliver both mitigation and adaptation. Finally, [[#4.4.3|Section 4.4.3]] discusses risks and uncertainties associated with combining shifting development pathways and accelerating mitigation.

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